The government has been accused of launching an “attack on nature” with its mini-budget, which conservationists warn could roll back environmental rules.

Miranda Bryant www.theguardian.com 

Groups including the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), the Wildlife Trusts and the National Trust have criticised plans, announced on Friday, to create 38 “investment zones” across England.

The announcement of the new areas by the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, where planning rules will be loosened to release more land for commercial use and housing, will act as a “carte blanche” for development, leading conservation charities warned, and represent an “unprecedented attack on nature”.

“Make no mistake, we are angry. This government has today launched an attack on nature,” the RSPB tweeted. “As of today, from Cornwall to Cumbria, Norfolk to Nottingham, wildlife is facing one of the greatest threats it’s faced in decades.”

Making reference to a new bill introduced to parliament on Thursday, which could lead to the removal of EU environmental protections such as the Habitats Regulations, the charity added: “What the government has proposed in today’s mini-budget on top of yesterday’s announcements potentially tears up the most fundamental legal protections our remaining wildlife has.”

Beccy Speight, the charity’s chief executive, said: “Nature is already in trouble. Taken together, these announcements, combined with the rumoured watering down of the new land management schemes for farming, could be the final nail in its coffin.”

She added: “Our economy and our health depend on a thriving natural world.”

In a strongly worded tweet in support of the RSPB, the Wildlife Trusts said: “Make no mistake – we are also incredibly angry.

“We stand with RSPB England in calling out the unprecedented attack on nature launched by UK government over the last few days. We’ll be challenging this together and asking for our supporters to stand with us.”

Craig Bennett, the trust’s chief executive, said environmental organisations were previously reassured over nature protections lost through Brexit, but now nature is in “catastrophe”.

“Farming reform was supposed to be the silver lining but now the government looks set to renege on that too,” he said, adding: “We need more nature.”

Sharing the RSPB’s tweet, the National Trust pledged to work with other nature charities and supporters to “defend important protections for nature long into the future”.

Labour also joined criticism over the planned investment zones, calling it “reckless”.

Lisa Nandy, the shadow levelling up secretary, said: “Slashing standards, destroying the environment and scrapping affordable housing is reckless and offers no prospect of sustainable growth. For most people, that’s levelling down, not up.

“This country needs a serious plan to get jobs and investment into every nation and region, money back into people’s pockets and locally driven growth, not more Amazon warehouses and deregulation.”

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) dismissed the claims, tweeting: “We have a plan for economic growth. It is not true to claim we are attacking nature nor going back on our commitments.

“We have legislated through the Environment Act and will continue to improve our regulations and wildlife laws in line with our ambitious vision.”

A Defra spokesperson added: “Farmers are brilliant at producing high-quality food for consumption at home and for export and now we need them to go further, as productivity gains have been flat for many years.

“To boost the rural economy, food production and our food security, we will continue to support farmers and land managers by reviewing farm regulation, boosting investment and innovation in the sector.

“This autumn we will set out our plans for working with industry to maximise the long-term productivity, resilience, competitiveness, and environmental stewardship of the British countryside.”

A Treasury spokesperson claimed that investment zones will “enable locally elected leaders to set out bold new visions for their areas, and we want to ensure that they have every tool available to them in driving forwards local growth.”

They added: “The government remains committed to setting a new legally binding target to halt the decline of biodiversity in England by 2030.

“We are working closely with areas to develop tailored proposals that support their ambitions and deliver benefits for local residents.”

It also shows Kwasi Kwarteng’s new tax and benefit policies will result in those on middle incomes losing most, with the poorest fifth of households gaining an average of £90, the middle fifth losing £780 and the top 5% of earners gaining £2,520.

Welcome to Trussonomics – Owl

Miranda Bryant www.theguardian.com 

The chancellor’s mini-budget will disproportionately benefit London and the south-east, a new analysis has found, marking a sharp U-turn from the levelling up strategy of the previous government.

According to the Resolution Foundation, an independent thinktank, households in London and the south-east could gain an average of £1,600 next year from Friday’s fiscal statement. This is three times as much as those in Wales, the north-east and Yorkshire, which it predicts will gain an average of £500.

Its calculations also found that overall, Kwasi Kwarteng’s new tax and benefit policies will result in those on middle incomes losing most, with the poorest fifth of households gaining an average of £90, the middle fifth losing £780 and the top 5% of earners gaining £2,520.

The measures announced by the new chancellor on Friday included a string of tax giveaways that are expected to benefit the rich at the expense of those at the lower end of the income spectrum.

The new measures include scrapping the 45p additional tax rate on earnings above £150,000, removing the cap on bankers’ bonuses, cancelling the planned rise in corporation tax to 25% and doubling the stamp duty holiday on property purchases to £250,000.

The incomes of the richest 5% will grow by 2% in the next financial year as a result of the tax cuts, the thinktank said, while the remaining 95% of the population will get poorer as the cost of living crisis mounts.

An additional 2.3 million people will fall below the poverty line, it estimates, including 700,000 children.

Meanwhile, the Resolution Foundation said borrowing is on course to settle at 3.4% of GDP in the medium term – 0.7% higher than the average level under the Labour governments between 1997 and 2010.

The £45bn of tax cuts announced by the chancellor would need to increase GDP in the long term by 4% to be self-funding. This, the thinktank said, is implausible.

It said in order for debt to fall in the middle of the current decade without raising taxes, the government would have to make spending cuts of £35bn in 2026-27, a sum that would be on the scale of former chancellor George Osborne’s spending cuts in 2010.

Torsten Bell, the thinktank’s chief executive, accused Kwarteng of “blowing the budget” on a £45bn package of tax cuts.

“In doing so he rejected not just Treasury orthodoxy but also the legacy of Boris Johnson as a wholly new approach to economic policy was unveiled,” he said.

“Today’s Conservative party is no longer fiscally conservative or courting the red wall, with debt on course to rise in each and every year, and its focus is shifting south, where the main beneficiaries of these tax cuts live.”

In spite of the chancellor’s announcement, the cost of living crisis will result in “virtually all households getting poorer” next year, he said, amid high inflation and rising interest rates.

“But while the measures announced won’t prevent more than 2 million people falling below the poverty line, they will mean only the very richest households in Britain seeing their incomes grow,” he added.

While he said the package was likely to boost growth in the short term, it would take a “large dose of economic good fortune” – such as a dramatic fall in gas prices – to make the move fully pay off.

“Should strong growth fail to materialise, and tax rises be ruled out, then Osborne-esque spending cuts would be needed to achieve the chancellor’s fiscal rules.”

The Resolution Foundation’s findings come after the Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank said the chancellor was “betting the house” by putting government debt on an “unsustainable rising path”.

The Treasury did not comment on the findings, instead pointing to the chancellor’s speech on Friday.

Coronavirus cases and hospitalisations are rising once again in England after declining since early July, data suggests, with experts warning people should stay at home if ill and get a Covid booster if eligible.

Nicola Davis www.theguardian.com 

According to the latest figures on the government coronavirus dashboard, both the number of cases detected through mass community testing, and patients admitted to hospital with Covid have risen in the past seven days, suggesting the country could be facing a resurgence of the virus.

On Monday, 781 Covid patients were admitted to hospital in England, up from 519 the week before, with the seven day total rising 17%, from 3,434 in the week ending 12 September to 4,015 in the week ending 19 September.

As noted by the Health Service Journal, admissions in the south-west rose 39%, to 509, in the last seven days, and by 30% in the north-east and Yorkshire region.

While data on Covid infection levels across the UK is expected from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) tomorrow, data from the Zoe health study suggests cases are rising, with hints also seen in the latest figures for the number of cases picked up in mass community testing in England.

Dr Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser at the UK Health Security Agency, said there were actions people could take.

“While Covid-19 rates are still low, the latest data for the last seven days indicate a rise in hospitalisations and a rise in positive tests reported from the community,” she said.

“For those eligible, the time to get your autumn booster is now. Getting a booster will give your immune system time to build up your protection against being severely ill from Covid-19 as we move into winter.

“All of the available boosters provide good protection against severe illness from Covid-19 and getting your booster sooner rather than later is crucial.

“As it gets colder and we head towards winter, we will start to see respiratory infections pick up – please try to stay at home if you are unwell and avoid contact with vulnerable people.”

People renting homes in Devon are seeing their income increasingly squeezed as housing benefit has failed to keep up with rising costs. Almost all of the 556 privately rented properties available in Devon this week on the Zoopla website are advertised at more than the local housing allowance – the amount paid by housing benefit.

Edward Oldfield www.devonlive.com

The sum varies according to the local rental market but has been frozen since 2020. It is meant to be set to cover the cost of the cheapest 30 per cent of homes on the private rental market. But rents soared in Devon during the pandemic as landlords sold up or forced out tenants so they could switch to more profitable holiday lets. As a result, almost all the properties listed this week in Devon, from one-bedroom flats to four-bedroom homes, were unaffordable from housing benefit payments alone.

That means renters claiming the support will have to find extra cash to cover the shortfall from their other income. It could also force families to move around the county in a kind of postcode lottery, to where the allowance most closely matches rents, usually in more rural areas. Others could end up homeless if they cannot find the extra cash to cover the gap when they are forced to move.

MPs on the select committee for Work and Pensions released a report in the summer recommending an increase in the local housing allowance. The housing campaign group Shelter says: “For renters, the cost of the living crisis is being driven by a failing housing policy. Having to make up ever-increasing shortfalls in housing benefits means that a growing number of families are now having to make the difficult choice between rent and food: eviction or eating. As the cost of living rises, growing housing benefit shortfalls risk pushing people into homelessness as they struggle to avoid rent arrears and eviction.”

Searching on Zoopla this week for two-bedroom homes suitable for a single parent with two young children, the cheapest rental in Exeter was a flat in Cowick Street, advertised at £183 a week. That is more than £25 a week above the allowance of £156.49.

Outside the city, but still in the area covered by the allowance, which has the highest rates in Devon, there was a flat in Starcross at £156, a flat in The Parade, Exmouth, at £167, and a two-bedroom semi-detached house at Christow at £179.

In South Devon, where the allowance is lower at £138.08, there were no affordable properties on offer. The cheapest two-bedroom home was a flat in Pembroke Road, Torquay, at £150 a week. In Torbay outside Torquay, the lowest price was £196 for a two-bedroom terraced house in Brixham. The cheapest similar property in Paignton was a cottage at £207, or a terraced house at £208.

Torbay has a particularly acute problem with housing affordability, as one in four households renting privately and there is a low level of social housing. That means families are even more vulnerable to the housing crisis, as rents rise due to a shortage of available homes, and rises in inflation and energy bills erode spending power. Commenting on a post on Facebook about the effect of the housing crisis in Paignton, one user said they had been looking for a property to rent for seven months, and had viewed around 50 without success.

In North Devon, the local housing allowance for a two-bedroom property is £126.58. Of the six homes available for rent in the Barnstaple area, the cheapest was a maisonette at Sticklepath at £164 a week, followed by a flat at Fremington for £167. In the Bideford area, a two-bedroom house was on offer at £138 a week in Great Torrington, the cheapest in the whole of Devon, but still more than £10 a week above the local allowance.

The cheapest three-bedroom home in Devon was a bungalow at Highampton, near Beaworthy, close to the western edge of the Exeter valuation area. The cost at £160 a week put it below the £189.86 Exeter allowance. Renters a few miles west or north are entitled to a much lower amount for the same size of property, at £149.59 a week. That is the rate payable in Braunton, where the next cheapest three-bedroom home was on offer at £173.

Three bedroom homes at £185 a week were advertised at Hatherleigh and Okehampton, both in the Exeter allowance area and therefore just below the allowance limit. At Paignton, where the amount payable is the South Devon figure of £168, the same rent for a three-bedroom home made it unaffordable for claimants.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics shows that the cost of private home rental in the South West region grew by the fastest rate ever in the twelve months to June. Prices were 4.1 percent higher in June 2022 than in June 2021 – the largest year-on-year increase since comparative records began in 2006. The record-breaking hike in home rental came at the same time that workers across Britain saw their regular pay fall by 3 percent, according to separate figures from the ONS.

A new area of open green space for local people to enjoy next year has been acquired by East Devon District Council.

eastdevondistrc-newsroom.prgloo.com

This first new public space marks an important landmark in creating the Clyst Valley Regional Park, which stretches from National Trust Killerton to Clyst St Mary near the Exe Estuary. The new space is expected to open to the public in 2023, providing a wider choice for residents and visitors as an alternative to protected sites such as the East Devon Pebblebed Heaths and the Exe Estuary.

Roughly equivalent to the size of 9 rugby pitches, the land for the area has been paid for by money from developers, known as Section 106 payments and the Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL), as part of their obligations when building much-needed homes for local people.  Commercial sensitivity around the sale means that the purchase price of the land is not disclosed.

Work to establish the new green space will now start. The first step is to seek planning permission for change of use of the land from agricultural to public open space.

Councillor Geoff Jung, East Devon District Council’s Portfolio Holder for Coast, Country and the Environment, said:

I am really pleased to see this open green space coming forward, which will form a part of East Devon’s Clyst Valley Regional Park. The new area will provide access into our beautiful countryside with proposals to create ponds, woodland and flower-rich meadows in a nature-rich, public green space.

The new space will be located near Broadclyst Station and is presently a series of meadows and hedgerows with a stream running through. There are some characterful old oak trees, and lovely views towards Pinhoe ridge.

Councillor Paul Arnott, East Devon District Council’s Leader and Portfolio Holder for Strategic Development, said:

This is one of the best schemes currently being run by East Devon District Council and when it is complete residents will gain quiet, sustainable travel routes from Cranbrook to Exeter without needing to get in a car at all.

We hope that local residents will appreciate a walk along the meandering stream through the middle of the site or just taking in the expansive new green space.

On behalf of East Devon District Council’s Ward Councillors for Broadclyst, Councillor Sarah Chamberlain, said:

We are really pleased to see this fantastic area of open green space come forward for the residents of Broadclyst Station and surrounding areas.

It is a great opportunity to use this area as the wonderful open countryside that it is. It enjoys many features including a very old tree that has gone almost silver in age, many fantastic views and even a stream.

We hope residents enjoy the space as a link to Exeter or just to relax and take a walk.

At a future meeting of East Devon District Council’s Cabinet there will be a discussion on the long term management of the site.

Budleigh loses a celebrated resident

Wolf Hall writer Dame Hilary Mantel has died “suddenly yet peacefully” surrounded by close family and friends aged 70, HarperCollins has announced. She was also famed for the follow-up novels Bring Up The Bodies and The Mirror and The Light.

Phil Norris www.devonlive.com 

In a statement, 4th Estate Books wrote: “We are heartbroken at the death of our beloved author, Dame Hilary Mantel, and our thoughts are with her friends and family, especially her husband, Gerald.

“This is a devastating loss and we can only be grateful she left us with such a magnificent body of work.”

Dame Hilary is best known for her epic The Wolf Hall Trilogy of which Diarmaid MacCulloch, Oxford theology professor and biographer of Thomas Cromwell said: “Hilary has reset the historical patterns through the way in which she’s reimagined the man.”

She won the Man Booker Prize twice, for Wolf Hall and its sequel, Bring Up the Bodies, which also won the 2012 Costa Book of the Year. The conclusion to her ground-breaking The Wolf Hall Trilogy,

The Mirror and the Light, was published in 2020 to huge critical acclaim, an instant number one fiction best-seller and longlisted for The Booker Prize 2020 and winner of the Walter Scott Prize for Historical Fiction, which she first won for Wolf Hall.

Bill Hamilton, Dame Hilary’s agent at literary agency A.M. Heath, said it had been the “greatest privilege” to work with her throughout her career. He said: “Her wit, stylistic daring, creative ambition and phenomenal historical insight mark her out as one of the greatest novelists of our time.

“She will be remembered for her enormous generosity to other budding writers, her capacity to electrify a live audience, and the huge array of her journalism and criticism, producing some of the finest commentary on issues and books.

“Emails from Hilary were sprinkled with bon mots and jokes as she observed the world with relish and pounced on the lazy or absurd and nailed cruelty and prejudice.

“There was always a slight aura of otherworldliness about her, as she saw and felt things us ordinary mortals missed, but when she perceived the need for confrontation she would fearlessly go into battle.

“And all of that against the backdrop of chronic health problems, which she dealt with so stoically. We will miss her immeasurably, but as a shining light for writers and readers she leaves an extraordinary legacy. Our thoughts go out to her beloved husband Gerald, family and friends.”

As  the markets give the thumbs down with the pound plunging and the costs of government borrowing increasing……the Tories really look to be on course to crash the economy – Owl

Mini-Budget response –  Institute for Fiscal Studies

Paul Johnson, IFS Director, said

“Today, the Chancellor announced the biggest package of tax cuts in 50 years without even a semblance of an effort to make the public finance numbers add up. Instead, the plan seems to be to borrow large sums at increasingly expensive rates, put government debt on an unsustainable rising path, and hope that we get better growth. This marks such a dramatic change in the direction of economic policy-making that some of the longer-serving cabinet ministers might be worried about getting whiplash.

Mr Kwarteng has shown himself willing to gamble with fiscal sustainability in order to push through these huge tax cuts. He is willing to shrug off the risks of inflation, and to invite significantly higher interest rates. And he has avoided scrutiny by presenting a Budget in all but name without accompanying forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Injecting demand into this high-inflation economy leaves the government pulling in the exact opposite direction to the Bank of England, who are likely to raise rates in response. Early signs are that the markets – who will have to lend the money required to plug the gap in the government’s fiscal plans – aren’t impressed. This is worrying. Government borrowing is set on an upward path. It will reach its third-highest peak since the war, and remain at well over £100 billion, even once the energy support package is withdrawn.

And we heard nothing on public spending. It seems almost inconceivable that plans made last year, when inflation was expected to peak around 3%, will not need topping up at some point, unless the government is willing to allow a (further) deterioration in the range and quality of public services. Presumably this government would borrow for that also. 

Mr Kwarteng is not just gambling on a new strategy, he is betting the house.”

Go to ifs.org.uk to read the full article which includes penetrating analyses of each policy announced. Here are a couple of examples:

Income tax and National Insurance contributions

…. Only those with incomes over at least £155,000 will be net beneficiaries. They gain from the abolition of the additional rate, and are unaffected by freezing the personal allowance because their incomes are too high to be eligible for one anyway. This is quite a different picture from that before the mini-Budget, which implied larger tax rises across the board, but especially so for higher earners.

Taken together, today’s measures undo much of the tax rises introduced by Johnson and Sunak, and undo all of them for the highest-income households. The losses for middle- and higher-income households from previously introduced policies will be roughly halved by today’s measures. The richest tenth of households, who were set to lose around £3,500 a year (3%) on average in 2025-26 under Johnson and Sunak’s plans, will now gain around £700 a year (1%) on average.

Investment Zones

The government intends to create new Investment Zones getting special treatment for tax, regulation and local governance. The full details, and therefore the cost, have not yet been confirmed.

Tax sites within the new Investment Zones will offer a raft of temporary business tax reliefs similar to those available in Freeports, but even more generous and for ten years rather than five. These tax breaks are likely to increase economic activity in these areas, but some of that would otherwise have happened elsewhere in the UK.

This raises the question of why it is better to have lower taxes in some parts of the country than others – encouraging people and businesses to move to the favoured areas – rather than spending the same money on (smaller) tax cuts spread evenly across the country: for example, whether it is intended to help ‘level up’ deprived areas and, if so, whether the areas and policies chosen are appropriate for that objective.

Since the tax breaks are temporary, another question is how much businesses will find it worth making long-term investments that will tie them into the area for longer than that – and, correspondingly, how much the economic benefits to favoured areas will persist after the tax breaks expire.

The most optimistic person in the room is Liz Truss, who is sure that Trussonomics is the path forward. “Lower taxes lead to economic growth, there’s no doubt in my mind about that,” she told reporters this week.

But there was no doubt in her mind when she joined the Lib Dems either, or when she called for the monarchy to be abolished, or when she campaigned for Remain.

Is having politicians who go balls-deep on their ideologies, then U-turn and go balls-deep on something else such a great idea? 

(From London Playbook Politico)

Get beyond the inevitable photo of Ms Hernandez with the new Chief Constable to read the questions raised by councillors, other than Conservatives, including from Paul Arnott. – Owl

Devon and Cornwall Police’s new chief constable was quizzed on how he plans to tackle hate crime, community policing and violence against women and girls before being formally approved for the role. 

Philip Churm, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk

Chief Constable Will Kerr with Alison Hernandez (courtesy: Office of Police and Crime Commissioner)

At a confirmation hearing of the Devon and Cornwall police and crime panel in Plymouth on Wednesday (21 September) Will Kerr OBE, a deputy chief constable in Scotland was endorsed as the region’s new chief constable.  

His appointment follows the retirement of Shaun Sawyer last month who had been in the role for more than a decade. 

Police and crime commissioner Alison Hernandez announced at the beginning of the month that DCC Kerr was her preferred candidate for the job, describing him as “an exceptional strategic leader” – but the police and crime panel is required to approve her decision. 

Panel member and Conservative councillor for Woolwell, Nicky Hopwood, urged the new chief constable not to ignore smaller communities 

“Although you’ve invited people from the cities, we are covered in towns and parishes through Devon and Cornwall,” she said.

“So, can I have assurance that the towns and parishes will be equally as well looked after as the cities?”

DCC Kerr pointed to his experience of working with rural communities in Scotland. 

He said: “I am responsible for local policing across the whole of Scotland at the moment and as I’m sure most of you are aware, outside the central belt between Glasgow and Edinburgh, most of Scotland is rural and isolated. 

“It’s a third of the landmass of the United Kingdom and 60 per cent of the coastline. It’s got 90 inhabited islands and quite a few of those have very specific needs, which means that they need a very specific and a very sensitive policing response, which is locally-based, locally respected and recognised and locally present.”

Panel member and Labour councillor for St. Peter & the Waterfront in Plymouth, Chris Penberthy, asked about the rise in hate crime in Devon and Cornwall, in the forms of racism, homophobia and misogyny.  

“Hate crime continues to rise, especially hate crime that is sex or gender-related and that is worrying,” said Cllr Penberthy.

“I just wondered whether you had any thoughts specifically about policing within those protected characteristic communities and your approaches there.”

DCC Kerr insisted he would address the concerns of all communities and explained: “The job of policing is to continue to build trust and confidence in those communities and lifestyle communities who perhaps haven’t had as much trust in the police service in the past to make sure that we continue to get a more realistic reflection of where [hate crime] is happening, both physically within communities and on the streets and increasingly online, which is where the biggest growth of hate crime tends to be.”

Labour councillor for St Thomas in Exeter, Laura Wright, spoke about initiatives with the University of Exeter to help young women feel secure and suggested many women do not feel confident approaching police.

She hinted at the Met’s handling of the case of Sarah Everard’s – who was killed by serving officer Wayne Couzens – and later the conviction of two of his colleagues over racist, misogynist, sexist, homophobic and Islamophobic messages shared in a WhatsApp group with Couzens. 

“What’s your take on making sure that the public have every confidence in our police force here?” asked Cllr Wright. 

DCC Kerr said it was crucially important to restore trust. 

He said: “If women and girls didn’t feel confident in the presence of, or in engaging with, police officers on the street, then our responsibility was to do something about that, not to tell people to wave a bus down, not to tell people to do something that was impractical or give a sense that the victim or somebody who’s scared and on the street might be in some way responsible for what has happened.”

A question was also asked about political impartiality.  East Devon council leader Paul Arnott (Democratic Alliance Group, Coly Valley) highlighted the chief constable’s appointment by Tory commissioner Alison Hernandez and said: “What will you do if you find you have to conduct an investigation in which actions of that political party in Devon and Cornwall come into question?”

DCC Kerr offered reassurance and said he would remain completely independent of political groups: “Please don’t labour under any worry or misapprehension that after 33 years in policing and having worked for 26, 27 years in Belfast, I absolutely understand what the boundary lines are. 

“I will not hesitate to take whatever action the policing needs to take to protect the integrity of the rule of law.”

After his appointment to the role DCC Kerr said: “I am delighted to have been appointed by the police and crime commissioner as chief constable of Devon and Cornwall Police.  

“This is a force with an impressive and proud heritage, and a policing style rightly grounded in neighbourhood policing and on local community needs.  

“I have already been impressed by the excellent work that goes on every day and I look forward to meeting the diverse communities living in this fantastic part of the country. It will be a privilege to serve as your chief constable, and I’m very much looking forward to starting in this role.”

DCC Kerr spent over 27 years in the Police Service of Northern Ireland and joined the National Crime Agency (NCA) on secondment in 2017. He was awarded an OBE in 2015 and joined Police Scotland in 2018.

He is a member of the Justice Board for Scotland, a member of the Sentencing Council for Scotland (a Ministerial appointment) and was elected as the UK’s delegate to Interpol’s executive committee.

A new map shows how key landmarks on the Devon coast face being swamped by tidal surges due to rising sea levels caused by global warming. Scientists say the rate of rise is increasing, with levels forecast to be around 35cm higher by 2050 and 1m by the end of the century.

Edward Oldfield www.devonlive.com

An interactive online map produced by Climate Central shows the land at risk from storm surges without sea defences. In south Devon, the modelling for a 1m rise shows parts of Paignton seafront under water, along with land alongside the River Exe Estuary including most of the sand bar at Dawlish Warren. In North Devon, the waters would cover low-lying land on the estuaries of the Taw and Torridge rivers, including parts of Braunton Burrows and Westward Ho! Beach.

Sea levels have risen by around 16.5cm (6.5ins) since 1900, but the Met Office says the rate of rise is increasing and now stands at between 3mm and 5.2mm a year – more than double the rate in the early part of last century. This is exposing more parts of the coast to powerful storm surges and winds, damaging the environment and homes.

Scientists say average global temperatures are rising due to the effect of man-made greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide emitted by burning fossil fuels. That is causing the water in the seas to expand and polar ice to melt, increasing the volume of the seas. The temperature rise is said to be contributing to more extreme weather, with heavier rain and fiercer storms, causing an increased risk of river flooding and land being inundated.

In March 2018, low-lying land on the seafront at Paignton was flooded by a storm surge and the main A379 was partly washed away at Slapton in the South Hams. In 2014, there was a major breach of the railway line at Dawlish in 2014 when part of the Victorian sea wall was washed away.

Map showing the effect of a 1m rise in the sea level in North Devon (Image: Climate Central)

Around 500,000 homes around the UK will be at risk from flooding, scientists say. An estimate of nearly 200,000 homes and businesses at risk of abandonment around the coast has been made by researchers at the Tyndall Centre, in the University of East Anglia, in data published in June.

The government is funding a series of schemes across Devon as part of a new £5.2billion six-year programme of investment in flood and coastal defences announced in July to protect the most at-risk properties, doubling the amount spent in the previous six years.

Map showing the effect of a 1m rise in the sea level at Paignton (Image: Climate Central)

Plans are being prepared for a new 1m high flood wall to run the length of the seafront at Paignton. Without the scheme, more than 350 homes would be at risk from flooding, with sea water forecast to sweep in through the town centre and across the railway line as far as Hyde Road.

At Exmouth, a £12m scheme has improved defences on the Exe estuary and seafront against tidal flooding, to protect more than 1,400 homes and 400 businesses. In Exeter, a £32m scheme to improve defences alongside the Exe protects more than 3,000 homes and businesses.

In East Devon, a £15m scheme is being carried out to restore the flood plain of the River Otter, allowing reclaimed land to be flooded rather than try to hold back rising sea levels.

Map showing the effect of a 1m rise in the sea level at Dawlish Warren (Image: Climate Central)

The government has set out a strategy to reach Net Zero by 2050 – the point when the output of greenhouse gases responsible for global warming like carbon dioxide is reduced and equals the measures to take them out of the atmosphere.

Low-lying areas of the Devon coast are particularly at risk from tidal flooding, and an increase in storms from climate change could also speed up erosion. Changing weather patterns are seeing more rainfall, which increases the flood risk from rivers.

This summer the UK has recorded its highest ever temperature after the Met Office issued a red warning for heat and thermometers topped 40C in Lincolnshire.

No this Conservative MP is not Simon Jupp (he’s focussed on the hospitality sector). – Owl

Lewis Clarke www.devonlive.com 

Calls have been made for the reintroduction of the Coastal Communities Fund. During a debate on Coastal Communities on September 8, Selaine Saxby MP called for the reinstatement of the dedicated Coastal Communities Fund and in the Minister’s response, referring to the ‘alphabet soup’ of funding streams and the fact the Coastal Communities Fund has now closed she stated:

Minister, Lia Nici, said: “With regard to other funding streams and the success of the Coastal Communities Fund, it is right that we now focus our regeneration efforts around coastal communities through our larger and more expansive programmes as part of a more joined-up approach to levelling up. As we have heard from many Members today, the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities is not the only Department touched by coastal communities.

“There are also the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport—the list goes on—but I will go back into the Department and make sure that we are talking across all Departments to ensure that we get those benefits that Members are looking for.”

The Coastal Community Fund has helped support both the Ilfracombe Water Sports Centre and the North Devon Leisure Centre.

The debate gave MPs opportunities to emphsise the importance of coastal communities and how they need bespoke support.

Sally Ann Hart MP for Hastings and Rye and chair of the All Party Parliamentary Group for Coastal Communities said: “Coastal communities are integral to the UK’s environmental, social and economic wellbeing. The covid-19 pandemic profoundly impacted on our coastal communities, exposing and exacerbating long-standing social and economic structural challenges, which need an urgent and co-ordinated response for there to be a sustainable recovery.

“Coastal communities are also the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with erosion and flooding posing an ever greater threat to both the built and natural environments.”

Selaine Saxby MP said: “Full-time workers in North Devon currently earn £13.29 per hour, while the south-west average is £14.67 and the Great Britain average is £15.65. Our property prices have shot up by over 22%. We are the second fastest growing property price area in the country, but our house building rate has not grown that much and the vast majority of what is being sold is going in the form of second homes or holiday lets.

“If this continues, we will no longer have coastal communities; we will have winter ghost towns. We need urgent intervention through the Levelling-Up White Paper to tackle the issue.

“Our beautiful area has seen a surge in short-term holiday lets and the second homes market. I very much hope that recommendations of the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport consultation on holiday lets registration goes ahead. I also hope that there are opportunities in the Minister’s Department to impose planning restrictions to reduce the number of holiday lets that come to market. When new properties are built, a change of use should be required if they are to become a short-term holiday let. Communities such as mine need homes for people to live and work in. We love our tourists and we would never want to stop them coming, but our housing market has got completely out of balance.”

The Liberal Democrats are calling on Conservative MPs in Devon to back their legislation to offer immediate help to local families and businesses with the cost of living crisis.

Lewis Clarke www.devonlive.com

Liberal Democrat MP for Tiverton & Honiton, Richard Foord, has called on the newly elected Conservative Leader Liz Truss to immediately freeze energy bills, to protect local families and businesses from soaring prices.

It comes as the Liberal Democrats have tabled legislation in Parliament this month, signed by Foord, to cancel October’s energy bill rise – saving the average household around £1,500 this year.

The draft Bill would also offer grants to small businesses of up to £50,000 to cover 80 per cent of their energy bills, saving pubs, restaurants and high street shops from closing their doors this winter.

The Liberal Democrats are calling on Conservative MPs in Devon to back their legislation to offer immediate help to local families and businesses with the cost of living crisis.

Liberal Democrat MP for Tiverton & Honiton Richard Foord said: “Liz Truss and the Conservatives have spent months failing to act on soaring energy bills, leaving local residents in despair and small businesses going to the wall.

“They have shown they are completely out of touch with people in the West Country who are struggling to get by.

“It is time that Conservative MPs across Devon finally listened to Liberal Democrat calls to freeze energy bills to save families and pensioners from an economic catastrophe this winter. We have tabled legislation to freeze energy bills, which could be brought in on day one to offer the help that local families and businesses need.

“Liz Truss’ premiership represents more of the same failed Conservative party policies as Boris Johnson, which have led to a cost of living crisis, leaving families and pensioners at breaking point. It’s clear that the country is in dire need of a change.”

Letters www.theguardian.com

First it was the food banks that stepped in to fill a gap left by the retreating state, as successive Tory governments denied responsibility for the increase in their use.

Now it seems pollution monitoring of English rivers is also to be taken over by volunteers, because after years of severe cuts in the funding and staffing of the Environment Agency, it is no longer able to fulfil its statutory obligations by regularly monitoring all our rivers (Citizen scientists to monitor English rivers in £7m scheme, 14 September).

The Rivers Trust hopes that its £7m “citizen scientist” programme to standardise regular testing in 10 river catchment areas will lead to thousands of volunteers undertaking monitoring that the EA is unable to carry out itself.

Although all this new, regular monitoring sounds good, the volunteers will not be able to take action in response to incidents of pollution. They will need to report them to the EA, and I can find nothing to suggest that it is capable of properly processing and acting on all the pollution reports that will be coming its way. As the Guardian reported in January, the EA has already told staff to ignore reports of “low-impact” pollution events because it does not have enough money to investigate them.

The cynical among us might conclude that cutting back EA funding and letting volunteers step in is just another underhand way of our government implementing David Cameron’s “big society” through the back door.

Gary Bennett

Exeter

Citizen science is no substitute for a properly funded Environment Agency with teeth, and stronger laws. The classic case in point must be the formerly glorious River Wye, which I visited as a boy. Then it was still the sight that had inspired poets and artists; now, thanks to lax or unenforced planning laws, it is virtually dead, poisoned by the droppings of millions of intensively reared chickens.

No number of citizen scientists will improve this situation; we must either stop eating chicken or ban such factories in environmentally sensitive locations – or at the very least make the polluters pay for cleaning up their mess and ensuring waste no longer gets into the water table.

Anthony Davies

Bude, Cornwall

The provision of affordable housing as part of wider construction projects could be ditched under plans being considered by ministers to deregulate the planning system in about a dozen “investment zones”.

Developers will be delighted. – Owl

Aubrey Allegretti www.theguardian.com 

Sources said the controversial move was being contemplated ahead of a mini-budget by the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, on Friday outlining the government’s growth strategy and promised tax cuts.

Swathes of environmental and planning regulations are expected to be ditched to “drive growth and speed up development” in the first batch of roughly 12 investment zones.

The zones are modelled on freeports, and are meant to encourage more business investment by granting firms tax relief and cutting red tape.

The prime minister, Liz Truss, mooted the idea during her leadership campaign, saying it would help with her plans to “unleash investment and boost economic growth right across the country”.

Councils began expressing interest in applying to become investment zones this week and Kwarteng hopes to be able to point to the uptake as proof of the policy’s popularity in his speech to the House of Commons later this week, insiders said.

A letter from the levelling up department sent to local authorities and seen by the Guardian said that one of the main benefits of becoming an investment zone would be “designated planning sites to build for growth and housing”.

It added: “Where planning applications remain necessary, they will be radically streamlined. Planning sites may be co-located with, or separate to, tax sites, depending on what makes most sense for the local economy.”

While each deal will be bespoke, local authorities granted investment zone status may be able to let developers circumvent requirements for affordable housing to be built alongside any proposed new property, according to government sources.

And planning obligations like section 106 agreements, which require developers to mitigate pressure on the local area by building or paying for additional infrastructure projects in exchange for planning permission, could also be scaled back in the first batch of investment zones.

It is also believed that plans were drawn up for a ban on development in the green belt to include an exemption for investment zones. However, the idea was not taken forward.

Simon Clarke, the levelling up secretary, is said to be wary of the last Tory rebellion over planning reforms, which Boris Johnson’s government was eventually forced to abandon.

The levelling up department declined to comment on speculation about the upcoming fiscal event.

The government said those on default, deemed or variable tariffs will receive a per-unit discount on energy costs, up to a maximum of the difference between the supported price and the average expected wholesale price over the period of the scheme. The amount of this discount is likely to be about £405 a MWh for electricity and £115 a MWh for gas. Repeated by Rees-Mogg in interviews.

What’s all this nonsense about Megawatt hours?

Surely, with his convictions, he should have insisted on British thermal units!

To refresh his memory, a British thermal unit is the quantity of heat required to raise the temperature of one pound of liquid water by 1 degree Fahrenheit at the temperature that water has its greatest density (approximately 39 degrees Fahrenheit). 

[1 megawatt hour = 3,412,956.34070 British thermal units so had the discounts been announced as £ per Btu they would have looked rather small, vanishingly small.]

He must really try harder to be consistent. – Owl

Liz Truss’s government has been criticised for lining up tax cuts that will help big banks and insurers save more than £6bn over the next two years.

Kalyeena Makortoff www.theguardian.com 

The figures, compiled by the House of Commons Library, come as the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, prepares to freeze corporation tax as part of the government’s mini-budget on Friday.

That move alone, which will hold corporation tax at 19% rather than hiking it to 25% next year as originally planned, is expected to save City firms up to £4.5bn between 2023 and 2025.

It will deliver further savings for big banks, which are already expected to benefit from a cut in the banking surcharge from 8% to 3%, as announced last year by the then chancellor Rishi Sunak.

Together, the policies are expected to deliver tax cuts of £6.3bn over the next two years, the House of Commons analysis suggested.

It comes as Kwarteng plans to ditch EU rules that cap bankers’ bonuses at two times their salaries, in another attempt to woo City firms.

The figures will fuel further criticism of the government’s alleged promotion of trickle-down economics, in which tax cuts for the rich and businesses are believed to spur jobs creation and investment that benefits the wider population.

The Liberal Democrats, who commissioned the research, are now calling on the government to cancel the cuts and corporation tax freeze, and instead hand the money raised to households struggling to pay their energy bills.

“It is shameful that the Conservatives are choosing to cut taxes for the big banks, while leaving families and pensioners still struggling to pay their bills this winter,” said Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader.

While Truss’s government has also revealed plans to freeze energy prices for consumers, capping the cost for a typical household at £2,500, Davey noted that the figure is still more than double the level last year.

“Meanwhile, big banks will be celebrating a bumper payday under the Conservatives as families have to choose between going cold or hungry,” he said.

“It is time Liz Truss put the British people first by scrapping this bankers’ tax cut and helping hard-pressed families instead.”

A spokesperson for City lobby group UK Finance said: “The banking and finance sector is a major source of revenue for the government, delivering investment across the country and employing hundreds of thousands of people, the majority of which are outside of London.”

The Treasury was contacted for comment.

Another damning verdict from the Institute for Fiscal Studies  ifs.org.uk

Whatever happened to the party of “sound money”? – Owl

In the ‘mini-Budget’ on Friday 23 September, the government is expected to confirm substantial tax-cutting measures reflecting the new Prime Minister Liz Truss’s commitments during the leadership campaign. Despite this – and despite the fact that the outlook for the economy is now much weaker than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in March – this statement will not be accompanied by new official forecasts for the economy and the public finances. This is disappointing.

Key findings

(Full report can be found here)

1. The OBR last made a forecast of the public finances back in March. Since then, energy prices and inflation have risen well beyond what was expected, and growth forecasts have slumped. We are forecasting the public finances here based on Citi’s latest forecast for growth, inflation and interest rates. This implies a shorter and shallower recession than the Bank of England forecast in August, owing to the substantial support provided to household and business finances by the Energy Price Guarantee. In addition, the rise in the outlook for inflation since March cushions some of the hit to the cash size of the economy – which matters more than its real size for government receipts. Nevertheless, Citi forecasts that the cash economy will be 2% smaller in 2026–27 than the OBR forecast in March.

2. The fiscal cost of the Energy Price Guarantee is highly uncertain not least because the eventual cost will depend on the path of energy prices and, relatedly, whether the scheme is extended in some form. We assume the Energy Price Guarantee will cost well over £100 billion over the next two years, but that it will then be removed as per the government’s stated plan. It could be much more expensive and end up running for more than two years – or much cheaper than we assume.

3. The cost of reversing the recent rise in rates of National Insurance contributions, and cancelling next April’s planned large rise in the rate of corporation tax, is far more certain. Together Ms Truss’s tax commitments, if carried out in full, would lead to revenues being about £30 billion a year lower than they would otherwise have been. Since these are large and permanent measures, they also matter more for the long-run health of the public finances than the eventual cost of the Energy Price Guarantee.

4. Higher inflation will also push up spending on debt interest, state pensions and most working-age benefits. In contrast, spending on public services is set in cash terms, and therefore does not automatically adjust in the light of increased inflation. Previous IFS research has suggested that an additional £18 billion would need to be found in each of the next two years to restore public service spending plans to the real-terms generosity that was intended when the plans were set. In addition, Ms Truss has committed to increasing defence spending to 3% of national income by the end of the decade. Our forecasts do not include any top-up to public service spending plans that were set a year ago; hence there is considerable risk that borrowing will end up higher than our headline estimates suggest.

5. The combination of higher spending and substantial tax cuts leaves borrowing running at a much higher level than forecast in March. Importantly, even once the Energy Price Guarantee is assumed to have expired in October 2024, our forecast has borrowing running at about £100 billion a year, over £60 billion a year higher than forecast in March. Almost half of this increase in borrowing would be due to the new tax cuts. At around 3.5% of national income, borrowing would be not far off double the 1.9% of national income that it averaged over the 60 years prior to the global financial crisis, when growth prospects were considerably higher. With investment spending running at about 2½% of national income, this would leave a persistent forecast current budget deficit of around 1% of national income. Without new tax cuts, the current budget would have been forecast to remain in balance.

6. On our forecasts, debt would increase, not just while the Energy Price Guarantee was in place, but also thereafter. Persistent current budget deficits and rising debt as a share of national income means that two main fiscal targets legislated only in January would be missed and that debt would be left on an ever-increasing path. Allowing debt to rise temporarily to finance one-off packages of support, such as the Energy Price Guarantee or the furlough scheme, in exceptional circumstances is justifiable and can be sustainable, but the same case cannot be made for allowing debt to rise indefinitely in order to enjoy lower taxes now.

7. Finding a way to somehow boost the UK’s rate of economic growth would undoubtedly help. But we should not underestimate the scale of the challenge: an increase in annual growth of more than 0.7% of national income – the increase required just to stabilise debt as a share of GDP at the very end of our forecasts – would be equivalent to the difference between the growth the UK experienced between 1983 and 2008 and that experienced in the 2010s. There is no miracle cure, and setting plans underpinned by the idea that headline tax cuts will deliver a sustained boost to growth is a gamble, at best.

Verdict on this element of Trussonomics is delivered before the policy is formally announced! – Owl

The rumoured move comes as average UK house price leapt by 15.5% annually in July. 

Suruchi Sharma Diwan www.inyourarea.co.uk 

In an attempt to drive growth, Liz Truss is reportedly poised to slash stamp duty in her first mini-Budget this week. In an effort to kickstart economic growth, the government could axe plans to raise corporation tax, reverse the hike in national insurance and end a cap on bankers’ bonuses.

The economic blueprint, set to be unveiled by chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng on Friday this week, aims to stimulate further growth in the property market and help more people buy their first home. The Bank of England is expected to announce a rise in interest rates on Thursday as it battles to curb spiralling inflation.

Under the current rules, no stamp duty is paid on the first £125,000 of any property purchase, before rising to 2% between £125,001 and £250,000, 5% between £250,001 and £925,000, 10% between £925,001 and £1.5 million and 12% above £1.5 million. For first-time buyers, the threshold is higher at £300,000 – but only if the property costs less than £500,000. The stamp duty threshold was temporarily raised to £500,000 during the Covid pandemic to fire up the property market.

Whilst Downing Street declined to comment ahead of the fiscal event on Friday, industry reactions have started pouring in with critics warning that the rumoured move would make the housing crisis “even worse”.

“Doing more harm than good”

Sarah Coles, a senior personal finance analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, feels potential cuts to stamp duty may risk “doing more harm than good”. She said: “No buyer will ever complain about a tax cut, but if the Government was to cut stamp duty it would mean ignoring the fact that the real brake on the property market is a severe shortage of supply.

“Stimulating demand without addressing supply problems would risk more buyers chasing a tiny number of properties, which would push prices up. It’s what we saw during the coronavirus-inspired stamp duty holiday.”

“We need green homes, not another buying frenzy”

Gregory Dewerpe, founder and chief investment officer at A/O PropTech, Europe’s largest proptech VC fund, said: “It’s clear the government has learned little from the housing market feeding frenzy during the pandemic, where a cut in stamp duty did little other than put extreme upward pressure on prices.

“As winter approaches, the world is facing a climate crisis, energy prices are at eye-watering levels, and the UK has the oldest housing stock in Europe. We shouldn’t be making it easier to buy a house, instead, we should be making our houses greener. Government should prioritise energy efficiency rather than needlessly stimulate demand for an already tight housing supply.”

“No single magic bullet will improve the situation”

Richard Dana, founder and CEO of Tembo, the family mortgage broker, said: “I do not believe that there is one single magic bullet that will improve the situation for first-time buyers.

“We badly need innovation right across the board, from government initiatives to new offerings from specialist mortgage lenders. I fear that without this holistic approach, cutting stamp duty carries a risk that it will further drive-up house prices and put home ownership beyond the means of more people.”

“Affordability crisis of runaway house prices”

Andy Sommerville, director at property data and insight firm Search Acumen said: “We saw what the stamp duty holiday did to the market during the pandemic, and I have no doubt such a move will stimulate demand again. But, without supply-side reforms to boost housing stock, stimulating demand will mean more buyers bidding for the same number of properties, which can only mean one thing for house prices – affordability crisis of runaway house prices.

“Interest rates historically have averaged more than 4% and we’re expecting another rate rise from the Bank of England tomorrow, so buyers do need to be aware that savings they make today through SDLT may be cancelled out through elevated mortgage repayments in years to come due to elevated house prices and borrowing rate rises.”

“Two-thirds of stamp duty comes from London and the South East”

Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla said: “While we welcome any changes to reform stamp duty, a major move is needed from the Government to offset the impact of mortgage rates which will more than double this year and will impact market activity in London and the South East.

“Two-thirds of stamp duty comes from London and the South East where house prices are higher and the £500k+ stamp duty rates significantly add to the cost of moving. Changing stamp duty to boost market activity means stamp duty cuts will need to be targeted at homes priced at £500,000 and above – which currently account for 76% of stamp duty receipts.”

There are some, however, who are in support of the rumoured announcement saying, SDLT was an unnecessary tax anyway. The experts who support feel that stamp duty is a pretty bad tax – especially at high levels – that impedes mobility.

“Liz Truss must ensure they are targeted in the right way”

Jonathan Rolande, Spokesman National Association of Property Buyers said: “First-time buyers are always in need of a helping hand. Currently, they pay nothing up to a purchase price of £300,000. With huge inflation in the property market, this threshold is now looking on the low side.

“Increasing it to £350,000 would allow buyers to purchase at today’s prices without the burden of tax. A small adjustment such as this will not lead to a stampede and the consequent price rises seen thanks to previous cuts.”

From https://theriverstrust.org/sewage-map this looks to be the site of both the Exmouth treated sewage outlet into Lyme Bay and a sewer storm overflow.

In 2021, this sewer storm overflow spilled 49 times for a total of 628 hours, discharging into the Lyme Bay(c). – Owl

Anita Merritt www.devonlive.com

An unusual large structure has recently appeared in the sea by Devon Cliffs Holiday Park and will remain there for the next three weeks. The platform protruding out of the sea at Sandy Bay, believed to known as a Jack Up Barge, has been erected to enable South West Water to carry out ‘investigative work’ to upgrade the wastewater network in the area.

It is said to be part of a wider project to protect bathing water and the environment while reducing pollution. While the works are carried out people are still able to use the beach as normal.

This summer, some of Devon’s beaches have been closed for swimming following pollution concerns. In August and September, East Devon District Council issued a number of warning against visiting Exmouth beach due to pollution caused by heavy rain.

Such warnings have been issued multiple times since mid-August when the heat wave first gave way to heavy rain. Warnings have also been issued at Teignmouth Holcombe, Teignmouth Town, Sidmouth, Beer, and Wembury.

A spokesperson for South West Water said: “We are currently in the process of carrying out planned investigative work at Sandy Bay as part of a scheme to upgrade the wastewater network in the area. This initial work is expected to take around three weeks to complete and is part of a wider project to protect bathing water and the environment while reducing pollution.

“There should be no impact to customers as a result of this project and we will keep them fully updated on any further work.”

According to Exeter Port Authority, the Jack Up Barge ‘Mariner’ from Teignmouth moved to Sandy Bay last Saturday, September 17, during high water. It states the works will last approximately 20 days, ‘weather permitting’.