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“Professor John Curtice Makes Surprising Prediction For General Election 2019”

East Devon: be a trendsetter – elect Claire Wright – Independent!

“Professor John Curtice Makes Prediction On General Election 2019

The UK’s leading election expert Sir John Curtice told LBC he expects parties other than the two major ones to have a record number of MPs in the upcoming General Election.

The UK is expected to go to the polls on 12th December after Jeremy Corbyn told Labour MPs to back Boris Johnson’s proposal for an early General Election.

Sir John is the man who predicted Brexit and has been in charge of the accurate exit polls in the recent elections in 2015 and 2017.

And speaking to Shelagh Fogarty, he gave a surprising prediction of what we can expect.

He said: “I think the safest prediction is that we will have a record number of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs in this parliament.

“The SNP look set to win the vast majority of seats in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats given their position in the polls should do extremely well. We expect Caroline Lucas and the Green Party to hang on to her seat.

“We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties.

“That matters for two reasons. The first is that it makes it difficult for either Conservative or Labour to win an overall majority if you’re taking the fact that 100 of the seats are already spoken for.

“Secondly, it matters because this is an asymmetric election. It’s an election that Boris Johnson has to win. If he does not get a majority or something very close to it, he will not be able to stay in government because the Conservatives do not have any friends elsewhere.

“The Labour Party, by contrast, at least has the possibility of doing a deal with the SNP, a deal with the Liberal Democrats, getting support of the Greens and maybe even the DUP not standing in their way.

“Bear in mind, this is not an election that Labour have to win to stop Brexit, but it is an election that they and the other opposition parties simply need to deny the Conservatives a majority.”

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/shelagh-fogarty/professor-john-curtice-makes-surprising-prediction/

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Tactical voting – and how Claire Wright could be a VERY powerful MP!

“The major UK political parties go into the election with radically different positions on Brexit. In short:

A vote for the Conservative party is a vote to take Britain out of the EU.

A vote for the Labour Party is a vote to put any Brexit deal to a referendum, in which voters could vote to remain.

A vote for the Liberal Democrats is a vote to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit.

A vote for the Brexit Party is a vote for a no-deal Brexit.”

https://www.insider.com/tactical-voting-guide-how-to-vote-tactically-2019-general-election-by-constituency-brexit-2019-10

AND A VOTE FOR CLAIRE WRIGHT (INDEPENDENT) IS A VOTE FOR EAST DEVON!

Claire Wright could be a powerful figure if elected to Parliament. She could be amongst a handful of MPs that could tip the balance in a hung parliament.

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“Surge in voter registration applications as Boris Johnson pushes for December general election”

“Nearly 60 per cent of applications were from people aged 34 and under 34. …”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-news-latest-general-election-voter-registration-applications-a9174526.html

Are you one one of them? If not register at:

https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

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Does Boris Johnson want an election on 12 December so university students can’t vote?

“The December 12 date is really odd for many reasons. It’s so near Christmas, it’s after universities have ended their terms, etc,” the Labour leader said. “There’s lots of, lots of things very odd about that date.” …

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-christmas-general-election-december-12_uk_5db2bf4ce4b0a8937402e20f

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Young people – PLEASE register to vote then DO it

Go to: gov.uk/voting

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East Devon’s population explodes

In 2017, East Devon’s CEO and Electoral officer “lost” around 6,000 voters:

https://eastdevonwatch.org/2017/05/31/those-missing-6000-voters-electors-jump-from-96000-to-113000-plus/

and, when he had to explain it and put some effort into finding them, the population jumped from 96,000 to more than 113,000.

Now, in 2019, East Devon’s population is said to be 144,317!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Devon

30,000 plus people added in just 2 years!

Wonder if the population increase is reflected in the electoral roll?

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Voter ID: Johnson in his own words

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“Requiring voter ID in British elections suggests the government is adopting US ‘voter suppression’ tactics”

“This week’s Queen’s Speech revived proposals to introduce photographic ID requirements for voting in British elections. The Democratic Audit team assess the available evidence on the likely consequence of such a measure, and consider whether the legislation tackles the right priorities for improving our elections on which there is consensus, or suggests moves to enhance Tory election chances via excluding voters presumed unfavourable to them….”

Requiring voter ID in British elections suggests the government is adopting US ‘voter suppression’ tactics

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Young and old people, poor people, disabled people: Boris Johnson is trying to deprive you of your vote

He wants anyone who votes to produce a driving licence or passport in order to vote.

If you have never had a passport and don’t drive, or if you would like a passport or driving licence but can’t afford it, if you HAD a passport or driving licence in the past but gave them up because you no longer travel or drive due to ill-health

BORIS JOHNSON DOESN’T WANT YOU TO VOTE BECAUSE YOU MIGHT NOT VOTE TORY

That’s the kind of world we are living in now.

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Oh Lord! “Stupid” Neil Parish nearly got shot by local police!

PLEASE, PLEASE someone stand against this “stupid MP”!

The Evening Standard headline reads:

The Londoner:
‘Stupid’ MP in car chase caper
Tory MP nearly shot after tailing Jeremy Hunt’s armoured convoy in Volvo

“The Conservative MP Neil Parish risked being shot by police protecting Jeremy Hunt earlier this year after the Tory politician joined the then foreign secretary’s motorcade without authorisation. “They were not that far from f***ing shooting him because he was tailing the foreign secretary and they didn’t know who the f*** he was,” a source tells The Londoner.

Hunt, who was running for Tory leadership at the time, met Parish at a cheese farm shortly before a hustings in Exeter, near Parish’s constituency of Tiverton and Honiton, on June 28. “My intentions were honourable,” Parish told The Londoner this morning, before conceding: “I’m the guilty party. It’s a good job they didn’t shoot me.” As they travelled to Exeter, Parish “attempted to join the then foreign secretary’s convoy of three armoured police cars. Big, reinforced, five-and-a -half-tonne Land Rovers.

“He tried to join it in his Volvo because he thought it would be a quicker way to get into the venue,” the source said.

A second source explained: “The cops began to take evasive measures like running red lights and speeding over the limit. And he just kept up. And assumed he was allowed to be part of the convoy.”

The first source added: “The police officers in the convoy had gone, ‘What is this all about? Who is this d***head behind us?’ They were this close to calling in a full-on SWAT team.

“Fortunately, Devon and Cornwall Police were called to the scene. They pulled him over to one side and they screamed at him.”

“I am quite impulsive, I just did it. My biggest mistake was I didn’t tell them I was going to do it,” Parish told The Londoner.

“Then afterwards I thought, ‘Well, that was bloody stupid wasn’t it?’

“I’ve learnt my lesson, I will not be doing that again.”

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/londoners-diary/the-londoner-stupid-mp-in-car-chase-caper-a4259251.html

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New Statesman: Tories very worried about Claire Wright in East Devon

“… Very few surprises in terms of the Labour-Conservative battlegrounds. But noteworthy is that – as is echoed privately by many Conservatives from the area – the government regards Claire Wright, of the independent campaign in East Devon, as a serious challenger for the seat. …”

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/10/where-boris-johnson-thinks-next-election-will-be-won-and-lost

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“MP Neil Parish wants to hear from you”

Isn’t it strange that, just before elections, our MPs want to know what we think and the rest of the time they barely give us a thought!

Meanwhile, departing MP Hugo Swire has never really cared what we thought anyway and cares even less now so don’t expect any of thissort of electioneering from him!

“MP for Tiverton and Honiton, Neil Parish, is asking the members of his constituency to share their views on a number of topics – including the impending Brexit deal.

It’s a chance for the people of Honiton to voice their opinions on what is currently taking place within government and what roll-on effect this could potentially have on lives and businesses.

Neil Parish said: “As your local Member of Parliament I am keen to hear your views on the issues that matter to you, so I can continue campaigning to get a good deal for you.

“I am proud of all the work our local Conservative team has done so far. But there is more work to do.

“Please complete this survey so that you can have your say and make sure your interests are protected now and in the future.”

https://honiton.nub.news/n/mp-neil-parish-wants-to-hear-from-you-1570624544

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Candidate for new House of Commons speaker says it must be cleaned up of drink and drugs

“During a Press Gallery hustings for the nine Commons Speaker candidates, Sir Lindsay Hoyle said: “It’s not just drink we’ve got to catch out, there is a drug problem, and I genuinely believe that counselling and real support should be available for all staff and members.”

Source: The Waugh Zone, Huffington Post

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Comments

General elections: why we need proportional representation more than ever

“It’s easy right now to get caught up in the daily drama of politics – to focus on individuals, and the game playing, and to forget that the current political chaos is all part of a much bigger picture.

Because for all the daily drama, the last year of political turmoil is the outcome of a system that is failing and has been failing for a long time.

The party system is fragmenting and has been for a while. The last two General Elections were the most volatile – that’s the movement of people between parties – since 1931.

And new political cleavages have come to prominence – not only Brexit but on climate, internationalism and more. These shifts are causing the system to malfunction.

All democratic systems have trade-offs. The Westminster system trade-off is, supposedly, government stability and the ability for the government of the day to enact its programme with as little friction as possible.

In return, we have to accept an Executive which has – compared to other democracies – extraordinary power, and an upper chamber packed with unelected individuals – an undemocratic and therefore weak chamber in order to maintain executive strength.

And we’re lumbered with a disproportional electoral system that wastes the majority of votes, sacrificing fair outcomes in order to create a majority. Sixty-eight percent of votes in 2017 made no impact on the local result, our analysis shows.

But that trade-off to get ‘strong’ one party government only works in a two-party system.

In a world that’s a bit more complex than that, this arrangement is over. For good.

Yet we are left with an overbearing executive and warped election outcomes. Parties and candidates can slip in on fractions of the vote, while the prospect of ‘wrong winner’ elections looms large: a government in power despite winning fewer votes than the next placed party.

When marginal seats are won with just handfuls of votes in it, our system is easily exploited. And the prize is huge.

Our political system is not designed to share power. It is a system that preserves hierarchy and hoards power at the centre. As system so stuck in the past that there are still seats reserved in our second chamber for male aristocrats.

As well as flaws in the system, there are growing inequalities at the input end. Turnout has increased at each of the last four general elections. But the gaps in who turns out are growing. You are far less likely to vote if you are young, working class or from an ethnic minority. That was not the case decades ago.

Proposals for voter ID can only make this worse – potentially disenfranchising millions at a time when people already feel marginalised: just 4% feel able to ‘fully’ influence decisions by MPs at Westminster (BMG polling for ERS this year).

As well as a system that hordes power at the centre, and ignores votes, there are huge gaps in our electoral rules themselves. Vast sums of money flow into our democracy with little oversight.

You can still for instance, set up a company in the UK and fund political activity through it even if that company does no business here – one of many loopholes that put fair elections under threat.

So we need to stop seeing democratic reform as a nice add on. Democratic reform is not separate to economic and social change – it is fundamental.

The ballot box is the great equaliser of any democracy. But that only works if votes are equal – both in terms of who participates and whether their votes count. And it only works when our Parliament is fully elected, not a place for preserving privilege.

We cannot underestimate the scale of the challenge but nor can we assume that these systemic flaws can be used for good. It’s now time to create a democracy that works for everyone.”

The current crisis has been a long time coming – and Westminster’s system is behind it

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“More than 9 million eligible UK voters ‘not correctly registered’ “

PLEASE check and if you are not registered, you can do it in less than 5 minutes here:

https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

“More than 9 million people who are eligible to vote in the UK are not correctly registered and are at risk of not being able to have their say in a potential snap election, according to research.

The finding sparked renewed calls for Britain to follow Canada and Finland, among other countries, who automatically register voters. One potential model would enable people to opt in when they engage with government bodies such as the DVLA, NHS and welfare agencies.

Research by the Electoral Reform Society (ERS) analysed electoral registers and found that 17% of eligible voters in Great Britain, as many as 9.4 million people, were either missing from the electoral register or not registered at their current address, with major errors affecting up to 5.6 million people.

It highlighted stark differences in registration levels between younger people, renters, low-income and black and ethnic minority people, compared with older white people who own their homes.

The study also showed that the number of people not correctly registered had risen from 16% of eligible voters in 2015, representing as many as 8.3 million people. …”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/27/more-than-9-million-eligible-voters-not-correctly-registered?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

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Accountability, East Devon Electoral/Returning Officer, EDDC, General Election, Mark Williams CEO EDDC

“General elections – the role of the Acting Returning Officer”

Given that our Acting Returning Officer (CEO Matk Williams) is STILL making multiple mistakes after many years in the job (including being summinsed by a Parliamentary Committee to explain some of his more controversial actions)

https://eastdevonwatch.org/2014/10/14/official-transcript-of-eddc-ceo-evidence-to-parliamentary-committee-on-voter-engagement/

he might appreciate this refresher and he can”t then plead ignorance:

“Ben Standing sets out some of the steps Acting Returning Officers should be taking now, with another general election seemingly around the corner.

If the news is anything to go by, we are likely to have our third UK Parliamentary Election in five years soon. This is despite the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 which was intended to take the politics out of calling elections.

If an election is called, it will be against a backdrop of a charged political climate and the recent creation of a new and potentially major political party (the Brexit Party).

From the perspective of an Acting Returning Officer the combination of inexperienced candidates and a charged political climate heightens the risk of something unexpected happening and of challenges being made against the way the vote has been managed.

Although mistakes do happen and can usually be rectified, the reputational damage that can flow from even simple errors can be significant. A mistake with the allocation of block votes led to 41,939 votes being counted in a small constituency in England that only had 7,000 registered voters and where only 2,477 ballot papers had been issued. The mistake led to the formation of a residents’ campaign group, a court supervised recount and costly High Court proceedings.

Now is an opportune moment for Acting Returning Officers to review their election plans, to ensure that they meet the relevant legal requirements and that contingency arrangements are in place to respond to a snap election.

The role of an Acting Returning Officer is to ensure that the election is administered effectively. It should be remembered that Acting Returning Officers can appoint one or more persons to discharge any of their functions; however they cannot delegate responsibility for delivering the election.

So what should Acting Returning Officers be doing? In theory, as electoral law hasn’t changed, Acting Returning Officers should be doing exactly the same as they have in relation to previous elections. However in practice there are a number of steps which may assist Acting Returning Officers. These include:

considering the candidate registration process. There may be an increase in inexperienced candidates (both due to candidates being fielded by the Brexit Party and the high profile loss of the Conservative whip for over 20 current MPs). Have candidates followed the correct procedure? Additional resources may be required to assist candidates with the registration process.

considering how the current procedure would cope with a significant increase in turnout. For example is there sufficient capacity in the polling stations, have sufficient staff been trained in order to ensure that votes are verified and counted in a reasonable timeframe (with the verification having taken place before 2 am). Considering this at an early stage is essential, as adjusting plans later is often more difficult.

reviewing the voter registration process. If an election is called, it is likely to be seen, at least in part, as a vote on how (and if) we should leave the European Union. It is possible that there could be a surge in the registration of new voters. Sufficient staff need to be trained and available to processes applications. In my experience, just because the public has been reminded to register to vote a number of months doesn’t mean that a significant proportion won’t try to do so within a few days of the deadline. Councils must be able to deal with any last minute registrations.

training polling station staff to manage difficult situations. Whether or not we leave the European Union is an emotive issue and polling station staff will need to know what to do in the case incidents in and outside the polling station. This could include being aware of how the police should be alerted if necessary (often local police forces will provide a dedicated number that polling station staff can use).

reminding staff how to deal with media. There is undoubtedly going to be significant media interest and staff will need to be reminded of what they can and cannot say.

staff and the public should also be reminded of the significant number of electoral offences. The integrity of the count is paramount.

a person may act as a proxy for any number of close relatives, but a person may not have more than one proxy at a time. The proxy must be registered in accordance with the relevant deadlines, but contingency plans should be put in place ahead of time to deal with any emergency proxies required.

ballot papers must by law be printed in accordance with the directions for printing in the appendix to the relevant election rules. It is strongly advisable that as a minimum, enough ballot papers to meet a 100% turnout should be printed (I have encountered a situation where a higher than average turnout almost left the local authority with insufficient ballot papers – a situation that no Acting Returning Officer wants to find themselves in!).

although polling stations close at 10pm, any voter in a queue at their polling station at 10pm may still apply for a ballot paper. Efficient planning should ensure that queues should not cause significant delays, however if it is anticipated that queue management may be an issue prior arrangements should be agreed with the local police.

Ultimately Acting Returning Officers need to ensure that they fully understand the legislative framework concerning the conduct of the election, and have an effective management procedure in place, so that they are able to respond to any unforeseen or unusual situations.

Acting Returning Officers who, without reasonable cause, are guilty of any act or omission in breach of their official duties are liable on summary conviction to an unlimited fine. Accordingly it is important that acting returning officers have the correct insurance cover.“

https://www.localgovernmentlawyer.co.uk/governance/314-governance-a-risk-articles/41542-general-elections-the-role-of-the-acting-returning-officer

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Tories massively borrow their way out of austerity with an election coming up

“A marked deterioration in the public finances means Sajid Javid will have to relax borrowing limits if the government is to boost spending and cut taxes before an early general election.

With the Treasury preparing for the the autumn budget, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the slowing economy and a series of accounting changes had made life more difficult for the chancellor.

Boris Johnson’s government has pledged higher spending for the NHS, schools and the police since it was formed in late July, but against the backdrop of an economy flirting with recession. The ONS said borrowing in the first five months of the financial year was up 28% on the same period a year ago, at more than £31bn.

In addition, changes to the way the ONS accounts for student debt and public sector pensions, together with new corporation tax data, means the size of the deficit in the last full financial year, 2018-19, has almost doubled. A deficit of £23.6bn has been revised up to £41.3bn.

Analysts said that if the trend for the first months of 2019-20 continued for the rest of the year the deficit would be close to £53bn, £12bn higher than the government’s fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility, estimated in March.

The government’s fiscal rules stipulate that borrowing in 2020-21 should be below 2% of national output after taking into account the state of the economy. Achieving that would require either spending cuts or tax increases amounting to 0.5% of gross domestic product – about £10bn.

Andrew Wishart, the UK economist at Capital Economics, said the existing fiscal target was “dead in the water”. …”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/24/tories-increase-borrowing-by-28-as-possible-election-looms?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

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“How an Independent Devon councillor [Claire Wright] could hold the fate of the COUNTRY in her hands”

“Devon County Councillor Claire Wright could hold the fate of the country in her hands, bookmakers Ladbrokes are suggesting.

The Independent councillor for the Otter Valley ward has twice stood for election to Parliament and on both occasions came second behind the Conservatives.

But following Sir Hugo Swire announcing last week that he will be stepping down from his role as the MP for East Devon at the next election, Cllr Wright has declared that she will once again be standing. She is now the favourite to take over from Sir Hugo.

Flavible Politics, making projections based on a ComRes poll from September 12 have her winning the East Devon seat in their latest election predictions.

New Statesman political correspondent Patrick Maguire, had also said that apart from North Down, East Devon is just about the only seat in the UK that could plausibly be won by an independent.

Ladbrokes have set the odds on who will have the most seats after the next election at 10/11 for both a coalition of the Conservatives, DUP and the Brexit Party and a coalition of the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, the Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru, the Green Party, the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland and the Social Democratic and Labour Party, any elected Independents could determine who the next Prime Minister is.

Posting on Twitter, Ladbrokes said: “It looks like Jason Zadrozny and Claire Wright will get to choose who the next PM is.”

Cllr Jadrozny is the leader of Ashfield District Council, currently run by the Ashfield Independents.

Cllr Wright said on Twitter that she could handle the pressure and that if there is an election soon, she hopes to be East Devon’s MP.

She said: “Over the last three years the Conservatives have been focusing on two things. One to save the party from Nigel Farage and to do that they have basically turned the party into the Brexit Party. Secondly, they have been focusing on cutting public services.

“I see the damage that those austerity policies have done in my ward every single week. Party politics does seem to be broken. The two main parties are irretrievably split. The Conservatives in particular seem to be intent on self-destruction and I think Hugo Swire’s resignation is very much part of that.

“East Devon residents deserve someone who is not going to be tied to the party whip, who is not going to be chasing a ministerial career, but someone who is going to have one agenda only, and that is to put their views and needs above everything else.

“If there is an election in the next few weeks, I hope that I can be that MP.”

She said that the announcement that Mr Swire would not stand in the next election was a shock, but that she has been preparing with her team for a year and that they have recently ramped up their preparations.

Predicting a November election she said: “This will be my third election and my team and I are ready to build on the two previous elections.

“The momentum in 2017 and the excitement and energy was incredible – it felt then that I could win, and now we are that much further on.

“I was a serious threat. Brian May backed me before the last election as one of his ‘common decency’ election candidates.

“I think East Devon will be close whoever the Conservatives put forward. This is the Tory heartland. East Devon has been Conservative for 150 years. That’s what I’m up against. It’s a huge challenge.

“This will be my third general election and my manifesto will be based on a survey I carried out at the beginning of this year. Hundreds and hundreds of people filled out the survey and I feel confident I know the issues that people are concerned about in East Devon.

“The Conservatives have just been disastrous for the country – they have gone from one crisis to the next. It’s been like watching a slow car crash – and in the last few weeks it’s turned into absolute meltdown.

“The whole Tory agenda is simply about saving their own skin. The rhetoric seems to be about how they can out-Brexit the Brexit party and turn themselves into the new Brexit party.

“The things they should have been focusing on are public services and the environment. Devon County Council has lost £100m from its budget and all the people in Devon have lost out on services as a result of those cuts.”

Announcing his decision to stand down, Hugo Swire, who has been the MP for the area since 2001, said: “At a meeting earlier of the Executive if the East Devon Conservative Association I announced that I would not be standing for re-election as the Member of Parliament.

“It was my original intention to stand down in 2022, when the next general election was scheduled to be held.”

He continued: “I served in a number of different roles in opposition, including in the shadow cabinet as Shadow Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport. In Government I was first appointed as Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office and then Minister of State in the Foreign Commonwealth Office.

“Whilst I was honoured to have been appointed to these roles, my greatest privilege has been to serve my constituents, regardless of their political allegiance, I am truly grateful for consistently returning me at elections and will continue to serve them to the best of my ability until an election is called.”

Reaffirming his support to Mr Johnson, he added: “We live in challenging political times, but I remain convinced that to bring the country back together we need to deliver on Brexit and I shall continue to support the Prime Minster and the Government in their endeavours.”

Bruce de Saram, chairman of East Devon Conservatives, said: “East Devon Conservatives would like to thank Hugo for his outstanding work as our MP since 2001 and also his service as a Northern Ireland and Foreign Office Minister, where he developed a passion for the Commonwealth among his many other interests.

“Hugo rose to the challenge of being our MP, winning five general elections. He has continually challenged injustice with great passion and been very visible in the constituency, standing up for local residents.

“We are very sorry to say goodbye to him and wish him well for the future.

“We will now begin a process to select a candidate to build on Hugo’s excellent work.”

https://www.devonlive.com/news/how-independent-devon-councillor-could-3324854

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Claire Wright on Swire, politics and East Devon

Looking forward to Swire’s better explanation of his reasons for standing down, given that he adores Boris and supports a hard Brexit.

Was there the suggestion he might be deselected?
Was he frit?
Does Boris have the (formerly safe, but not now) seat for one of his mates?
Is a local Tory polutico ready to make his or her mark?

Come on, Hugo – spill the beans!