On message: The clear mantra from politicians

Josh Halliday, Guardian 10 April

The importance of staying at home and not making unnecessary journeys, including to older relatives, has been hammered home since the Covid-19 outbreak began.

Government ministers including Robert Jenrick have taken to the airwaves every day for weeks to urge the public to #StayHomeSaveLives, as the communities secretary put it in a tweet on Wednesday.

However, Jenrick travelled to visit his parents at the weekend, 40 miles from his own home. He said he went to drop off food and medicines. But that explanation is bound to come under scrutiny – given his own public utterances, which have included repeated pleas for people to turn to local communities to provide this kind of support.

The disclosure also comes just days after Scotland’s chief medical officer, Catherine Calderwood, resigned following the revelation that she had twice visited her holiday home in Earlsferry, Fife, and been to the local beach during the lockdown. Calderwood, who had been the public face of the “stay at home” mantra in Scotland, apologised for the breach before being asked to resign by the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon.

The government’s instructions could not be clearer: “Only go outside for food, health reasons or work (but only if you cannot work from home); if you go out, stay two metres away from other people at all times; wash your hands as soon as you get home.”

Crucially, they add: “Do not meet others, even friends or family. You can spread the virus even if you don’t have symptoms’

Regarding relatives, the instructions say: “You should not be visiting family members who do not live in your home. You should keep, in touch using phone or video calls.”

The document adds that if they are elderly or vulnerable “you may leave your house to help them, for example, by dropping shopping or medication at their door”. It is understood that Jenrick’s parents have had support from members of the local community.

The lockdown was introduced to stop the spread of the disease. It is designed to shield those who are most vulnerable, such as older people and those with underlying health issues.

Senior police officers have backed the warnings. Nottinghamshire police, whose patch covers Jenrick’s Newark seat, said this week: “We all need to contribute to the national effort to respond to coronavirus and reduce the spread of the disease. People need to stay at home, protect our NHS and save lives.”

PS Owl understands that Robert Jenrick is not in Nottinghamshire at his Newark constituency, but at his luxurious second home in Herefordshire – perhaps he is contemplating how to spend is £10k special expenses?

Humbug

Do as I say, not as I do.

Robert Jenerick, the Communities Secretary, visits his parents and his second home in Herefordshire, during lockdown. His constituency is in Newark.

Does he live on the same planet as the rest of us? Obviously not.

How long he stays in post before resigning will be a good test of how functional this government is with Boris Johnson now starting the early phase of his recovery.

David Churchill www.dailymail.co.uk

A cabinet minister has broken the lockdown rules twice, it emerged last night.

Robert Jenrick, a key player in the Government’s response to coronavirus, travelled 150 miles from London to his £1.1million second home in Herefordshire, where he is now living with his family.

He was also seen visiting his parents in Shropshire at the weekend, despite urging others to stay at home for ‘all bar the most essential activities’.

A source close to him defended the trip, saying he went to deliver food and medication and did not enter the house. 

Mr Jenrick moved  his family from London to his Grade I-listed Herefordshire mansion before the lockdown. He then delivered food and medicine to his parents in Shropshire 

The Communities Secretary moved to his Grade I-listed Herefordshire mansion after travel to second homes was banned. He told the Mail that he and his wife and their three young children, consider the Herefordshire property to be the family home.

He owns a £2.5million townhouse less than a mile from the Houses of Parliament and rents a property in his Newark constituency, which he bills taxpayers £2,000 a month for.

On March 23 new instructions were issued warning people to remain at their primary residence and not visit second homes ‘whether for isolation purposes or holidays’.

It added: ‘People should remain in their primary residence. Not taking these steps puts additional pressure on communities and services that are already at risk.’

Mr Jenrick gave a press conference in Downing Street on March 29, at which he updated the nation on the latest virus advice, before travelling to his Herefordshire property, where he has given several media interviews via video link.

Last night a Government source branded his behaviour ‘idiotic’.

However, another No 10 insider said he had given ‘a full account’ of himself, adding: ‘We are backing him.’

Steve Reed MP, Labour’s new communities spokesman, said: ‘It’s vitally important that ministers follow the rules they are setting for everybody else. MPs need to set an example to everyone about the importance of not moving around the country and if Robert Jenrick can’t provide a very good explanation as to why these trips were necessary then he needs to consider his position.’

Mr Jenrick insisted Eye Manor in Herefordshire, built by an 18th century slave trader, is seen as the family home, rather than their house in Westminster, despite needing to be there most of the week for his work. And speaking to the Mail on Sunday in 2014 ahead of winning his Newark seat, he claimed the couple were ‘almost sure’ they would sell Eye Manor and move to his constituency.

Explaining his decision last night, he told the Mail: ‘My house in Herefordshire is the place I, my wife and my young children consider to be our family home and my family were there before any restrictions on travel were announced.

‘I have been working in London on ministerial duties, putting in place the system to shield the group most vulnerable to coronavirus and organising the response at a local level. Once I was able to work from home it was right that I went home to do so and be with my wife and also help care for my three young children. By staying at home, we protect the NHS and help save lives. I will be staying at my family home until Government advice changes or if I am needed in person in Westminster before the parliamentary session resumes after the Easter recess.’

Mr Jenrick’s American wife, Michal Berkner, is a partner at City law firm Cooley LLP.

Last night the Guardian reported a witness saw Mr Jenrick in the front garden of his parents, who are 79 and 69, at the weekend. It is about an hour’s drive north from his Herefordshire home, which he bought in 2009. The Friday before he visited his parents he tweeted: ‘If you are considering going out this weekend, please don’t, unless it’s for work (where you cannot work from home), health reasons, food shopping or exercise. We need to stay at home to protect the NHS and save lives.’

Writing in the Mail on Sunday last month, Mr Jenrick warned that Britons must ‘make big sacrifices – especially today, on Mother’s Day’.

However, days before the lockdown was announced, Mr Jenrick and his family moved to his Grade 1-listed mansion near the parish church of St Peter & St Paul in Eye, Herefordshire

He added: ‘It’s so important that we speak to our loved ones as much as we can – whether that’s FaceTime or a phone call.

‘But for now, we must practise social distancing in order to tackle the spread of the virus. We need to stay at home, protect the NHS and save lives.’

Scotland’s chief medical officer, Catherine Calderwood, was forced to resign at the weekend after coming under fire for breaking rules by visiting her second home twice.

Mr Raab yesterday acknowledged the measures were ‘taking their toll’.

‘There are going to be lots of people who would normally be planning a family get together or just getting out in the sunshine,’ he added.

In the course of a few weeks we have gone from a “containment” strategy where an attempt was made to trace all Covid-19 cases to “mitigation” and then “suppression” . The containment phase was the only one with wide scale testing but it didn’t last long. In subsequent phases individuals exhibiting symptoms were told to self isolate.

As Owl understands it, in these phases, neither GPs nor NHS 111 (if you could get through) took any records of who thought they may have the virus. There are two obvious consequences: there is no one checking on patients to advise them, as Boris Johnson was, when to go to hospital (deterioration can be very rapid); and we haven’t a clue on how many people exhibited symptoms. 

Owl has more than a sneaking suspicion that resource constraints played a large part in what otherwise seems an inexplicable decision (not enough testing kits and not enough NHS 111 staff). Confused chains of command may also have contributed. It doesn’t look very well organised, remembering we had a two week start over most of Europe.

The Covid-19 tracker app tries to fill this vacuum. Here are more results.

(The tracker app is now being rolled out in the USA, another country that desperately needs data on the Covid-19 transmission.) 

www.expressandstar.com 

Researchers at King’s College London said there had been a drop in people reporting symptoms since April 1.

Researchers believe that the coronavirus lockdown is working as data from a tracker app suggests that the number of people aged 20-69 who are reporting Covid-19 symptoms has fallen from 1.9 million to 1.4 million across the UK.

The drop, by around 500,000 people since April 1, is indicated in analysis of data from the Covid Symptom Tracker app, which is used by more than two million people.

Contributors can track their daily health on the specially created app, which is also being used by healthcare and hospital workers nationwide.

The researchers behind the app, which was developed by a team at King’s College London, said their latest figures suggest that staying home is having a big impact on the spread of the virus in the UK.

Even though hospital admissions and deaths are still on the rise, we hope that these figures offer a much needed light at the end of the tunnel

Prof Tim Spector

They say the drop in new symptoms indicates that although the number of hospital admissions and deaths from Covid-19 are currently rising, they should start to fall in about two weeks’ time provided social distancing continues.

The team believes the two-week lag is caused by the delay between symptoms starting and becoming very severe.

Lead researcher, Professor Tim Spector from King’s College London, said: “It is really encouraging to see that the rate of new symptoms being reported is beginning to fall.

“Even though hospital admissions and deaths are still on the rise, we hope that these figures offer a much needed light at the end of the tunnel.

“We have been totally blown away by the public’s response to the app.

“On the first day we saw one million members of the public download it making it one of the most successful first days for an app ever, and already probably the UK’s largest citizen science project.

“The altruism of the UK public combined with modern technology is allowing us to rapidly collect huge amounts of invaluable data to help us better understand this deadly virus.”

Researchers say that their data concurs with what has been reported by NHS Digital, based on much smaller numbers.

This shows a decline in the number of calls to NHS 111 by people with Covid-19 symptoms since March 22.

While symptoms have been decreasing nationally, researchers say that their data shows that in all areas there are still many people with active symptoms.

The data also shows that individual areas vary.

Most of the country’s larger cities like London, Birmingham, Glasgow, and Liverpool continue to have very high levels of symptoms in the community, even this far into lockdown. South Wales is another hotspot.

There are significantly higher levels of symptoms across the Midlands, the North of England and southern Scotland than in the south-west of England.

The Covid Symptom Tracker app was developed by a King’s College London team in association with the Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre and healthcare start-up ZOE Global Limited.

To download the app, and to view an interactive map showing the suggested distribution of Covid-19 in your area, see covid.joinzoe.com

The move by the expenses watchdog has been described as ‘crude’ by critics amid concerns that the updated system and extra cash could be open to abuse.

Parliamentary staffers hit back at the criticism, saying it enabled them to work from home during the crisis.

Owl can’t see how this differs from the way that MPs work in their constituencies during week ends and during recesses.

www.thesun.co.uk

Sir Alistair Graham, a former chairman of the committee on standards in public life, hit out at the decision and said: “It seems to me a very crude approach.

“I think the public may be slightly puzzled as to why what looks like a generous payment of this nature has been made without first doing a bit more research into what the actual costs are.”

And James Roberts, political director of the Taxpayers’ Alliance, said: “While it’s reasonable for MPs’ staff to have access to the equipment they need to work from home during this crisis, politicians should take care to use the cash properly and avoid it being seen as a personal equipment slush fund.”

But parliamentary staffers hit back at the criticism, saying it enabled them to work from home during the crisis.

Alice Hopkins, a Conservative Parliamentary worker tweeted: “MPs & staff based in Westminster need Parliament IT equipment to be able to do their work securely from home.”

She added that “not a penny will go to MPs” but the backlash was filling staffers’ inboxes with “ill informed emails distracting us from emergency casework.”

She added: “My bosses & colleagues are working round the clock everyday to help 100s of constituents getting in touch.

“The people who are furious that we can work securely at home will also expect immediate help if they asked.”

The guidance, published last month, reads: “This is an uncertain and challenging time. Ipsa is committed to supporting MPs and their staff to carry on with their work as far as possible.”

In a letter to MPs, Richard Lloyd, the interim chairman of Ipsa, wrote: “We have agreed a series of immediate measures that we hope will provide you with the resources and flexibility to concentrate on your parliamentary duties and support your staff.”

Minister James Cleverly added after the story that he would “like to publicly thank my team (and all the others too) for the work that they are doing.

“I know they aren’t the only ones having a tough time but we MPs couldn’t help our constituents properly without them.

“They are helping and working with worried, often vulnerable people on my behalf, who are themselves dealing with unprecedented situations. They are researching, collating, and passing on advice and guidance in a fast changing environment.

“The volume of work has, understandably, increased over the last few weeks and they are working through it with all the additional challenges of working remotely.

“If things are a bit slower than usual, please bear with us as we navigate these uncharted waters. So to my team I say “thank you”.”

Labour staffer Amelia-Rose Tighe added: “I’ve had to procure secure laptops for staff to work at home.

“We have never had as many vulnerable people contact us needing help.

“Anyone bashing this- are you expecting staff to travel to work to help constituents or should we just ignore them?

“This money does NOT go in MPs pockets as the headline suggests, it goes into a budget to be spent on running an office. Other businesses are providing laptops for workers to work from home, why should MPs be made to refuse this?”

MPs have been offered an extra £10,000 each to support them while they work from home during the coronavirus pandemic, the poor darlings. The reason, during a national crisis when so many are losing their livelihoods, jobs, or on furlough, defeats Owl. No wonder Neil Parish thought he ought “earn his keep” by saying something even if it was all platitudes. 

Emanuele Midolo, Esther Webber  www.thetimes.co.uk 

The extra budget can be used to buy equipment such as laptops and printers for MPs and their staff, or to cover additional electricity, heating and phone bills. The money, which comes on top of the existing office budget of about £26,000 a year per MP, will be available until March.

The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (Ipsa), the expenses regulator, also relaxed rules on the evidence MPs must provide and suspended the 90-day window for claims.

The credit limit on MPs’ payment cards has been increased to £10,000, and they can now spend up to £5,000 in a single transaction.

One MP said he expected that the money would mostly be used to assist staff, as the majority of MPs would already have home offices.

However, there is nothing in the rules to prevent MPs claiming it for themselves.

Sir Alistair Graham, a former chairman of the committee on standards in public life, questioned the decision. “It seems to me a very crude approach [from Ipsa],” he said. “I think the public may be slightly puzzled as to why what looks like a generous payment of this nature has been made without first doing a bit more research into what the actual costs are.”

Several researchers contacted by The Times were unaware of the funding.

The guidance, published last month, reads: “This is an uncertain and challenging time. Ipsa is committed to supporting MPs and their staff to carry on with their work as far as possible.”

In a letter to MPs, Richard Lloyd, the interim chairman of Ipsa, wrote: “We have agreed a series of immediate measures that we hope will provide you with the resources and flexibility to concentrate on your parliamentary duties and support your staff.”

James Roberts, political director of the Taxpayers’ Alliance, which campaigns for lower public spending, said: “While it’s reasonable for MPs’ staff to have access to the equipment they need to work from home during this crisis, politicians should take care to use the cash properly and avoid it being seen as a personal equipment slush fund.”

The news follows the announcement last month of a £20 million increase in MPs’ staffing budgets. MPs received an extra £25,000 for their staff after a parliamentary review suggested that they were underpaid compared with workers in other sectors. Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker, said at the time that his staff were “struggling to cope”.

Ipsa was created in response to the parliamentary expenses scandal of 2009, after which several rules were introduced to limit MPs’ claims. These included a ban on the purchase of second homes and on claims for home refurbishments. Last year, however, a Sunday Times investigation revealed that MPs claimed 22 per cent more in expenses than they did in 2009. In 2017-18, the total claimed by MPs rose to a record £116 million.

At last Neil Parish breaks radio silence to say – very little.

In these unusual and fast moving times, Owl likes to consider if  “those in authority” are acting as “Leaders or Followers” 

Alas, Owl finds few Leaders.

Chris Carson  www.midweekherald.co.uk 

Tiverton and Honiton MP Neil Parish, says Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s battle with cornavirus shows the disease does not discriminate.

Mr Parish, whose consituency also includes Axminster, Seaton and Colyton, told The Midweek Herald today: “The PM is a larger than life character, full of energy and fighting spirit.

“My thoughts are with him and his family as he battles coronavirus, personally, and for the nation.

“It shows this virus does not discriminate.

“There is no cure – and we must stop the spread urgently to protect as many people as possible.

“As the weather improves, please do not lose sight of the horror that our NHS, social care workers, charity and community groups are facing on the frontline.

“Stay at home, minimise contact, wash your hands and follow government guidance to get us through this as quickly as possible.

“I know local and national government are working around the clock to provide support.

“If you require help or advice, please do not hesitate to get in touch.”

This report from radioexe starts with the same report of Devon County’s response, reported by Owl yesterday, but adds further information. The post below starts from report on what Independent group leader Cllr Frank Biederman said and then continues.

Council tells holidaymakers to stay away

www.radioexe.co.uk 

Independent group leader Cllr Frank Biederman said: “We need the Government to introduce huge fines for people who flout the regulations and we really need to emphasise that we are closed. The NHS can’t care for visitors as well as our own residents.

“The vast majority of our tourism businesses are closed and are taking a big financial hit for the benefit of the community but we need to crack down on those who refuse to do so.”

He added that any business who were still allowing holidaymakers to make bookings were a ‘disgrace’.

The council’s Cabinet Member for Economy and Skills, Cllr Rufus Gilbert, said that Trading Standards had done a test with Bookings.com and sampled 25 per cent of businesses on their website and phoned them, and all of them said they were not accepting booking.

But he added: “With Airbnb, we have had no such assurances. We have written to them but are not expecting a reply. We will do everything that we can, but just because some businesses are advertising online, it doesn’t mean that they are taking bookings.”

Cllr Paul Crabb though said he had gone onto the Airbnb and would have been able to book a detached villa for 13 guests in Ilfracombe for next week, which showed that not everyone was obeying the rules.

The district councils have the responsibility to close down any businesses that are open illegally.

It comes as the leaders of both South Hams and West Devon councils have written an open letter pleading with second home owners not to visit this Easter.

The open letter, written by Cllr Judy Pearce and Cllr Neil Jory, has the support of Cornwall Council, East Devon District Council, Mid Devon District Council, North Devon District Council, Teignbridge District Council and Torridge District Council.

It explains that while they value their contribution they make to local communities and the tourism economy, they are pleading with them to stay away as by travelling to their second home, they are putting the local population at risk.

As of Wednesday morning, across the Devon County Council administrative area, there had only been 236 cases positive COVID-19 cases, with a further 57 in Torbay and 102 in Plymouth. In total, 53 people in Devon have died in hospitals with coronavirus.

Residents in Devon are being asked to shop any businesses they think are trading illegally during the coronavirus lockdown. 

East Devon Reporter eastdevonnews.co.uk 

Trading Standards bosses in the county are aiming to crack down on any firms flouting the Government guidelines over Easter.

Whitehall last month ordered hospitality businesses to close and said that people should stay at home -with only ‘essential’ travel allowed.

With very few exceptions, all hotels, bed and breakfasts, hostels, holiday rentals, campsites and boarding houses should be closed for commercial use until further notice.

Additionally, restaurants, pubs, wine bars, cafes, canteens and other food and drink establishments must also close unless they are providing takeaway or delivery-only services.

Devon, Somerset and Torbay Trading Standards is reminding owners of guest houses, campsites and restaurants to remain closed to help combat coronavirus.

And it had issued a message to the public that – if you think a business is open illegally – it can be reported by email to tradingstandards@devon.gov.uk

Councillor Rufus Gilbert, Devon County Council (DCC) cabinet member with responsibility for Trading Standards, the economy and Visit Devon, said: “We understand that Easter is traditionally seen as the start of the holiday season for many businesses.

“However, as a country we all need to do everything we can to reduce the spread of coronavirus.

“We know that most businesses are abiding with the new rules. However, where businesses choose to ignore the Government, appropriate enforcement action will be taken.

“We recognise that the hospitality industry is facing real challenges in these uncertain times and we will continue to provide support for you via the Heart of South West Growth Hub.”

A DCC spokesman added: “Holidaymakers are also reminded that visiting the WestCountry for leisure is not regarded as essential travel and they risk receiving a fine from the police.”

Cornish residents have reported 650 holiday lets and second homeowners to the council in the past five days as people sneak into the county for the Easter weekend.

Will Humphries, Southwest Correspondent www.thetimes.co.uk

The council and Devon and Cornwall police are increasing their efforts to deter weekenders as police officers stop cars, caravans and motorhomes on the M5, A30 and at service stations and car parks at beauty spots. Visitors have been stopped on coastal paths in St Mawes, Rock and Padstow.

Rob Nolan, Cornwall council’s cabinet member for environment and public protection, said that most holiday accommodation owners had stopped trading but not all. Tourists using them have been told to return home.

“The police are relying on unnecessary travel to stop the second homeowners. They are going to ramp it up at the weekend,” Mr Nolan said. “Locals are very anxious about people moving in next door to them.”

The council asked for reports of rule breakers last Friday and by yesterday had received 650 reports, with most about Airbnb rentals.

“Airbnb won’t close their listings,” Mr Nolan said. “They are a very difficult company to get hold of.”

Malcolm Bell, chief executive of Visit Cornwall, said that it was “very disappointing that some were found to be flouting the orders of the government. I would ask the public to keep vigilant and report any further properties that they suspect may be defying the law.”

Gordon Ramsay and his family have also been the subject of local anger after they arrived at their house in Trebetherick on March 20, before the lockdown was imposed.

The Ramsay family are regular visitors and their eldest son lives there permanently, according to a family friend.

People in Devon and on Exmoor have also reported an influx since the lockdown was issued.

Ian Liddell-Grainger, the MP for Bridgwater & West Somerset, said he had been told of second homeowners asking their cleaners on Exmoor to prepare houses for their arrival.

“Our cottage hospitals won’t be able to cope if there is an outbreak here and the nearest large hospital is in Taunton. We don’t have the resources for these people coming here,” he said.

One Exmoor villager said that two doctors from London had moved into their second home to self-isolate near Dulverton but then drove back to the capital because they forgot their breadmaker, before returning again.

A Times reader who moved from London to her Gloucestershire second home a month ago, before the imposition of social distancing, said she was questioned by two police officers on her doorstep on Monday after local residents reported that she had “recently arrived”.

She was asked to provide evidence of living there before the lockdown and it was only thanks to her daughter having a receipt from a taxi taken from London that the officers were satisfied and left.

“We came down with supplies because no one was taking the situation seriously and we didn’t leave the house for more than two weeks,” she said.

Airbnb said it was working on measures to “help everyone follow government guidance and keep people safe” and added it had blocked spare rooms and shared spaces being advertised in the UK for the emergency period and had taken away the “instant book” feature so that guests have to request a booking from a host.

District council bosses have made an extra £25,000 available to boost projects supporting community coronavirus efforts in East Devon.

East Devon Reporter eastdevonnews.co.uk

The authority is distributing the cash through the Covid-19 Prompt Action Fund small grants scheme.

Run by Devon County Council (DCC), the initiative can quickly award up to £499 to community-led efforts.

These can include:

• Safe deliveries of essential goods and services to those who are vulnerable, such as foods and medicines;
• Support for accessing online information and services;
• Virtual support groups to help people to stay connected and informed and to maintain and support mental health and wellbeing;
• Transport-related initiatives that support safe community responses to the outbreak.

Applications are accepted from constituted and not-for-private-profit Voluntary, Community and Social Enterprise (VCSE) sector groups and organisations, town and parish councils, charities or businesses, or a combination of such groups working together.

Organisations can apply multiple times for different projects.

Non-constituted groups without their own, separate bank account, small local businesses and individuals can also apply. However, they will need to do so with the support of an accountable constituted organisation acting on their behalf either as guarantor or as the holder of the funding.

Because the two councils are working together, groups only have to deal with one lot of paperwork, making it much easier and quicker for them to apply.

It also saves the authorities both running the same grants process, meaning that they have more resources to work on other things to help people and communities.

Cllr Ian Thomas, chairman of East Devon District Council’s community grants panel said: “Our voluntary and community organisations, together with town and parish councils, form the bedrock of East Devon’s drive to ensure that all our vulnerable residents are properly shielded and supported in these challenging times.

“We should be proud of and grateful for the dedication of each and everyone involved.

“I am pleased that we have been able to re-allocate £25,000 funding to further help them continue their essential work through many more support opportunities, by adding our own contribution to that from Devon County Council.”

Councillor Roger Croad, DCC’s cabinet member for communities, said: “At extremely challenging times like this, it is important that we all work together to support our residents, especially the most vulnerable.

“I’m particularly pleased that East Devon District Council are joining the COVID-19 Prompt Action Fund which has received in excess of 260 applications from organisations across the county already, after opening just over two weeks ago.

“This funding will help volunteer groups in Devon continue their vital work to tackle the impacts of the coronavirus in their communities and offer support to those in need.”

Find out more and apply here.

From Transition Exeter:

The application for a new Gas-fired ‘Peaking’ Plant, refused by East Devon District Council because of its incompatibility with their Climate Emergency Declaration is going to appeal.  Members of the the public can make representations till April 21st.

The Applicant is Liverton Business Park 2011 (Clinton Devon Estates Ltd), who also owns the solar park nearby. This appeal could be a test case for the construction of these small local back-up, gas power stations, which the Government appears to be encouraging. There is a danger that they will be popping up all over and lead to a whole new generation of gas plants with continued carbon emissions, so we need to prevent a network of such schemes.  Also, subsidised and encouraged through tender exercises opened up by the National Grid, they are probably very commercially lucrative (but of course much of that information would be subject to commercial confidentiality).

The justification for the proposal is mainly based on the plant functioning as a backup facility, to fill the gap in energy supplies when renewables are not generating sufficiently, and thus providing energy security and contributing to the transition to renewables. Some think this is stretching the case very thin, when the Centre for Alternative Technology  argues that 100% renewable energy could supply the grid every hour of the day and night.

The deadline for Representations to the Planning Inspector is 21 April. Many in Exmouth and beyond would be grateful for whatever help you can manage, from a short representation to more technical energy and planning arguments. With respect to pressing for an Inquiry, a reasonable quick point would be that you are very concerned about climate change and have welcomed the local declarations of climate and ecological emergency but are very worried that this scheme conflicts with the local commitments (that would include Devon as a whole). You would feel that the complex issues need airing in a open Inquiry. You need to use your own words.

Oddly, the owner of the Liverton Business Park is Clinton Devon Estates, whose home page bears the large slogan  ‘Doing Today what is Right for Tomorrow’ [Owl thinks it’s time this was changed to “Doing Today what is Right for Clinton’s Business” ]

More information is available from gillwestcott@gmail.com or on the Transition Exeter website www.transitionexeter.org.uk (It isn’t yet but could be soon)

At last we hear from Leader of DCC, John Hart – Owl (and Owl makes no apology for pointing out that the speed of Covid-19 transmission exposes those who make the wrong call and even those who make a late call in a matter of days, it doesn’t wait until you have moved on. These are not normal times, Covid-19 is unforgiving).

Leader John Hart said he was planning to meet the bosses and chief executives of all Devon’s district councils to discuss co-ordinated enforcement action against holiday providers who continue to take bookings.

The authority this afternoon (Wednesday) issued an all-party message for visitors to ‘stay away from the South West’ ahead of the Easter weekend.

East Devon Reporter  eastdevonnews.co.uk

County council bosses want tougher penalties for people flouting coronavirus lockdown rules – after telling holidaymakers and second home owners: “Devon is closed.” 

The authority this afternoon (Wednesday) issued an all-party message for visitors to ‘stay away from the South West’ ahead of the Easter weekend.

Leader John Hart said he was planning to meet the bosses and chief executives of all Devon’s district councils to discuss co-ordinated enforcement action against holiday providers who continue to take bookings.

“As we head to Easter, we want to send a very clear message to holidaymakers and second home owners,” said Mr Hart.

“Devon and the South West are closed. We will welcome you with open arms when this is all over, but right now please stay away.

“We currently have low coronavirus infection rates in the South West, but, if you come here, you stand a chance of bringing it with you and we do not want it under any circumstances.

“We want the message to go out loud and clear and we want our MPs to stop those organisations which are still advertising holidays here.”

Labour leader Rob Hannaford added: “It’s highly damaging and irresponsible for people to be coming to the South West to holiday accommodation or second homes and we want more police spot checks on our borders.

“We have a lot of elderly people here who are most susceptible. We are at the bottom of the regional tables for coronavirus infection and we want it to stay that way.”

Liberal Democrat leader Alan Connett said: “We want people to come here when this is all over but for now the message is clear: stay home and stay safe.”

Independent group leader Frank Biederman added: “We need the Government to introduce huge fines for people who flout the regulations and we really need to emphasise that we are closed. The NHS can’t care for visitors as well as our own residents.

“The vast majority of our tourism businesses are closed and are taking a big financial hit for the benefit of the community but we need to crack down on those who refuse to do so.”

Three people have been arrested following a crash involving a convoy of caravans on the M5 into Devon and Cornwall this afternoon.

Howard Lloyd  www.devonlive.com

The incident, near Tiverton, sparked two miles of queuing traffic at around 1.30pm – mainly HGVs delivering goods in the South West.

Two lanes were blocked and a dog was loose.

An eyewitness described the moment a caravan lost control and crashed into a lorry before a dog inside escaped into oncoming traffic.

Paul Martin, a builder from Taunton, was just outside Tiverton in his van following what he described as a ‘convoy of caravans’ which he believed to be travellers heading towards Exeter.

He claims one of the caravans collided with a lorry before hitting the central reservation – an accident which saw two of the lanes closed off.

“They were very lucky to escape with their lives,” Paul said. “It could have been so much worse.

“I was following one of the caravans – I think they were travellers heading towards Exeter – and one of them was behind a Toolstation lorry.

“It pulled out to overtake but hit the side of the lorry.

“When that happened, it split the caravan open and a dog bounded out. I managed to catch the dog and put him back in the car.

“The dog then managed to escape again and ran onto the other carriageway into oncoming traffic but I managed to catch it again.

“It could have been a lot worse. If they had gone over the central reservation when they crashed or someone had swerved to avoid the dog on the other carriageway, it could have been really nasty.”

Devon and Cornwall Police have since confirmed that three people have been arrested and are in custody.

“We attended a RTC on the M5 Southbound at 13:37. 3 people have been arrested for various offences and are being held in Exeter custody.

“Two stolen vehicles also seized,” the force said.

Paul spent about 25 minutes at the scene blocking off two of the lanes with his van to ensure no traffic hit the damaged vehicles.

He said there was not much traffic on the motorway due to the ongoing travel restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

The incident sparked a furious reaction, with people angry that caravans were being allowed to travel on the motorway without being stopped.

A massive cliff fall has blocked the beach between Branscombe and Weston Mouth, east of Sidmouth. 

Before you rush off to look at it, Owl should remind everyone how Devon and Cornwall Police expect people to behave during lockdown regarding travel and exercise.

The latest statement from the force said: “In light of recent guidance issued by the National Police Chiefs Council (NPCC) and College of Policing, Devon & Cornwall Police is not changing advice on travelling.

Cornwall Live reported yesterday how the NPCC issued new guidance saying that people can drive a reasonable distance for exercise during the coronavirus lockdown period.

However, Devon and Cornwall Police has released a statement stating that it will not be changing advice on travelling despite what the NPCC and College of Policing said.

It also stated that travelling to a beauty spot [for example] to surf is “not within the spirit of what we are trying to achieve”.

“Government advice remains the same, and it is expressly to prevent the spread of coronavirus, to save lives, and to protect the NHS. It includes the following:

• Only go outside for essential food, health reasons or work (but only if you cannot work from home)
• If you go out, stay 2 metres (6ft) away from other people at all times
• Do not meet others, even friends or family. You can spread the virus even if you don’t have symptoms.

“There has been much discussion around what the legislation does and doesn’t specifically prohibit. The legal aspects of the legislation are based upon whether a person’s actions are reasonable or not. Officers will continue to make individual judgements based on the specific circumstances presented to them.

Chris Carson  www.midweekherald.co.uk

Beer Coastguard rescue unit is warning people that there are ‘huge rocks’ on the slope that could fall ‘at any time’.

Their advice to coastal walkers is not to go near the landslide.

A spokesman for the team said: “Please keep away from this area – both the clifftop and the beach.”

A spokesman for East Devon District Council said the area was not under its control but was owned by the National Trust.

No one from the National Trust was currently available to comment

The MP for East Devon, Simon Jupp, is to look into shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE) at local doctors’ surgeries during the coronavirus crisis.

Philippa Davies www.sidmouthherald.co.uk

Concerns were raised at Sidmouth Chamber of Commerce’s monthly breakfast meeting on Wednesday, April 8, which was held online with Mr Jupp as a guest.

A member of the chamber said she had spoken to a nurse at a local medical centre, who thought their PPE would run out next week.

Mr Jupp said: “I will raise it specifically with the county council and East Devon District Council, and raise it with the NHS locally as well, to see what can be done.

“This has been raised with me about other doctors’ surgeries, and unless people tell me I don’t know, so I will raise that specific case as I have with other doctors’ surgeries locally.”

He was also asked whether a temporary Nightingale hospital is being set up at Westpoint, near Exeter, to treat Covid-19 patients.

He said: “It’s something being looked at as cases progress.

“I know at the moment our hospitals across the county, including the RD&E, are coping relatively well with the Covid-19 patients.

“I can report that the levels of PPE available in our hospitals for the frontline NHS staff in our part of the county is pretty good, with another supply due today according to the sources I’ve had, and I do speak to the NHS on a regular basis on that.

“I know there are plans in progress for (a Nightingale hospital) if we get to that stage where it’s obvious that our hospitals, and that includes our community hospitals too, can’t cope with the level of cases.

“This is something we are keeping a watching brief on, and this is something that is being led by the CCG and Devon County Council and the local resilience forum.”

He said everything possible is being done to make sure frontline NHS staff have the equipment they need, to the extent of getting the army involved.

“I was told, as an MP, to warn constituents that if you see a tank going down the road don’t be too concerned, it could be delivering PPE.

“Genuinely, every single Government department is doing its utmost to get supplies to the right places at the right time.”

“At the Centre for Applied Microbiology and Research, housed within the high security Defence Science and Technology Laboratory at Porton Down near Salisbury, scientists are pouring over 800 blood samples taken from a representative sample of the English population.”

“They are conducting tests today which, more than any others you may have read about, will decide the shape and timing of Britain’s coronavirus exit strategy. Perhaps, just perhaps, they will provide the key to the door that is lockdown.”

By Paul Nuki, Global Health Security Editor and Sarah Newey, Global Health Security Reoirter www.telegraph.co.uk

If the tests work, and virologists are confident they will, they will provide Britain with the answers to the most important unknowns about Covid-19: How many of us have already had the virus? How common are asymptomatic carriers? And how much immunity, if any, do we acquire after surviving an infection?

The answers to these questions are what virtually every government the world over is rushing to unearth. They are the gold dust of the pandemic. They will inform not just exit through a much more precise modelling of the pandemic’s trajectory, but the best approach to treatments and vaccines.

Little wonder then that this – the “fourth pillar” of the government’s testing strategy – is being conducted behind the high security fences of Porton Down.

“This sort of study is absolutely vital because we are so uncertain about the level of infection in the population”, said Mark Woolhouse Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh. “As things stand we could be out by a factor or 10 or even 100. If work like this gives us even a rough pointer initially it would be hugely valuable”.

While some elements of the British response have been slow, the work at Porton Down is understood to have been underway since January. Moreover, it plays to our skill set as a nation, based as it is on high-end science rather than the more mundane – but crucially important business – of high volume throughput or production.

Experts say the first two months were spent validating high tech “assays” for reliably identifying coronavirus antibodies and designing a robust longitudinal blood sampling study. The first 800 blood samples were delivered to the laboritary in late February.

“We are expanding this programme during April so that we have the potential to test around 5,000 samples per week”, said the Department of Health and Social Care. “We will also roll out a national mass population sample over the coming months… the aim is to enrol 16,000 to 20,000 people who will undergo repeat testing”.

Attention has been focused on swab tests for the virus and cheap home antibody tests to tell people if they have already been infected. While the swab tests are reasonably precise, the home antibody testing kits are currently woefully inaccurate.

In contrast, the antibody tests or “assays” being run at Porton Down are said to be excellent. “The tools are there. The expertise is there. You can be quite confident PHE at Porton Down has access to sensitive assays that can accurately determine antibody levels in patients’ blood,” said Zania Stamataki, a senior lecturer in viral immunology at the University of Birmingham. 

Dr Stamataki added that it was these Porton Down assays that the commercial antibody tests which the government has taken options on are being validated against.

The initial aim of the work at Porton Down is to establish how widely the virus has spread. Current models assume the spread to date is fairly modest, at around three to four per cent of the population. If the modelers had a more precise grip on this crucial variable they would be able to predict the course of the epidemic with much greater certainty.

“Data in the coming weeks will enable estimation… with greater precision,” the team at Imperial College London, whose work underpins the UK’s lockdown strategy, admit in a report dated March 30. 

Prof David Heymann, infectious diseases expert at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, added: “Community surveys will provide us with idea of the level of people infected and that is very important to inform the modelling. Modelers use best possible data at the time they do the modelling, but this changes rapidly.” 

Just as a political pollster can take a small but representative sample of the population to establish voting intentions with some accuracy, the scientists at Porton Down hope to pin down a figure for the spread of the virus from the initial 800 blood samples they are currently studying. This will be improved on as they test more blood samples over time.

The study will also provide data on the vexed question of how many people with Covid-19 experience no symptoms or symptoms so mild they carry on as normal and (perhaps) unwittingly spread the disease to others. This again is vital information for those devising Britain’s exit strategy. Current estimates for non-symptomatic carriers vary hugely.

“Blood antibody tests themselves will not tell you about symptoms but if you have gathered detailed clinical information from those you are taking blood from it should do”, said Prof Woolhouse.

Karol Sikora, professor of medicine at the University of Buckingham and former director of the WHO, added: “In studies on cruise ships and small countries, where they’ve tested just about everyone, some 50 per cent of people infected have no symptoms whatsoever, not even a sore throat or cough. 

“That number could mean 20 to 30 per cent of the population have been infected in the UK, which would have huge implications for our strategy – especially around herd immunity and NHS capacity. That information really is vital.”

Last, and perhaps most important, the work at Porton Down will – over the course of six months to a year – show whether or not the antibodies produced as a result of contracting Covid-19 give protection against the virus, and how long that protection lasts. Currently, science is completely in the dark about this, the single most important question of all.

“The hypothesis is that the existence of antibodies means you will have some protection but this is not necessarily the case,” said Dr Stamataki. “We do know that antibodies from some existing coronavirus can last for a year or more. But this is a novel virus and it is possible both that its antibodies are not protective or that they don’t last.”

The Porton Down research will establish this by means of a longitudinal study whereby the participants would have their blood checked for antibodies regularly over time to see how long they last. Animal studies will be run consecutively to test their protective potency.  

“One can’t overstate the importance of establishing the strength of any immunity”, said Dr Stamataki. “Even if it lasts for just a year it would give many of us the chance to return to normality.”

The work at Porton Down puts into perspective the trouble governments around the world are having with home antibody tests. Even if these tests prove accurate they are next to useless unless it is known that the antibodies they test for provide protection.

The work at Porton Down should, within months, start to answer that vital question.   

“Not Boris Johnson, surely. Not that most bouncy and irrepressible of men, who always seemed the definition of a lucky general. While we know this virus does not discriminate, there is still something faintly surreal about the idea of the prime minister lying in intensive care, his own body now a battlefield for the virus that has come to define his fledgling premiership.”

Gaby Hinsliff  www.theguardian.com

Once in a generation – and only then if it’s unlucky – a nation finds itself living through events so dramatic they almost defy belief.

Not Boris Johnson, surely. Not that most bouncy and irrepressible of men, who always seemed the definition of a lucky general. While we know this virus does not discriminate, there is still something faintly surreal about the idea of the prime minister lying in intensive care, his own body now a battlefield for the virus that has come to define his fledgling premiership.

Don’t underestimate how many ordinary people will be shaken by the sight of a 55-year-old laid low like this, despite the best care the NHS has to offer. So many lives have already been touched by this virus in ways we could never have imagined three months ago and now, by a terrible irony, the man responsible for leading us through it is one of them.

Whose heart does not go out out to a heavily pregnant Carrie Symonds, weeks away from giving birth to their baby? The wider Johnson family, too, deserve to feel supported in their distress, like any other family waiting for news from hospital. Yet beyond this private and very understandable distress lies a grave new political reality. Just as the epidemic nears its dangerous peak, a hole is emerging at the heart of government.

It no longer feels like a coincidence that the Queen was finally deployed on Sunday night, just as Johnson was heading for hospital. Her address to the nation was a gentle reminder that in Britain power does not rest solely in one place, yet in practice there is only so much she can do to steady a ship now heading for constitutionally uncharted waters.

Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, has been asked to deputise for Johnson, yet that official language conceals a very grey area. Unlike America, Britain has no designated survivor to step up in an emergency. Constitutionally speaking, there is no such thing as an acting prime minister either; there are only prime ministers, who serve until they lose an election, resign or die, and in their absence power devolves to the cabinet as a whole.

Raab’s new status is essentially a means of preventing the chain of command from becoming confused or mired in internecine cabinet rivalries, although it remains to be seen whether he really has the authority to knock his colleagues’ heads together. (Those who wonder why it’s him in charge rather than the Cabinet Office minister, Michael Gove, now self-isolating after a family member showed coronavirus symptoms, perhaps miss the point that Johnson was nominating not a successor but a caretaker.)

For now, the opposition seems willing to give all this the benefit of the doubt. Illness transforms the prime minister in the public mind, to the extent that it would seem grotesque for Labour to use this moment for political advantage. Nor can Keir Starmer do anything that might be interpreted as pressuring a sick man back to work; we’ll never know whether Johnson would have got this ill if he’d rested the minute he was diagnosed, but a culture in which politicians don’t feel able to take sick leave even on their hospital beds is in no sense a healthy one.

Yet it remains the opposition’s job to hold government accountable for management of this epidemic, and if Johnson’s absence turns out to be prolonged, questions will eventually have to be asked about the democratic basis on which his chosen substitutes continue to govern.

The cruelty of this situation is that it pits the human imperative to be kind, to make allowances for awful circumstances, against the remorseless political imperatives of a crisis in which many more lives are at stake.

For there are life-changing judgment calls to be made over the coming weeks, as Downing Street grapples not only with clinical questions about when and how to lift the lockdown, but with an economic crisis unfolding alongside it at pace. It no longer seems credible that we will simply pick up where we left off pre-virus, and huge decisions loom about how to restart a hollowed-out economy and how the bills now being racked up will be repaid. With all due respect to Raab, there is only so far a stand-in can go in taking decisions which will determine what kind of society emerges from this.

What exacerbates the problem is that the country didn’t just vote for a Conservative government last December, or even for a slate of policies. It voted, perhaps more than usual, given the degree of switching across party lines, for one man and one idea. Johnson embodies not so much an ideology as a mood, a feeling, a sense of what Britain could be that was inextricably bound up with (but not wholly limited to) Brexit.

Whether his brand of breezy confidence suits the management of an epidemic is not, perhaps, a question to be asked over his hospital bed. But it’s hard to see anyone else in government occupying quite the place he did in the public imagination, should his absence extend for more than a few weeks.

Clearly it’s to be hoped the prime minister makes a swift and full recovery. But nobody bounces straight back from intensive care into 18-hour days at the office, which suggests at best he will need time to convalesce. Downing Street may need to start preparing the public soon for the possibility of a long, slow road back to normality.

Power instinctively fears a vacuum, because of the risk that it will fill with panic. The suspicion at Westminster for days now has been that No 10 was playing down the seriousness of the prime minister’s illness in order to keep the nation calm, a suspicion only reinforced by a curiously strained Monday night press conference in which Raab insisted the boss was still overseeing things from his hospital bed while admitting that he hadn’t actually spoken to him since Saturday.

Within hours, it emerged that the prime minister was in fact heading to intensive care. Sudden deterioration is an emerging hallmark of coronavirus cases, so it is not impossible that his office was as taken aback as anyone else by this decline. But from here on in, candour is essential.

These are extraordinary times, which means voters may well accept extraordinary solutions for a while to allow the prime minister a chance to heal. But we cannot live for ever in a state of democratic ambiguity, and if the road to recovery proves longer or harder than expected, there may come a time when Johnson faces a very personal choice between the job he has craved all his life and the national interest. Downing Street cannot be alone in hoping it doesn’t come to that.

“These are frightening times to be in a care home. It’s incredibly hard not only for the elderly residents, deemed to be at high risk and fearful for their lives, but for their carers too, struggling away while the focus has been on the hospitals.”

Followers of East Devon Watch will be too well aware of how a frightening situation has been turned into unimaginable horror for the residents, and their relatives, of Budleigh Shandford Care Home being closed by Abbeyfield. Under lockdown there can be no contact with loved ones.

Alice Thomson www.thetimes.co.uk

These are frightening times to be in a care home. It’s incredibly hard not only for the elderly residents, deemed to be at high risk and fearful for their lives, but for their carers too, struggling away while the focus has been on the hospitals. Of all the key workers battling through this pandemic, residential carers are in a particularly vulnerable position. Low-paid, often young and inexperienced, or immigrants far from loved ones, they are expected to fight on the forgotten front line with little help or medical equipment and to act as angels when they could become harbingers of death.

There are more than 400,000 elderly in residential homes across the country. Everyone applauds the doctors, nurses, emergency staff, teachers and shelf-stackers but the care workers are too easily shunted to the side and neglected.

Many work long hours on zero-hours contracts as “unskilled” workers, helping the elderly to eat, go to the toilet, bath, brush their hair, cut their toenails, or in the case of those with dementia or Alzheimer’s, encouraging them to connect in small ways with life. The workload is exhausting, turnover is rapid and vacancies were already running at 20 per cent. The pay differential between care workers with less than one year’s experience and those with more than 20 is 15p an hour so they aren’t rewarded for acquired skills. In fact, they are often castigated for being uncaring when the majority are empathetic and selfless.

Both my parents are in care homes where the carers have made huge efforts to make the residents feel as comfortable as possible, reassuring them as they nervously self-isolate in their rooms, feeding them as nutritiously as they can from limited supplies and singing with them. For my father, who has dementia, it’s a struggle not to be able to roam the corridors or countryside.

Carers always worry about the welfare of their beloved residents: now, last in the line for testing, they know they could bring devastation to their workplace if they pick up the virus. Or they could catch it while holding the hand of a dying patient, who may be desolate without their family, or in the case of those with dementia, horribly disorientated.

Sixteen residents at a care home in Glasgow died in just over a week after a suspected outbreak of coronavirus. The patients at the Burlington Court care home were not tested for Covid-19 because they were not admitted to hospital; two staff members are also undergoing treatment. It must be horrific to attempt to provide some dignity to the final moments of so many at once, acting as surrogate family to the dying, while also worrying whether you might bring the virus back to your partner or children.

Sam Monaghan, chief executive of MHA, the UK’s largest charity provider of care for older people, said: “NHS staff are used to dealing with a high volume of end-of-life care; social care staff who develop close personal relationships with residents over months and years are not.”

Care staff have often been the last to receive personal protective equipment (PPE) despite dealing with serious cases. Meanwhile managers are worried that residents and families are being nudged to sign Do Not Resuscitate order forms. Many have been told informally not to call an ambulance for those over 75 or expect them to be admitted to hospital, although NHS England says there is no national guidance.

Rachel Beckett, chairwoman of Wellburn, which has 14 homes across the northeast, says: “With no guidance, financial or moral support, we know for now we’re in this on our own. Our carers, who are overworked, stressed and being pushed to the limit, both physically and mentally, aren’t part of the wider story.” Agency workers have been called in but they could become super-spreaders as they move between homes. So managers are appealing for volunteers to sign up to a national care force while staff self-isolate or recuperate from symptoms.

In Europe, the devastation wrought by the virus has caused a care scandal. France’s retirement homes, shuttered from the world, have reported multiple cases of double-digit death tolls. In Spain, military units had to be dispatched to disinfect care homes after staff fled. Twenty-three people were found dead in a Madrid residence.

There are ways to ameliorate care homes’ plight. In Belgium, families of elderly coronavirus patients have started legal action to ensure their relatives get places for intensive care treatment but the majority of frail octogenarians in Britain would probably be horrified to take the place of a young person on a ventilator. As the 86-year-old Joan Bakewell says in an interview in The Times today: “If I was the oldest by far and a younger person needed a ventilator, I wouldn’t be fighting for my life over theirs.”

However, dying residents could perhaps say goodbye to families if there was more protective equipment and staff must be provided with PPE, and be fast-tracked for testing. Volunteers should sign up to help at nationalcareforce.co.uk and grandchildren can write letters and paint pictures. Arts charities are already performing outside windows.

Above all, when this is over, the government must recognise that it is futile to separate social care from the NHS — they operate in conjunction. Care staff need to be better paid and residential homes should never again be seen as an afterthought. We seem to think of ourselves as a nation that doesn’t care about the old but the coronavirus has shown us how much we do.

Thousands of vulnerable Britons at high risk from coronavirus have not yet been told they should be staying indoors for 12 weeks, it has emerged.

With the peak of the virus thought to be several days away, officials have admitted that there have been “mixed messages” about which people should be “shielding”.

Shaun Lintern Health Correspondent www.independent.co.uk 

Vulnerable people may have been inadvertently putting themselves at higher risk because they are unaware that they should be staying home.

Last month the government announced that it would contact 1.5 million people to tell them that they should be shielding. GPs were then asked to find out more information on other patients they were aware of who needed to follow similar advice.

But in some cases, GPs have been unable to add people to the existing list of those who are entitled to receive food deliveries and urgent supplies during their 12-week isolation.

A letter from deputy chief medical officer Dr Jenny Harries – who has been alongside ministers in daily press conferences from Downing Street – and Dr Nikki Kanani, NHS England’s primary care director, admitted there had been “mixed messages”, telling doctors to “disregard” previous advice as fresh attempts were to be made to identify those at risk.

Alison Thomas, whose 95-year-old mother Else Catchpole is blind, deaf, takes medication for heart failure and suffers bouts of breathlessness, criticised the delays and said people were being left at risk.

Ms Catchpole, who lives in Cambridge, relies on her daughter for care eight hours a day and is unable to leave the house or even prepare her own food and drink.

“I went on the government website and it said she does not fit the criteria. I went to her GP and asked him to add her. He called me and said he totally agreed with me and said he had a long list of people but they had been told they weren’t allowed to add anyone and to wait,” said Ms Thomas.

She worries she could bring the virus into her mother’s house and fears what could happen if she becomes sick herself. She said: “I am angry and frustrated. It seems completely chaotic. I think there could be millions who have been missed.”

A GP in the northwest told The Independent: “We are being told to wait until the centralised lists have been done then we will be told when we can do our searches and add people. Apparently there has been some problems with the coding used for searches and also the wording in the letter sent out.

“We’re getting lots of patients asking why they haven’t received their shielding letter yet. And some asking why they have received one.”

The government introduced the shielding policy on 21 March for 1.5m people thought to be “extremely clinically vulnerable” to the virus.

Asked about the issue at the daily No 10 press conference, chief medical officer Chris Whitty said there were around 16 million people who were aged over 70 and have pre-existing health conditions who he said should be following government advice on isolation.

He added: “There is this particularly vulnerable group, around 1.5 million … who we are very keen to have the absolute minimum contact possible for quite a long period of time.”

He said most had been contacted or would be as a second wave of letters was sent out this week.

“There will be people who go in to the shielding programme who were not initially identified,” he said.

In their letter to GPs sent on Friday last week, Dr Harries and Dr Kanani said: “We know that there have been mixed messages about this patient group.”

They said most patients at highest risk had been identified and written to, but added: “This week we expect more people to be identified as we are validating the centrally held list against general practice data. People identified through this process will be sent a letter in the post and these will also be flagged in your GP system.”

GPs were asked to identify patients they believed should be included, but the letter said: “We are aware that there have been other sources of guidance asking you to identify and contact large numbers of extra patients. We ask you to disregard this.”

The letter said details of patients who had self-identified as vulnerable would be sent to GPs this week, adding: “We ask that you review this list and consider if any of them should be included in the highest clinical risk group. Please send a letter to any you consider to be at highest clinical risk and add a flag to their record.”

Hospital specialists are also working to identify patients they consider to be at risk.

Professor Martin Marshall, chair of the Royal College of GPs, said: “A priority for GPs is to ensure our most vulnerable patients are kept as safe as possible during the pandemic and official advice is that ‘shielding’ is the best way to do this.

“If a patient thinks they meet the criteria to be in the highest risk group and should be shielding but hasn’t received notification, or adversely, if someone has been told they should ‘shield’ but don’t think they meet the criteria, they should contact their GP or hospital specialist.”

“Most will get a mild form of the disease” was the mantra trotted out during the early daily briefings from Downing Street as we were pursuing the “acquiring herd immunity” strategy. Whilst this is true, Covid-19 is distinguished by causing severe symptoms in a minority. 

We all wish the Prime Minister a full and speedy recovery. 

This article presents the brutal facts as they relate to what we know to date in this epidemic of what it can do to a minority. We must all hope that medical science can find effective therapies to alleviate symptoms whilst the world waits for a vaccine.

Tom Whipple  www.thetimes.co.uk 

It was not, we can be fairly certain, the hospital handshakes that did it.

At the beginning of March — a month ago and a world away — Boris Johnson was criticised after saying that he had been going around hospitals greeting patients and, in defiance of the coronavirus, shaking them by the hand.

Today Mr Johnson is back in hospital for very different reasons, and there is neither defiance nor glad-handing.

As foolish as the handshakes may have been, it seems far more likely that his infection can be traced to a fortnight later and what could be called the “Cobra cluster”. On the day when Britain went into lockdown Neil Ferguson, the government’s leading adviser on disease modelling, was in Downing Street.

It turned out that he was also providing a less than theoretical lesson in disease spread — the next day he would announce that he had coronavirus. We will never know for certain if he was “patient zero” for the cabinet. We do know that in the days that followed Matt Hancock, the health secretary, Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, and Dominic Cummings, Mr Johnson’s chief adviser, all went down with symptoms. And so, on March 26, did Mr Johnson.

We understand enough about the virus’s trajectory to know that most people who get over it easily do so in the first week in which their symptoms appear. As Mr Johnson compared notes with Mr Hancock, who was diagnosed on the same day, they would have not, initially, felt that dissimilar. Inside their bodies — most likely confined largely to their noses and throats — the coronavirus was reproducing, multiplying, and recreating the symptoms of a bad cold.

While Mr Hancock’s immune system was already containing and controlling the coronavirus, in Mr Johnson, for whatever reason, the infection was probably spreading to his lungs. And, about ten days after his symptoms began, the infection had worsened to such an extent that he had to go to hospital.

From the intensive care unit there are two routes out: death or discharge. According to very early data, both are equally likely. That bald statistic ignores both Mr Johnson’s circumstances, however — he is five years younger than the average British coronavirus patient in ICU — and the fact that the present statistics are based on only a fraction of cases. Most Britons who have gone into ICU with this virus are still there.

What we do know from experiences abroad is that the next fortnight is crucial. As more of Mr Johnson’s cells die they will be sloughed into his lungs, clogging them with fluid and debris. At the same time, doctors now believe, he will be in danger of a “cytokine storm”, in which the immune system overreacts, rushing in defensive cells and opening up blood vessels — causing damage and leading to yet more fluid on the lungs.

If he can battle that and come out the other side then, on average, we would expect to see Mr Johnson give a wave — albeit a feeble one — from the steps of St Thomas’ about 18 days after symptoms began, the weekend after next.

Patients who do not survive leave, on average, four days after that.