(and introduces the House to a bit of dialect). Owl needs to explain that some conventions apply to maiden speeches. They should: relate in some way to the subject of the debate; be brief (about 5 minutes); be uncontroversial (not politically contentious or critical); contain remarks about your constituency; contain a tribute to your predecessor, regardless of political party. 

Any rawd, yer tiz (anyway, here it is):

Second Reading: Birmingham Commonwealth Games Bill (Lords) [Owl would soon lose patience with the this procedural stuff]  

It’s not about me, it’s about you – my maiden speech

www.simonjupp.org.uk

Mr Deputy Speaker, thank you.

Firstly, I will take this opportunity to thank my predecessor, Sir Hugo Swire for his service to East Devon and this House.

Sir Hugo served the constituency and his country with distinction.

He held several influential roles in Government including Minister of State at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

I count Sir Hugo as a friend, as do many in East Devon, because his efforts helped many people I meet across the constituency every week.

This house is a broad church of opinion, skills and expertise – no matter which rosette was worn on a dark and cold night last December.

Party differences should be cast aside as every member of this house comes together to back Great Britain as we become a truly Global Britain.

And the Commonwealth Games is a superb opportunity to demonstrate the values we hold dear.

Freedom, democracy, tolerance and decency.

71 nations will come together in Birmingham to celebrate their vibrant cultures and community spirit with a fair bit of friendly competition.

As we spread our wings and embark on a new journey as an independent nation – we must always remember the rallying cry in 2016 from communities who felt left behind.

Many still do.

I am incredibly humbled to stand here as the Member of Parliament for East Devon.

My constituency boasts vast swathes of the Jurassic Coast, rolling countryside, Georgian seaside towns and beautiful villages – and you are never too far from an honesty box or farm shop.

I was born in Devon; my family have lived in the county for generations – with some hailing from Cornwall, but we don’t talk about that…

Devon has given me incredible opportunities during my career.

I was part of the launch team for Radio Plymouth – a truly independent radio station for my home city.

It’s still going strong 10 years later – and I was delighted to attend their birthday celebrations last month.

However, my career in journalism and politics took me away from my county, family and friends.

London and the South East continue to lure our home-grown talent, many of whom never return.

This must change.

But it’s only possible if Devon speaks up, with one voice.

Devon has largely backed my party for many years – and that loyalty must be rewarded. 

And I look forward to working with the government on repaying the people’s trust in us.

Throughout the election campaign, people on doorsteps across East Devon told me they wanted to Get Brexit Done.

We’re getting it done – but we must deliver more.

And whilst many people flock to Devon for our stunning coastline and countryside every year, its clear our transport network leaves a lot to be desired.

Never more so than now.

Until last week, Exeter Airport, based in my constituency, provided regular flights across the UK, Channel Islands and Europe.

The collapse of Flybe is devastating for Devon and my thoughts are with those looking for new jobs.

I went to Exeter Airport on Friday to speak to staff and offer my support.

I saw many brave faces that day.

I want them to know I will do everything I can to support the future of Exeter Airport.

Now is the time to invest in the South West.

Never again can our main railway line, connecting Devon to the rest of the country, be washed away.

So, we must – to coin a phrase – Get Dawlish Done.

That’s not all.

The A303 is a main artery route into the South West.

It’s the road which passes Stonehenge – and many of us are treated to that historic view for considerably longer than we anticipated.

It’s time we saw action – not just proposals and plans.

I would take great delight in getting access to the Governments PayPal account.

Alas, I fear the password may contain the words “Powerhouse” and “Northern”.

Nevertheless, I know the Prime Minister and his Cabinet fully understand the opportunities and challenges facing Devon.

“I’ll do it dreckly” is a phrase heard regularly in my home city of Plymouth.

It means we’ll get around to doing something at some point, maybe, in the future.

A janner’s mañ-yarna, if you will.

But we don’t have any time to waste – we must deliver for Devon, now.

Thank you.

Meanwhile, as Old Owl has found Hugo Swire continues dashing around the world on expenses  (see his Twitter feed) and promoting honey, for which he presumably receives payments as patron, as he did when an MP.

Neither pestilence nor plague can be allowed to get in the way of achieving EDDC’s aim of build, build, build. Driven by a plan to create just under 1,000 jobs a year, and Heart of the South West’s plan to double the (2018) economy in 20 years.

The end of the Ben Ingham/Tory regime can’t come soon enough.

Becca Gliddon  eastdevonnews.co.uk 

A housing developer recently announced the start of its next phase of home building for Cranbrook.

Taylor Wimpey Exeter said the fifth phase of development at East Devon’s newest town, Cranbrook, was launched last month and includes two, three and four-bedroom homes.

Melissa Langton, for the housing developer, said “We’re really excited to launch the fifth phase of our Cranbrook development this year.

“Our site team has been working incredibly hard ahead of the launch, and we can’t wait to welcome people to site when we open our doors.”

Cranbrook resident Matt Rowett – in support of the new homes – said his move to the town was driven by community spirit and the being located near Exeter.

He said: “One of the main reasons for coming out to Cranbrook was to upsize as we now have a one-year-old son.

“I can definitely see him growing up here, making lots of friends and attending the local school.”

‘No-one should be going through this alone’ is the message from Ottery St Mary’s network of community volunteers.

Philippa Davies  www.sidmouthherald.co.uk

As the coronavirus crisis has escalated, so has the number of people joining the network, now numbering around 400.

The network, set up by the town council, the NHS, the Coleridge Medical Centre and Ottery Help, is working in groups, each focusing on a section of Ottery comprising around 100 homes.

They will distribute leaflets and email people to find out who are the most vulnerable people in their areas.

The community volunteers are initially concentrating on practical support such as shopping and collecting prescriptions, but are appealing for people with medical training to join them.

They are also aware that some elderly or vulnerable people might be nervous about opening their door to a stranger.

All volunteers will carry photo ID, and the list of volunteers has been registered with the police, so that people can phone to check their credentials.

If you need help contact help@online.ottery

Anyone interested in joining the network is asked to email admin@ottery.biz

“The south west looks most vulnerable in terms of ratios. It has the oldest population (so highest expected mortality) and lowest number of critical care beds per head of population. The modelling suggests it needs six times more than currently exists there (600 per cent).”

“On the upside, the south west currently has a relatively low infection rate. Public Health England (PHE) should be doing everything possible to keep it that way through aggressive testing and containment of new cases [If only! – Owl]. If the virus gets out of control in the south west it is likely to sweep through the region’s retirement towns and nursing homes, overwhelming local hospitals.”

Owl hopes that all those who went along with bed closures locally will reflect upon their actions – we are all in this together – no-one is immune, no-one can “buy their way out”.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/huge-regional-differences-intensive-care-bed-numbers-threaten/

Those living in rural areas, the south west and midlands are most vulnerable, while London is best equipped.

We know the NHS as a whole has too little capacity to cope with the coronavirus outbreak. That’s why all hospitals were on Tuesday ordered to send “medically fit” patients home and cancel all non-urgent operations, moves which will impact tens of thousands.

“Covid-19 presents the NHS with arguably the greatest challenge it has faced since its creation”, said its boss Simon Stevens, in a letter to all trust and hospital chief executives.

Despite such announcements, it’s a mistake to think of the NHS as a single service. It is anything but. Health care in the UK is run independently in each of the four nations. Even in England, the service Mr Stevens’ presides over, the NHS, is not really one entity run and controlled from the centre. In reality it’s a federation of sometimes competing services.

The analysis below showing huge regional variation in the NHS’s ability to respond to the Covid-19 outbreak is partly explained by this and partly by the nature of the virus itself.

The modelling has been done by Edge Health, a leading provider of data analysis to many of the country’s 206 hospital trusts. It was the same company that calculated a 7.5 times shortage in critical care beds last week, prompting the health secretary to charge industry with urgently making more ventilators.

Mr Stevens’ action aims to free up 30,000 of the current 100,000 overnight acute beds across England. But the latest modeling shows that even a doubling of that capacity may not be enough to meet the additional demand generated by Covid-19.

“Even if the entire NHS bed capacity were recreated in just six weeks we would still have patients in need of a bed by the middle of May”, the report says. “This pressure is most significant for patients that need critical care beds with ventilation support.”

This is the national picture for England but it hides “huge regional variation”, as the Health Service Journal (HSJ), bible of health service managers, said today (Thursday) based on the same data modelling study. London has 30 per cent more critical care capacity than the much more elderly south west of the country, for example.

(Updated Peak demand embed)

Arguably this existing bed base is adequate for ‘normal demand’ based on current demographics. But “the unique challenge from Covid-19 is that it appears to result in significantly higher mortality rates for older people who tend to be based in areas where there are fewer beds per head of population”, the report reveals.

Where are these areas – those that are going to come under greatest pressure as the epidemic sweeps the country?

The first and most obvious casualty is likely to be rural England. “The maps show that existing bed capacity, much of which has high occupancy, is located away from rural communities where the age profile is older,” the modelling study shows.

The number of critical care beds in different regions and – crucially – their current availability is also going to be decisive. “In England critical care beds were reported as being 83 per cent occupied in December – this starkly contrasts to Italy which had reported occupancy levels pre-Covid-19 of 33 per cent, although this may in part be due to different reporting methodologies,” says the study.

Regionally, it looks like London is best positioned to weather the epidemic, although it too will come under immense pressure.

The capital currently has the highest number of Covid-19 infections per head of population but it also has the youngest population (so lowest expected mortality) and the highest number of critical care beds per head of population.

Even then it is projected to need more than double the number of beds with ventilators than it currently has (129 per cent more). But this is much better than the rest of the country.

The south west looks most vulnerable in terms of ratios. It has the oldest population (so highest expected mortality) and lowest number of critical care beds per head of population. The modelling suggests it needs six times more than currently exists there (600 per cent).

On the upside, the south west currently has a relatively low infection rate. Public Health England (PHE) should be doing everything possible to keep it that way through aggressive testing and containment of new cases. If the virus gets out of control in the south west it is likely to sweep through the region’s retirement towns and nursing homes, overwhelming local hospitals.

In terms of ratios (percentage increase in beds required), the south east and east of England are on a par, requiring a bit more than a four-fold increase in ventilators. However, in terms of demand by sheer volume, the Midlands is projected to need a massive 2,900 additional ventilators – and the medical staff to go with them.

George Batchelor, a co-founder of Edge Health and the report’s principal author, said that having identified the major regional gaps, the NHS needs to think “creatively” to fill them. In particular it should resist the urge simply to try and increase hospital capacity, he said.

“Moving people in and out is going to be important – large flows going through a small stock of beds can quickly cause havoc. The NHS needs to agree its criteria for how it stratifies and moves patients through the different levels of care rapidly, so it makes the best use of limited resources,” he said.

Severely ill patients are very likely to require piped oxygen at high flow rates but they do not necessarily need to be in an existing hospital environment.

“That could actually make things worse because you can only vacate a critical bed if you have somewhere to move the recovering patient to. If other beds are full you get a blockage. It’s a bit like a bath overflowing as the plug is blocked and the tap stuck on,” said Mr Batchelor.

Instead we should “think radically” about how to handle severely ill patients, and learn from the experience of others. “Italy has tents, China built temporary hospitals,” he noted.
In France the army has started helicoptering patients between regions.

“It may also be worth considering how to use regional differential to our advantage – could some London capacity be used to support other regions?”

Finally there is the sensitive issue of triage to be considered if gaps in capacity cannot be filled. The standard process for this involves two or more senior doctors deciding on who gets help and who does not based on a pre-agreed set of criteria.

“Establish a process for triage of patients competing for limited resources, including admission, early discharge, and life support. These decisions should not be made solely by one person. The criteria used to make these decisions should be created in advance and formally sanctioned by the medical staff and hospital administration,” says an advisory note to US hospitals from the John Hopkins Center for Health Security.

In the UK we follow a similar process, often referred to as the Three Wise Men. The aim of the protocol – which should only come into play once national, as opposed to local – resources run out, is to ensure that those patients most likely to survive get treatment.

But to do this well you need good data on survival prospects. How, for example, do age and different underlying conditions interplay in determining survival prospects?

In northern Italian hospitals, which were overwhelmed by Covid-19, the criteria used appeared, from the outside at least, horribly crude, and based largely on age because no better data was available. We urgently need a more sophisticated system here today.

“No one should be making these difficult decisions by themselves”, said a spokesman for the Intensive Care Society. “We will be engaging with NHS England in the hope that guidance will be sent to clinicians across the country.”

Even with the divided and uneven NHS we have, this is something that can and should be done centrally.

Open office working …. well, no door handles but a long way for a sneeze to travel – and that narrow, tall, council chamber has people sitting cheek to cheek …..!

Old Owl

Editor of the Lancet asks the question.

On 24 January, Chinese doctors and scientists reported the first description of a new disease caused by a novel coronavirus. They described how a strange series of cases of pneumonia had presented in December in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people and the capital of Hubei province. At that time, 800 cases of the new disease had been confirmed. The virus had already been exported to Thailand, Japan and South Korea.

Richard Horton is a doctor and edits the Lancet  www.theguardian.com 

Most of the 41 people described in this first report, published in the Lancet, presented with non-specific symptoms of fever and cough. More than half had difficulties in breathing. But most worryingly of all, a third of these patients had such a severe illness that they had to be admitted to an intensive care unit. Most developed a critical complication of their viral pneumonia – acute respiratory distress syndrome. Half died.

The Chinese scientists pulled no punches. “The number of deaths is rising quickly,” they wrote. The provision of personal protective equipment for health workers was strongly recommended. Testing for the virus should be done immediately a diagnosis was suspected. They concluded that the mortality rate was high. And they urged careful surveillance of this new virus in view of its “pandemic potential”.

That was in January. Why did it take the UK government eight weeks to recognise the seriousness of what we now call Covid-19?

In 2003, Chinese officials were heavily criticised for keeping the dangers of a new viral disease, severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), secret. By 2020, a new generation of Chinese scientists had learned their lesson. Under immense pressure, as the epidemic exploded around them, they took time to write up their findings in a foreign language and seek publication in a medical journal thousands of miles away. Their rapid and rigorous work was an urgent warning to the world. We owe those scientists enormous thanks.

But medical and scientific advisers to the UK government ignored their warnings. For unknown reasons they waited. And watched.

The scientists advising ministers seemed to believe that this new virus could be treated much like influenza. Graham Medley, one of the government’s expert scientific advisers, was disarmingly explicit. In an interview on Newsnight last week, he explained the UK’s approach: to allow a controlled epidemic of large numbers of people, which would generate “herd immunity”. Our scientists recommended “a situation where the majority of the population are immune to the infection. And the only way of developing that, in the absence of a vaccine, is for the majority of the population to become infected.”

Medley suggested that, “ideally”, we might need “a nice big epidemic” among the less vulnerable. “What we are going to have to try and do,” he said, was to “manage this acquisition of herd immunity and minimise the exposure of people who are vulnerable.” Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, suggested that the target was to infect 60% of the UK’s population.

After weeks of inaction, the government announced a sudden U-turn on Monday, declaring that new modelling by scientists at Imperial College had convinced them to change their initial plans. Many journalists, led by the BBC, reported that “the science had changed” and so the government had responded accordingly. But this interpretation of events is wrong. The science has been the same since January. What changed is that government advisers at last understood what had really taken place in China.

Indeed, it didn’t need this week’s predictions by Imperial College scientists to estimate the impact of the government’s complacent approach. Any numerate school student could make the calculation. With a mortality of 1% among 60% of a population of some 66 million people, the UK could expect almost 400,000 deaths. The huge wave of critically ill patients that would result from this strategy would quickly overwhelm the NHS.

The UK’s best scientists have known since that first report from China that Covid-19 was a lethal illness. Yet they did too little, too late.

The virus quickly made its way to Europe. Italy was the first European country to suffer huge human losses. On 12 March, two Italian researchers, Andrea Remuzzi and Giuseppe Remuzzi, set out the lessons of their tragic experience. Italy’s health service simply could not cope. They did not have the capacity of intensive care beds to deal with the scale of infection and its consequences. They predicted that by mid-April their health system would be overwhelmed. The mortality of patients with severe infection was high. A fifth of health workers were becoming infected, and some were dying.

They described the situation in Italy as an unmanageable catastrophe. They wrote: “These considerations might also apply to other European countries that could have similar numbers of patients infected and similar needs regarding intensive care admissions.” And yet the UK continued with its strategy of encouraging the epidemic and the goal of herd immunity.

Something has gone badly wrong in the way the UK has handled Covid-19. I know Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, and Patrick Vallance. I have the utmost respect for both. They have had the services of some of the most talented researchers in the world to draw on. But somehow there was a collective failure among politicians and perhaps even government experts to recognise the signals that Chinese and Italian scientists were sending. We had the opportunity and the time to learn from the experience of other countries. For reasons that are not entirely clear, the UK missed those signals. We missed those opportunities.

In due time, there must be a reckoning. I sat with the director general of the World Health Organization, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in Geneva in February. He was in despair. Tedros had been criticised for not calling a public health emergency of international concern sooner. But when he did and when he asked for the modest sum of $675m to help the WHO combat the growing global pandemic his pleas were ignored.

The UK is now taking the right actions to defeat this new epidemic. But we have lost valuable time. There will be deaths that were preventable. The system failed. I don’t know why. But, when we have suppressed this epidemic, when life returns to some semblance of normality, difficult questions will have to be asked and answered. Because we can’t afford to fail again. We may not have a second chance.

Scientists are struggling to understand why the death rate from the coronavirus is so much lower in Germany than other countries. Germany has seen just 27 deaths from the virus so far despite recording 10,082 infections — more than anywhere except China, Italy, Iran and Spain.

That represents a fatality rate of just 0.2 per cent, compared to 7.9 per cent in Italy — raising hopes Germany might be doing something right that other countries can follow.

By Justin Huggler Berlin 18 March 2020 www.telegraph.co.uk

The disparity has even led to allegations of a German cover-up by the Italian far-Right. But experts have cautioned that Germany may simply be at an earlier stage of the pandemic, and that death rates here may soon catch up.

But they also point to other factors that may be helping keep the German death rate down.

“Germany has had a very aggressive testing process,” Dr Mike Ryan, health emergencies director at the World Health Organisation (WHO) said. “So the number of tests maybe detecting more mild cases.

“From the beginning, we have very systematically called upon our doctors to test people,” Prof Lothar Wieler of Germany’s Robert Koch Institute said.

“We can provide testing to a high degree so that we can easily look into the beginnings of the epidemic.”

“Test, test, test” has become the WHO’s mantra in fighting the coronavirus, and experts say Germany’s vigorous testing programme may be doing more than just keeping the death rate down by documenting more cases.

“Italy has a much older population. And in many ways Italy is the poster child  for living longer lives, but unfortunately in this case having an older population means the fatality rate may  appear higher,” Dr Ryan said.

Official figures show that rates of infection among the most vulnerable age group, those aged 60 and above, are much lower in Germany than elsewhere.

That may just be a case of luck, but it may be that by identifying cases early, Germany has been able to track chains of infection and prevent the virus reaching the most vulnerable.

“There is a very big systemic difference between Germany and other countries,” Christian Drosten, the leading virologist at Berlin’s Charite teaching hospital, told Watson magazine.

“Our regulations for the introduction of new test procedures are very liberal. In other countries, there is a central authority that does all the testing for new diseases.”

By contrast, in Germany any doctor can perform a coronavirus test and public health insurance will pay. Germany is not the only country to record a lower death rate. In South Korea fatalities have also been much lower than the general trend.

“In South Korea it appears it was probably a combination of factors, rather than just one,” says Suerie Moon of the Graduate Insititute in Geneva. “Initial cases were among the young, and focused around one church which made it easier for the authorities to contain. But it appears testing also played a crucial role.”

Other differences in the German health system may also be significant. The country has far more intensive care (ICU) beds than anywhere else in Europe.

Intensive care beds can mean the difference between life and death for those who become seriously ill with the virus, and dire reports from northern Italy have told of doctors being forced to choose which patients get them.

Germany has 28,000 ICU beds. By contrast, the UK has just 4,000. And 25,000 of Germany’s already have the ventilators seriously ill patients need.

At the outbreak of the crisis, Germany had 29.2 intensive care beds per 100,000 people. Italy had 12.5. The UK had just 6.6.

In part, that is because of the different way healthcare is funded in Germany. Public health insurance is compulsory and collected at source alongside income tax — but it is passed directly to insurance funds and never enters government coffers, effectively firewalling health funding.

Germany may be better prepared for the virus than most of its neighbours, but it may yet need all the beds it has. Authorities here have warned people not to be complacent about the death rate.

“This is just the beginning for Germany,” said Prof Wieler of the Robert Koch Institute. “If you imagine an epidemic like a curve, then there are countries that are simply further along it.”

Owl congratulates the members of the Green, Independent East Devon Alliance and Liberal Democrat parties and an Independent for coming together to form a new group in EDDC to reform the council. Finding common cause whilst retaining their individual identities.

This exciting news offers the opportunity of real change. It was what Owl thought had happened last May when the voters removed the Conservatives from overall control. Unfortunately that was a false dawn. Ben Ingham grabbed power under the pretence of being the leading “Independent”, turned his back on  the Greens, LibDems and East Devon Alliance indies and promptly jumped into bed with the Conservatives. 

Having led the electorate up the garden path, Ben Ingham has meekly continued with Conservative policies, with Conservatives in key cabinet posts. There has been no change. Business as usual. We also have the bizarre situation of the Conservatives not only sharing power with Ben, but also forming the official opposition. Something straight out of Gilbert and Sullivan.

With the defection of Cllr. Joe Whibley  in January , following Cllr Paul Millars defection earlier, Ben Ingham can no longer muster more support than the Conservatives and his power base has evaporated. He’s yesterday’s man, having lost power after only eight months.

It is now certain that the “Independent Group”, as Ben calls his followers, will disintegrate. For them it will be decision time. Some will  show their colours and become “true blue”, some may sit on their hands, others will undoubtedly “cross the floor” to sign up for the change agenda of the Democratic Alliance,

Those that do will be seeking to reform the running of the council, to properly examine planning policy and practice, and to accelerate the delivery of appropriate housing fit for charitable, private and public sectors. For them the Climate Emergency will be a top priority in guiding policy. The group they join also wishes to call in the council’s borrowing, investment and acquisition policy at a time when the last administration’s long freeze on council tax rises has left the legacy of a looming deficit in the next financial year. Primarily, they will be focusing on the needs of residents, in particular, tackling the issues of poverty and employment.

As Cllr  Whibley said in January: “When elected I stood on a platform of change – an alternative to the status quo. I have seen little evidence that this desire is shared by the Independent Group and, to be true to myself and those who put their trust in me, have decided that I can no longer associate myself with them.”

To Owl it’s a no brainer – do what the voters voted you to do.

A new Democratic Alliance has been formed in East Devon and they have become the largest political group on the council.

Daniel Clark  www.devonlive.com 

Councillors from the Green Party, the Liberal Democrats, the Independent East Devon Alliance, and an Independent have come together for form a new political group.

So far, 22 of the 23 councillors from those parties have combined to join one political group. The 23 has been away and has not had the opportunity to officially sign the papers confirming they will join the political group. All councillors will retain their respective party or independent identities.

It means the Democratic Alliance is now the largest group on the council and Cllr Paul Arnott, who has been elected as their group leader, said that they will now seek to become the official opposition on the council and may seek to form an administration at the Annual Council meeting.

The council is currently run by 18 Independents, with the largest group on the council being the Conservatives with 19.

Cllr Paul Millar and Cllr Joe Whibley were initially members of the Independent Group, but during the course of 2019/20, had quit and currently sit as part of the EDA and an Independent respectively.

Cllr Arnott, who was the EDA group leader, added: “Members of the Green, Independent East Devon Alliance and Liberal Democrat parties and an Independent at East Devon District Council have combined to form a new group with the title the Democratic Alliance.

“The members will retain their respective party or independent identities but have combined to form the largest group at EDDC of 22 councillors. If other members wish to join in due course, they will be carefully considered.

“We have finalised a five page document of our ambitions and it will be shared with all the Independent Group members. If some of them wish to consider coming on board then the Democratic Alliance will be pleased to consider them.”

He added: “After recent meetings, the Democratic Alliance has found common cause in seeking to reform the running of the council, to properly examine planning policy and practice, and to accelerate the delivery of appropriate housing fit for charitable, private and public sectors.

“The Climate Emergency is a top priority in guiding policy. The group also wishes to call in the council’s borrowing, investment and acquisition policy at a time when the last administration’s long freeze on council tax rises has left the legacy of a looming deficit in the next financial year. Primarily, we will focus on the needs of residents, in particular, tackling the issues of poverty and employment.”

Liberal Democrat Leader, Eileen Wragg has been elected Deputy Leader, and iEDA Leader Paul Arnott elected Group Leader of the Democratic Alliance, both unanimously.

Cllr Arnott added: “The group has also resolved that it is committed to discussing the future of the council with other members who share its vision. In the next few weeks it expects to become the official Opposition at the council, and subject to national events may seek to form an administration at Annual Council on May 12.

“Meanwhile as the people of East Devon come to terms with the far-reaching implications of the Coronavirus the Democratic Alliance councillors will continue to work hard with other members and officers. The health of local people is much more important than politics at this time.”

At present, East Devon District Council has not cancelled any of its upcoming meetings, with a meeting of the Car Parking Task and Finish Forum still set to take place on Thursday evening.

An extraordinary council meeting may be called to take place on Tuesday, March 31, ahead of the currently scheduled cabinet meeting, in which the Democratic Alliance would wish to become the official opposition and where the re-allocation of committee places would take place.

If the Democratic Alliance do become the official opposition, then they would be granted the chairman of the scrutiny committee position.

This is an official statement on behalf of the Democratic Alliance 

“Members of the Green, Independent East Devon Alliance and Liberal Democrat parties and an Independent at East Devon District Council have combined to form a new group with the title the Democratic Alliance. The members will retain their respective party or independent identities but have combined to form the largest group at EDDC of 22 councillors. If other members wish to join in due course, they will be carefully considered.

“After recent meetings, the Democratic Alliance has found common cause in seeking to reform the running of the council, to properly examine planning policy and practice, and to accelerate the delivery of appropriate housing fit for charitable, private and public sectors. The Climate Emergency is a top priority in guiding policy. The group also wishes to call in the council’s borrowing, investment and acquisition policy at a time when the last administration’s long freeze on council tax rises has left the legacy of a looming deficit in the next financial year. Primarily, we will focus on the needs of residents, in particular, tackling the issues of poverty and employment.

“Liberal Democrat Leader, Eileen Wragg has been elected Deputy Leader, and iEDA Leader Paul Arnott elected Group Leader of the Democratic Alliance, both unanimously, in a meeting chaired by Joe Whibley. The group has also resolved that it is committed to discussing the future of the council with other members who share its vision.  In the next few weeks it expects to become the official Opposition at the council, and subject to national events may seek to form an administration at Annual Council on 12th May. 

“Meanwhile as the people of East Devon come to terms with the far-reaching implications of the Coronavirus the Democratic Alliance councillors will continue to work hard with other members and officers. The health of local people is much more important than politics at this time.

The town’s foodbank has closed its collection service with immediate effect in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.

Callum Lawton  www.sidmouthherald.co.uk 

Sid Valley Food Bank, which helps people and families suffering from food poverty, said safety and wellbeing of its volunteers and clients are its ‘primary concern’.

Now, a series of steps have been agreed to manage the situation as the country continues to battle against the illness, which as of yet has no vaccine.

The food bank has withdrawn its hospitality and closing collection service, and will now offer delivery only.

Members will conduct an in-depth stock-take of current food in order to plan ahead and streamline donation requests to essential items only on a weekly basis.

This action has been taken because of the likelihood of a reduction in food donations and shops’ stock levels and restrictions

Andie Milne, coordinator of the Sid Valley Food Bank, said: “If you would like to volunteer to help with either packing or distributing via deliveries please contact me and I will send you a volunteer application form – we are in the process of updating the website to enable on line applications.

“We also are aware that many supermarkets are restricting the purchasing of essential tinned items from the store but as yet not online shopping.

“At the present there is no dispensation for foodbank to purchase the large amount of items that we will undoubtedly need in the coming weeks.”

Ms Milne said extra volunteers to deliver food is ‘paramount’ to the bank.

She and members will develop a spreadsheet of volunteers who can be contacted for delivery or packing and a quick method for checking references by telephone.

She added: “A huge thank you to you all for the offers of support we are already receiving.”

Sidmouth Town Council has launched an online directory for residents who need help accessing food delivery services and other assistance while in isolation.

The council is also supporting a postcard scheme to help self-isolating neighbours.

The latest guidance from Public Health England and the NHS is also displayed on its website.

More information can be found at http://www.sidmouth.gov.uk

All support services at cancer charity FORCE’s weekly outreach centre in Honiton will stop with immediate effect.

Callum Lawton  www.midweekherald.co.uk

The announcement comes as the UK continues to fight against the coronavirus, which is sweeping across the country with unprecedented speed.

The charity’s support and information centre in Exeter has also closed.

The charity will offer telephone and video call support to local people affected by cancer.

The decision to close its Support Centre in the grounds of the Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital was taken after consultation with clinical staff at the RD&E.

It follows the first reported cases of Coronavirus/Covid19 at the hospital.

All support services at FORCE’s other outreach centres in Okehampton and Tiverton will also stop but chemotherapy will continue there too for now.

Cancer patients undergoing active chemotherapy or radiotherapy treatment may be among those at particular risk from Coronavirus.

A spokesman for FORCE said: “It is with great regret that FORCE Cancer Charity has decided to temporarily close its support and information centre in Exeter with immediate effect. We will still be offering support and information on the phone and via video calling but there will be no face to face appointments or groups until further notice.

The decision was taken following the announcement of the first cases of coronavirus being treated at the Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital and after consultation with clinical staff at the RD&E Trust.

“We recognise that this may cause significant upset to our users, but we feel it is the only responsible action at this time.

“The FORCE Support and Information Centre is a non-clinical environment and not a priority service in times of acute pressure.

“The risk of transmission of Coronavirus is too high for the group of people we support.

“Staff will continue to work from our Support and Information Centre unless they need to self-isolate because of symptoms.

“We will be offering counselling and information services on the telephone and please check our website over the coming weeks to see what we can do to help support people.

“Anyone with appointments or those booked on to courses are being contacted to explain the situation.

“All support services in Okehampton, Tiverton and Honiton will also stop with immediate effect but chemotherapy treatment will continue as normal in these locations at the moment.

“We will review arrangements on a [Report ends Owl]

In a huge act of solidarity by the community an emergency 24-hour helpline and hub are being set up across Torbay which will pair up people needing aid with those volunteering to help in the coronavirus crisis.

Colleen Smith  www.devonlive.com 

The general public and community groups are teaming up with the newly-formed Torbay Help Hub Facebook group, set up by local councillor Jack Dart.

Within days of setting up the group it quickly reached 6,000 members. Now it is teaming up with community groups who have launched the 24 hour helpline which will pair up people in need of help with members of the public offering aid.

The phone line, which will be staffed 24/7, covers Torquay and Paignton. The number is 01803 446022.

Brixham Does Care can be contacted directly on 01803 857727 (mon-fri 9am to 4.30pm).

In Torbay nearly half the population is over the age of 50 with one in four over the age of 65, making many local people across the Bay more vulnerable than the average across the UK.

Torbay Help Hub has joined forces with umbrella organisation Torbay Community Development Trust (TCDT), Ageing Well Torbay (AWT), Healthwatch Torbay, Torbay Citizens Advice Bureau, Age UK Torbay  and Brixham Does Care.

Jack, a Liberal Democrat councillor in Ellacombe, said: “The Facebook page is amazing and people are offering help – but to keep out any potential bad guys whose intentions are not proper, and give an extra level of security, it makes sense to team up with the Torbay Community Development Trust.

“They have got the staff and the know-how and the hub. They are already working with volunteers and they know what they are doing.

“We are going to share our information with the Community Development Trust.

“The page has taken off incredibly and it’s become a bit full-on with no time to even sleep.”

A spokesman for the Community Trust said: “With more cases being reported daily, community leaders are concerned about self- isolators who need support with day-to-day tasks such as shopping, prescription collections and dog walking.

“Staff are working with voluntary groups across the Bay and have set up an emergency phone line for people in need of help because of illness or isolation and also for those that are prepared to offer help.

“TCDT and Ageing Well are also on call to provide advice and guidance on the best ways to help and support people that are affected in partnership with the statutory services to help as demand increases.

“Callers to the helpline who are offering support will be asked in what way they can help and will then be asked to provide a reference so that some necessary checks can be carried out.

“It is then hoped to be able to help put helpers in touch with those needing help for the duration.”

Tracey Cabache, community development manager, said: “These are extraordinary times and communities are going to have to look after their own wherever possible.

“We can at least provide a central point where neighbours can coordinate their efforts and between us, we can help the most vulnerable.”

Ageing Well says it is already aware through their community builders that some people are self-isolating for fear of contracting the virus, particularly those that already have an underlying condition that would be exacerbated.

The fear is that some may not have had the chance to tell friends and neighbours and may be in need of top-up supplies.

Ageing Well said: “Not everyone either has the will or the ability to stockpile – they might not be able to afford a big shop and even if they could, would never be able to carry the heavy bags home and may now have very limited supplies.”

Nationally a campaign with the hashtag #viralkindness is gaining ground with postcards that neighbours can fill out offering help,  with postcards listing names and phone numbers circulating widely.

But It could be open to fraudsters posing as good neighbours and people have to remain vigilant and watch for their own safety.

The TCDT/AWT scheme hopes to add a layer of checking to the system, but it is not foolproof, and Tracey stresses there has to be an element of trust.

“Hospital staff and doctors are doing all they can. Emergency services will require support and understanding, and so we all need to do our bit” she said

“It is an unfortunate analogy, but we really must all invoke the wartime spirit. Large numbers of people are self-isolating either because they have been ill, or are trying to avoid becoming ill.

“Not everyone will have been able to stockpile enough food for the duration, and we will all have to rely on each other. Thankfully our communities are strong, and we can provide a focus for the great work that goes on within them.”

For more information go to the Torbay Community Help Hub

Dorset takes another step towards National Park status – Owl?

It is a rich, complex landscape, a mosaic of heaths, woods, mires, reed beds, salt marsh and dunes that are home to a myriad of flora and fauna from rare birds, butterflies and bats to carnivorous plants.

Seven landowners have now joined forces to created what is being billed as the UK’s first “super national nature reserve” (NNR) on Purbeck Heaths in Dorset.

Steven Morris  www.theguardian.com 

The idea is that by combining the disparate chunks of land, a more dynamic landscape easier to manage in a more natural way – and much simpler for wildlife to navigate through – will be created.

A stonechat, a bird the size of a robin with a call like two pebbles being hit together, provided the backing track as experts from the National Trust, RSPB and Natural England pointed out the features of the new super reserve from a vantage point high above the heathland on Tuesday.

“It really is a very special place,” said David Brown, a National Trust ecologist. He pointed out an area of bright gorse that is one of the few homes in this part of the world for the small pearl-bordered fritillary butterfly. “At the last count there were only 15 of them there. And they only stay in that one very small area.”

A major aim of the super reserve project is to help such creatures spread further so they do not rely on just one tiny area – and so face being wiped out if disaster strikes their home patch.

Ways in which this will be done include grazing the heathland with cattle and pigs and letting more human visitors tramp across. The concept is not about preserving the landscape as it is but to create the conditions in which it will change dynamically. It is as the changes are happening that some of the most interesting and rare species can flourish.

Some of the developments that will be made at Purbeck will be obvious such as removing non-native Scots pine. But other improvements will be much more subtle including simply encouraging bare patches that plants liked by the nationally scarce yellow centaury.

Brown is keen on the carnivorous plants that can do well here including the sundews. “You can sometimes see dragon fly wings floating on the surface of the boggy pools.The sundews digest their bodies and spit out the hard bits like the wings.”

Birds that do better here than in most places include the Dartford warbler, which dines on spiders that live in the gorse and the woodlark, another lover of tree-cleared ground.

The new Purbeck Heaths NNR knits together 11 types of priority habitat to enable wildlife to move more easily across the landscape. This will give wildlife, including the sand lizard and the Dartford warbler a better chance of adapting and thriving in light of the current climate crisis.

It combines three existing NNRs at Stoborough Heath, Hartland Moor, and Studland and Godlingston Heath. They will be linked with other nature reserves, conservation areas and a golf course, which manages its rough to encourage wildlife and plant life. The whole area will cover more than 8,000 acres and together they will create the largest lowland heathland NNR in the UK.

Partners also include the Forestry England, the private Rempstone Estate, Dorset Wildlife Trust and the Amphibian and Reptile Conservation Trust.

The chair of Natural England, Tony Juniper said: “By creating bigger, better, and more joined-up wild places like this one, we will achieve big benefits for both people and wildlife.

“In facing the twin and deepening challenges of global heating and wildlife loss, we need to think and act on a larger scale. Today’s move marks a shift in gear and a new era for nature recovery in England.”

Purbeck Heaths is one of the most biodiverse places in the UK – home to thousands of species of wildlife, including 450 that are listed as rare, threatened or protected.

All six native reptiles are to be found here, including endangered smooth snakes and sand lizards. As well as the smaller birds such as the stonechat, raptors including hen harriers, marsh harriers, merlins, hobbies and ospreys hunt the heathland.

At least 12 species of bats on the heaths. It is also one of the last strongholds for many specialist insects and other invertebrates, such as southern damselflies and the Purbeck mason wasp.

Mark Harold, the National Trust’s director of land & nature, said: “All the rare and beautiful wildlife living in and beyond the reserve will benefit hugely from a landscape where habitats are bigger, in better condition and better connected – and where natural processes are restored. Here they will be able to spread and build more resilient populations.”

Environment minister Rebecca Pow said it was a landmark project. “Purbeck Heaths is a trailblazing example of how landscape-scale conservation can help wildlife thrive, improve people’s well-being, and build resilience to climate change,” she said.

Discussions at East Devon District Council were still being held, while meetings in the South Hams and West Devon were as of Monday still set to continue.

Other councils have begun to cancel meetings. 

Daniel Clark  www.devonlive.com

Council across Devon have begun cancelling meetings following latest Government advice asking people to stop non-essential contact with other people and avoid all unnecessary travel.

Torridge District Council on Tuesday morning announced that they have taken the decision to cancel all public committee and other meetings until at least the end of March, while at a Teignbridge District Council meeting, it was announced it would be the last until further notice.

Current legislation means that councils cannot meet virtually as members have to be present in the room in order to vote on any decision, but Local Government Secretary Robert Jenrick has announced the Government will consider bringing forward legislation to legislation to allow council committee meetings to be held virtually for a temporary period

Councils will be able to use their discretion on deadlines for Freedom of Information requests, the deadline for local government financial audits will be extended to September 30, and it will consider bringing forward legislation to remove the requirement for annual council meetings to take place in person.

Members of the public are being advised not to attend council offices unless absolutely necessary and even them, they are being urged to speak to them in advance of setting off.

Cllr Ken James, Leader of Torridge District Council said: “The message remains that people should in the first instance follow all the guidance being given by the NHS and Central Government and supplement this with any local service updates issued by the Council. I know that all of our officers will do their best to ensure that the upheaval likely to be caused by the spread of COVID-19 will be minimised as far as possible and we will be monitoring and adjusting as times goes on. Our aim is to continue to serve our residents and businesses to the best of our abilities as the situation allows.”

Steve Hearse – Strategic Manager Resources, added: “The public will be able to help us to reduce the spread of the virus and free up officer time by interacting with the Council online or by telephone wherever this is possible. During the current crisis we would ask that they only visit offices where this is absolutely necessary and agreed in advance by telephone. If a request is not urgent then we would also appreciate people deferring a request until a time when the current peak levels of crisis has subsided.”

Announcing the suspension of meetings, a spokesman added: “Following recent government and NHS announcements concerning the spread of Coronavirus the government has asked everybody in the UK to stop non-essential contact with other people and avoid all unnecessary travel. This has been referred to as “social distancing”.

“As a result of this advice the Council have taken the decision to cancel all public committee and other meetings until at least the end of March. The Council will continue to review government advice on a weekly basis and update its approach as appropriate. Where possible alternative methods of exchanging information such as video conferencing will be put in place so that the business of making decisions can continue.

“The Council are also asking members of the public to think about how they interact with the Council in the short term. Many services can be accessed online or requests made by telephone. The Council are advising people that its customer reception points will be closed for all but emergency or essential contact. We are therefore asking people not to visit Council Offices unless it is absolutely necessary and would urge people to speak to officers first before setting off with the intention to visit.

“Officers and Members have also held meetings to discuss service provision during the likely ongoing escalation of the crisis. The emphasis has been on being able to continue to provide the most important front line services to the many vulnerable people across the district as well as other important services such as refuse collection, which nearly everyone uses.

“Human resource teams have also been trying to understand going forward the impact that potential school closures might have on staff that have parenting duties or other staff who might be more vulnerable due to their own health or the health of relatives or dependant partners.

“While services are currently operating at near normal capacity as more officers may themselves succumb to the virus, or be responsible for looking after others at home, some Council response times may be extended. The Council will do its best to manage resources in key services by redeploying staff or assessing temporary workforce arrangements but would ask the public for their understanding in what continues to be a fast evolving situation. There may also be a need to prioritise some services over others but we will endeavour to keep all services running as smoothly as possible.”

At Tuesday morning’s Teignbridge meeting, Phil Shears, the council’s managing director, said that following the meeting, the council was cancelling all non-essential meetings until further notice, which would include council, executive and committee meetings. The full council continued as scheduled as they needed to make a decision on funding for a link road in Newton Abbot by the end of the month and not doing so would set the project back by five years.

Mr Shears added: “We will carry on providing services to residents and for those most in need.”

He said that they were waiting updated guidance from Robert Jenrick about the relaxation of rules than mean meetings cannot be held virtually as members have to be present in the room to vote on all decisions.

Cllr Richard Keeling, chairman of the council, added that he was asking all councillors and members of the public not to visit the council offices until absolutely necessary.

However, not all councils have yet chosen to suspend all meetings.

A North Devon Council spokesman said that the Policy Development Committee meeting scheduled for Thursday was still set to take place, but they were establishing if enough members would be attending to ensure the meeting could legally take place.

They added: “We suspect that the majority won’t attend so there wouldn’t be a quorum.  If we ascertain that there is no quorum, the meeting will be cancelled. We are awaiting advice from Government regarding our other meetings, which we hope to receive in the next day.”

A Mid Devon District Council spokesman added: “We have no plans to the scheduling of our Council meetings at this point in time, but we are keeping this under review.”

Discussions at East Devon District Council were still being held, while meetings in the South Hams and West Devon were as of Monday still set to continue.

Cllr Judy Pearce, Leader of South Hams District Council, said: “At the moment we are following Government guidance. However, we are looking at ways of minimising the risks by live streaming as many public meetings as possible, so the public can still watch the meetings remotely. The situation is evolving on a daily basis and we will publish any changes to our meeting schedule on our website and on social media.”

Cllr Neil Jory, Leader of West Devon Borough Council, said: “We are working hard to make sure that business at the council is affected as little as possible. We are asking staff, Councillors and officers showing symptoms to self-isolate and not attend meetings, in line with Government guidance. Thanks to our remote working capabilities, staff and Councillors can attend internal meetings via skype from home if they need to. We are reviewing how we conduct our Council and other Committee meetings to minimise the risks, and will notify the public of any changes to our usual meeting arrangements via our website and social media”

In response to Owl’s post Liz Pole, media officer for Devon Labour, has sent in the following information on support groups etc.

national coordinating website : https://covidmutualaid.org/

There is a Devon-wide Covid Mutual Aid group on Facebook and they have a very active Slack group

https://www.facebook.com/groups/devonmag/

Survey

https://docs.google.com/…/1FAIpQLSf4iUCfpoK…/viewform…

Minutes

https://docs.google.com/…/1oWWd8An3yxks5EWfNxtE…/edit…

SHORT NOTICE: Meeting calls this evening:

[1] Safeguarding Training for Mutual Aid Networks hosted by the National Food Service 18:30 to 20:30 Link: https://zoom.us/j/801023850

Momentum discussion

[2] Coronavirus: How should the left respond? Hosted by The World Transformed from 20:00 Link: https://t.co/dGK3WwK007?amp=1

new group for East Devon https://www.facebook.com/groups/1313793688819070/

Several constituency Labour Parties in Devon are offering phone / email contact details for a team available to help those in self-isolation or vulnerable. In Tiverton and Honiton we are building up a spatial network of members identifying as available to help, and working on emergency coordinating teams via our town councillors.  

Sidmouth business leaders are to raise their concerns about the economic effect of the coronavirus with the East Devon MP, Simon Jupp.

Philippa Davies  www.sidmouthherald.co.uk 

The Sidmouth Chamber of Commerce has also contacted the leaders of the town and district councils, calling for ‘specific measures to address the problems that local businesses face’.

It follows the Government’s advice on ‘social distancing’, which urges people to avoid pubs, clubs, cinemas, theatres and restaurants, along with all unnecessary travel, to curb the spread of the virus.

The Chamber fully supports these precautions, but also wants to be reassured that steps will be taken to help businesses that face major losses as a result of the restrictions.

A spokesman for the Chamber said: “The Chamber is obviously concerned for our business community, and there is no doubt that this will be an extremely challenging period for us all.

“We are particularly exposed to the economic situation, because Sidmouth is reliant upon tourism and our clientele is typically elderly.

“For our hotels and accommodation providers, the impact will be very severe indeed.

“This will also extend to our pubs, clubs, cafes and restaurants, which form such an important component of our local economy.

“The overwhelming need is for everyone to stay safe and accede to government guidance and advice.

“Sidmouth has an elderly and therefore vulnerable population, so we as a community have to get together and do whatever we can to help our neighbours and provide assistance where required.

“Sidmouth has a sense of community and resilience that will stand us in good stead during these very difficult and troubling times.

“The Chamber has been in contact with Simon Jupp, our MP, to discuss the situation, and with the leaders of the town and district councils.

“We are urging specific measures to address the problems that local businesses face.

“This is a time for our local authorities to show a proactive, sympathetic and flexible approach towards the business community.

“We are monitoring the crisis closely, and especially the impact upon our local economy.

“In particular, we need to formulate plans for ensuring a speedy recovery once the virus is defeated.”

In these tumultuous times Owl is considering how to be most useful, there is unlikely to be much local news for a while. Perhaps by becoming a hub for locals to share their community-building or other experiences and information?. For example by giving links to tutorials on Skype and/or Zoom or Facebook Portal; Ideas for things to do in isolation etc. Open to ideas.

Meanwhile, Owl will continue with highly selective Covid related posts. This one might be helpful.

What we scientists have discovered about how each age group spreads Covid-19 

Petra Klepac  www.theguardian.com

[Dr Petra Klepac is assistant professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine]

Early detection and early response. In an ideal world, this will contain an outbreak of infectious disease and prevent it from establishing in a population and becoming an epidemic.

Containment typically involves isolating and testing suspected cases, tracing their contacts, and quarantine in case any of these people are infected. The more thorough the testing and contact tracing early on, the better the chance of containment. These measures work well, especially for diseases like Sars, where symptoms coincide with infectiousness – it is easy to recognise people who are infected.

In the case of Covid-19, detection is much harder because some transmission is possible before people show obvious symptoms, in this case a fever and cough. If there are no symptoms, it is impossible to identify people who are infected unless they are tested and their infection is confirmed in a laboratory, which is why airport screening at arrival is not very effective for Covid-19. This makes the virus much harder to control. Sooner or later, an infected case escapes detection and starts a chain of transmission, and quickly leads to a growing number of cases, which can become impossible to contain. As a result, containment has failed in a number of countries and the World Health Organization has declared a pandemic that is here to stay for months, if not longer.

So how does an epidemic spread through a population – and how do we control it? In outbreak analysis, we measure transmission using the reproduction number (otherwise known as R), which tells us how many other people a typical Covid-19 case will infect on average. If one person is expected to infect more than one other person, the infection will grow and create an outbreak; if a person infects less than one other, the infection will peter out.

The larger the value of R, the easier the virus spreads through a population and the higher the number of infections. For seasonal flu, one infection leads on average to 1.4 new infections. For Covid-19, one infection leads to 2-3 others in the early stages of an outbreak. How many other people we end up infecting depends on several things: how many susceptible people there are in the population, how long we are infected for (the longer we are infected the more chances there are to pass on the infection), the number of people we come into contact with, and the probability of passing on the infection to those contacts.

In order to control the epidemic, we need to reduce R below 1. For diseases such as measles, we can achieve this by vaccinating a large enough proportion of the population so that the disease can no longer spread. Exactly what proportion we need to vaccinate to reach community immunity depends again on R. For R of 2, we need to immunise half of the population to interrupt transmission; for R of 3 we need to immunise two thirds of the population to get R below 1.

However, an effective vaccine for Covid-19 is unlikely to be available for another 12-18 months at best.

Shortening the duration of infection could also reduce transmission, and for some infections, such as influenza, this can be achieved with antiviral therapy. There are currently more than a hundred clinical studies in progress, which could produce therapies that reduce the duration of infection or infectivity. However, both of these control options are not yet available.

Another option to reduce the duration of infection is continued testing; this is a measure that can be effective throughout the epidemic. Finding infected people and advising them to self-isolate for the duration of the infection minimises the risk of them passing on the infection, which therefore slows down the spread. This is again a basic intervention method that we know works well, but in order for it to be most effective, results need to be processed quickly (in the UK it takes 2-4 days to get the results, in Wuhan it is under 4 hours).

If we can’t easily reduce susceptibility or duration, we are left with two things: the probability of transmitting the infection upon contact and the number of different people we come into contact with. Both of these are things we as individuals can change by modifying our behaviour. Washing hands frequently for 20 seconds with hot water and soap, not touching our faces, covering our coughs and sneezes, staying at home if we are sick – all of these reduce the risk of getting infected or passing on the infection to someone else.

Cancelling large gatherings, working from home and school closures are all social distancing measures aimed at reducing the number of contacts between people, each of which is an opportunity for passing on an infection. But this will not be a simple case of just cancelling events and closing schools for a couple of weeks. More severe measures will be necessary to bring the infections to low enough levels to keep the pressure off the health-system long-term. As individuals, we must all reduce the number of different people we come into contact with on a daily basis, and be prepared to do so for a prolonged period of time.

But what sorts of contacts are most important for transmission? Together with Adam Kucharski, also from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, I have recently collaborated with the BBC on a massive citizen science project, led by Professor Julia Gog from Cambridge University. Called BBC Pandemic, the project collected information on how people of different ages interact with one another in different contexts (home, work, school, other) from over 35,000 volunteers. We have recently been fast-tracking the release of contact data to help inform UK Covid-19 modelling efforts and potential intervention strategies.

What we have found in this data is that adults aged 20-50 make most of their contacts in workplaces. If those of us who can work remotely start doing so now, it will contribute to lowering overall transmission in the population. Another important finding is that people over 65 – who are particularly at risk from severe Covid-19 illness – make over half of their contacts in other settings (not home, school or work), such as shops, restaurants and leisure centres. By avoiding these interactions, people who are most at risk from the new coronavirus could halve their risk of infection. By changing our behaviour now, and sustaining these changes throughout the outbreak, we can significantly reduce our own risk of infection, and the risk to others, and by doing so help protect those most vulnerable.

Sustainability is key here; these measures may reduce the reproduction number R, but as soon as they are lifted we could see transmission again, and another outbreak.

We must all take individual action to reduce Covid-19 transmission and slow down its spread, limit the number of infections and reduce the pressure on the health system so that everyone who needs medical care can get it. Starting now, and for the duration of this epidemic, we all have a role to play and a responsibility to modify our behaviour in order to protect the ones who are most at risk.

Last Friday (March 13) five County Councillors wrote to all Devon MP’s urging the Government to bring forward social distancing measures to reduce the impact of the Coronavirus.

They were gravely concerned that the people of Devon are being excessively exposed to the threat of death through the coronavirus, because the Government was failing to introduce the social distancing measures needed to contain the epidemic.

The UK has fewer hospital beds, fewer Intensive Care Unit beds and fewer specialist respiratory beds than other European countries. In Devon we have more than our fair share of the elderly population who will be especially vulnerable to the epidemic.

They are all members of the Health and Adult Care Scrutiny Committee, but their statement was issued in their personal capacities. They were:

Hilary Ackland (Exeter, Pinhoe and Mincinglake)
Marina Asvachin (Exeter, Wonford and St. Loyes)
Martin Shaw (Seaton and Colyton)
Nick Way (Crediton)
Claire Wright (Otter Valley)

Within the space of three days their intervention now looks prophetic as the Government, yesterday, changed course in the face of evidence emerging from Italy, effectively adopting this amongst other measures.

These five were doing their job, scrutinising Health and Well Being policies as they affect our lives locally on our behalves. Until now the Government has been following a strategy at odds with WHO advice and markedly different from the rest of the world. This has now changed as that strategy has been subject to expert scrutiny and in the face of reality.

Proper and fearless scrutiny is an entirely constructive process.

Although this group stressed they were acting in a personal capacity, Owl notices that not one of the majority Conservative members of the committee joined them.

Over 400 volunteer groups offering support to neighbours affected by coronavirus measures have been set up, using social media to co-ordinate activity. 

Owl has looked at the map and finds that they look to be dominated by facebook based organisations. So the only East Devon group showing is Exmouth. The Otterton and Ottery St Mary groups Owl has posted don’t feature.  Social media might not be the best way of communicating with the vulnerable over seventies.

www.civilsociety.co.uk 

A central body named Covid-19 Mutual Aid UK will focus on providing resources and connecting people to their nearest local groups, willing volunteers and those in need.

The group is run entirely by volunteers and not medical professionals. There are now more than 400 local groups across the country.