Rapid rise in cases takes numbers back to May levels in just 3 weeks

covid.joinzoe.com /post/incidence-update-sept-25

According to the latest COVID Symptom Study app figures, there are currently,16,130 daily new symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average over the two weeks up to 20 September (excluding care homes). The number of daily new cases continues to climb in the UK, with the highest numbers still in the North of England and the Midlands with London playing catch up.

The R values for the UK are currently England 1.4, Scotland 1.3 and Wales 1.4.

The latest figures were based on the data from 6,847 swab tests done between 7 September to 20 September.

Prevalence figures

The latest prevalence figures estimate that 147,498 people currently have symptomatic COVID in the UK, this figure has more than doubled since last week (69,686), for the second week in a row. This figure does not include long term COVID sufferers. Worryingly, in the North West, numbers have tripled in the last seven days from 12,544 to 36,316 estimated cases. In the North East and Yorkshire numbers have more than doubled from 12,916 to 27,731. This doubling of cases is also seen in London where cases have gone from 9,291 to 18,200 a significant jump in numbers. A full regional breakdown can be found here.

COVID Symptom Study Watch List

The COVID Symptom Study app’s Watch List this week has been extended to include 25 regions of the UK. All 25 regions have seen a huge increase in the number of COVID cases, meaning that all areas are of concern with many like Manchester and Glasgow affecting 1 % of the population. As COVID-19 continues to spread widely across the UK the COVID Symptom Study app Watch List will become less relevant.

Tim Spector, Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College London, comments: 

“The number of cases in the UK continues to rise at an alarming rate as we are seeing figures doubling weekly across the country, in particular we are worried about places like London and other major cities like Manchester, Belfast and Glasgow where cases are surging and the R value is around 1.4.

The government has confirmed that our data from our loyal app users  is playing a critical role and currently providing the most up-to-date figures. This is down to the way our app works, as a survey with millions of data points, we are able to produce data approximately 3 days ahead of the ONS’s household survey. We also have a greater number of positive swab tests, 151 positive tests in two weeks, around three times more than the ONS survey.

Having more positive swab tests and millions of people logging in everyday builds a clearer picture of what is happening in the different regions. We need as many people as possible logging in  the app right now, the more we have the better our data will be. We are urging people who want to help us track the progress of this second wave to download the app and log for themselves and their families.”

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