covid.joinzoe.com /post/incidence-update-sept-25

The R values for the UK are currently England 1.4, Scotland 1.3 and Wales 1.4.

The latest figures were based on the data from 6,847 swab tests done between 7 September to 20 September.

Prevalence figures

The latest prevalence figures estimate that 147,498 people currently have symptomatic COVID in the UK, this figure has more than doubled since last week (69,686), for the second week in a row. This figure does not include long term COVID sufferers. Worryingly, in the North West, numbers have tripled in the last seven days from 12,544 to 36,316 estimated cases. In the North East and Yorkshire numbers have more than doubled from 12,916 to 27,731. This doubling of cases is also seen in London where cases have gone from 9,291 to 18,200 a significant jump in numbers. A full regional breakdown can be found here.

COVID Symptom Study Watch List

The COVID Symptom Study app’s Watch List this week has been extended to include 25 regions of the UK. All 25 regions have seen a huge increase in the number of COVID cases, meaning that all areas are of concern with many like Manchester and Glasgow affecting 1 % of the population. As COVID-19 continues to spread widely across the UK the COVID Symptom Study app Watch List will become less relevant.

Tim Spector, Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College London, comments: 

“The number of cases in the UK continues to rise at an alarming rate as we are seeing figures doubling weekly across the country, in particular we are worried about places like London and other major cities like Manchester, Belfast and Glasgow where cases are surging and the R value is around 1.4.

The government has confirmed that our data from our loyal app users  is playing a critical role and currently providing the most up-to-date figures. This is down to the way our app works, as a survey with millions of data points, we are able to produce data approximately 3 days ahead of the ONS’s household survey. We also have a greater number of positive swab tests, 151 positive tests in two weeks, around three times more than the ONS survey.

Having more positive swab tests and millions of people logging in everyday builds a clearer picture of what is happening in the different regions. We need as many people as possible logging in  the app right now, the more we have the better our data will be. We are urging people who want to help us track the progress of this second wave to download the app and log for themselves and their families.”

Rishi Sunak’s Job Support Scheme took two minutes to unravel 

Tom Peck www.independent.co.uk 

As all five feet six of Rishi Sunak rose to his feet at the despatch box of the House of Commons, gaining no perceptible altitude as he did so, it was as fine a moment as any to take stock of how we got here.

The empty air weighed heavy upon him. The hazard tape still stuck down to the floor of the chamber a reminder that these remain very dangerous times.

Can it really be a mere six months ago, in this room, that he was delivering his first Budget? Back then, a government minister, Nadine Dorries, had tested positive for Covid-19 a matter of hours before. Makeshift police tape had been placed over the door to her office, but everyone just crammed in regardless.

Sunak announced, to genuine cheers, that he had allocated fully £12bn to sort out this coronavirus business. This has turned out not to be enough, by somewhere in the region of £379bn.

Perhaps, in hindsight, it might have been then that it should have become clear that the government didn’t really have a clue what it was doing. But then, it’s easy to say with hindsight. Of course, many people said as much with foresight as well, but let’s not get too bogged down in all that.

He wasn’t delivering a Budget today. That quite rightly had to be cancelled. A “Budget” is just not the right word for the days in which we now live. Budgeting involves setting a spending limit and sticking to it. Budget hotels and budget car rentals tend to imply value for money.

There’s nothing budget about Covid-19. Oh no. That’s why this had been called merely a Winter Economic Plan, and it served to remind that, oh yes, winter is coming.

The furlough scheme, coming in at £4bn a month for the last seven months, was coming to an end, to be replaced by the Job Support Scheme. This was radical, in that it would involve actual employers paying their own staff to do actual work, rather than the government. Well, it would in theory.

For those of us whose job it is to attempt to find humour in chafingly dry fiscal statements like this, the smart move for some years now has been not to worry too much about the speech itself, but just wait for the aftermath. For most of the last 10 years, it has been possible to time, almost in seconds, how long it takes for a Budget to unravel, once the economists and the financial analysts get hold of it, clear out the smoke and shatter the mirrors.

The Job Support Scheme took about two minutes to collapse as a viable proposal. Its central premise is that companies can pay their staff a third of their wages to work a third of their hours, and then the remaining two-thirds, or 66 per cent of the cash, will be borne in equal 22 per cent chunks by the employee, who’ll simply lose it, the employer and the government.

It means that companies will be required to pay staff 55 per cent of their wages to do 33 per cent of their work. Alternatively, they can sack them, and hire somebody else on a part-time basis. It is hard to see this not happening. It is even harder to see how a waiter, a DJ, an airline pilot, a shop worker or anyone involved in, say, the events industry, can even hope to do 33 per cent of their job, when a pandemic has made it close to impossible to provide their services to customers who don’t want them anyway.

It was, however, good while it lasted. Some months ago, one of Sunak’s predecessors, George Osborne, pointed out that a popular chancellor is a chancellor who’s not doing his job properly.

If the halo slips on Sunak, it will also mark the daylight being let in on the magic. The magic money tree, to be precise, which has a decidedly autumnal look about it, and we all know what comes next.

Compared with other town councils, Honiton Town Council sees a lot of action. Not so much the positive action many would like to see; but more legal action and active disputes, which show little sign of resolve.

Hannah Corfield honiton.nub.news

At just seven members strong, out of a possible 18, with one member unable to participate due to ill health; one might call into question the decision making capabilities of the six remaining councillors.

Another cause for concern is the fact that nine councillors, who appeared to have Honiton’s best interests at heart, were seemingly forced from their positions citing various problems with the current incumbents at HTC.

Added to that, at least two members of staff have been signed off sick amid allegations of bullying in the workplace.

It does not paint a pretty picture, by anyone’s standards. Especially given that we are experiencing the worst crisis in living memory. Strong, proactive, united communities are what will carry us through adversity; is that what Honiton Town Council currently stands for?

Former town councillor, Duncan Sheridan-Shaw commented: “When I first joined Honiton Town Council it was always my intention to understand what the community wanted and needed.

“I feel that if you choose to become a public servant you should choose a life of service – feet to the floor, digging in and sweeping up.

“Honiton Town Council does not currently fulfil this ideal, a professional and proactive organisation should become involved at a grassroots level and get their hands dirty, both metaphorically and physically.

“We do not see a council that is out and about, we do not see a council that holds open meetings just for the sake of doing it, we do not see a council giving up time to sweep up or clean down.

“I feel a productive council should be made of representation FROM community groups and not become representatives TO community groups.

“Our council do not host gala evenings or fund raising events; our council do not join in on fun runs; our council do not hold up the standards of Brand Ambassadors for our community – and for this I am abundantly embarrassed of our town council.”

In response, Mayor John Zarczynski said: “There are a small group of people making false accusations and sharing misinformation on social media.

“An independent investigation is currently underway into complaints made against HTC and I look forward to publishing the results, as this will vindicate the council.

“The councillors who have resigned, making various allegations that are totally untrue, should have stayed on to fight their corner, as they will now cost tax payers £10,000 in by-elections.

“HTC are working on many projects for the community; such as a Neighbourhood Plan, drainage on the High Street, allotments, reopening the market and the proposed Town Park.”

Extracts from the second half – so juicy readers are advised to take a shower to cleanse themselves after reading.

We are indebted to Owl’s correspondent for summoning up the stamina for tackling the second half so soon after the first, in the public interest naturally – read on:

Swire Diaries episode 2 – Lowlights 50-100%

Numbers relate to location in Kindle book

2018 continued

4531 – Constituent asks for steel street furniture to avoid a terrorist attack on Sidmouth prom – says hundreds could be killed as they are too arthritic to do a quick dive into the sea.  Sue [H’s secretary] and I have a laugh – as if ISIS is going to attack East Devon for God’s sake.  The only real threat of an incident happening there is with a trembling pair of hands of the gears of an out-of control mobility scooter [Remember that a young man, under terrorist influence, did plant a bomb at a restaurant in Exeter and it was only luck that meant it did not go off].

4591-  Jacob Rees Mogg “speaks like a plum orchard”.

4729 – West Hill Harvest supper.  People friendly.  H makes a long speech Colonel Peter Morrison very pro-Trump.  Fed up with local anti-Tory press, H asked how many of the 100 or so people have written to the press – 2 hands go up.

4779 – Commons sex scandal “Hugo assures me that he has not partaken in groping himself [!].  Time will tell.  He is at that age where he needs more of it and is getting less.

4791 – SS sets up anon Twitter account@torympwife.  H “understandably nervous”.

4828 – Megan Markle “a mixed-race American divorcee”.

4927 – The Dorchester all-male ball, where waitresses are told to wear skimpy clothes and made to sign non-disclosure agreements. H says he “can’t see what’s wrong with men flinging themselves a scantily-clad young girls (sic) – how else are they  expected to score and keep the human race from going extinct?

5047 – “Rather unimpressive Police and Crime Commissioner for Devon Alison Hernandez gave a radio interview telling people to write to Hugo re parking on pavements.  He tells her that (a) you are the PCC (b) this is a matter for the local authority and (c) not a matter for MPs and is not a good use of their time – his PA amends it before it goes out and she does with many of his letters.

5063 – West Hill branch AGM and dinner.  Usual stuff.  When H thinks he may be dangerously right-wing, “attending the West Hill AGM always cures him of such concerns”.

At the meeting a man asks a question and H replies in his “most oleaginous Sergeant Wilson manner …”

5976 – Budleigh Salterton AGM.  No more than 20 in the hall.  Jeremy asks for apologies, Jill Elson says my sister as she is stuck in Tesco’s.

5096 – H trying to get back to mid-Devon in snow.  Gets to Exeter, plans to walk to home.  SS says it “illustrates how thick he can be .  He is the type of person the emergency services want to kill rather than pick up”.  [a volunteer driver of a 4-wheel drive vehicle picks him and others up and takes them home – driver not impressed that he is an MP].

5107 – H agrees to host 3 lunches a year for “moribund association”.  Amber Rudd [Home Sec at the time] agrees to attend but cries off and so he gets Arlene Foster (DUP).  Tom Wright, a councillor from Budleigh Salterton was accompanying Alison Hernandez and furious it wasn’t going to be Rudd  “It was to be his moment in the sun” and threatens not to attend.  Turns out he thought it was Arlene Phillips of “Strictly Come Dancing” who was expected.

5129 – Much bickering about whether to buy a photocopier locally or online.  Treasurer behaving like Scrooge.  Jill Elson (for local) said she had a friend called Reg who can fix anything in his shed.  H finally bought it and donated the money for it.  “It’s like a war zone in East Devon” says SS.

5147 – H appointed a Commons fire warden.  What if I am not in my office?  “Since he hates his office and is never in it, I doubt his skills will ever be tested.

5239 – [Amber Rudd – currently one of SS’s best friends – although this changes – “misleads Parliament].  SS and HS put out a tweet: “Home office is and always has been a dysfunctional department filled with large numbers of left-leaning anti-Tory civil servants, who are prone to leaning … The Twittersphere goes bananas, particularly the civil service union representatives and Claire Wrong’s cronies, of course”.

[A Rudd resigns]

5269 – SS describes in detail and gynae problem that takes her to hospital.

5313 – “None of H’s deals are coming to fruition – he says he feels that he is ‘just a bed-blocker’ in the Commons”.

5434 – “He feels trapped by the institution that he now loathes and wants to get a Harley-Davidson, get stoned, have an affair and … horrify his constituents”.

5453 – [This entry really needs putting out in full as SS describes in horrifying detail how her husband tries to sabotage Claire Wright]  H has been trying to work out what would really piss off Miss Wrong.  I know, he says, let’s save Ottery St Mary Hospital.  Ottery St Mary is Wrong’s territory – we can’t do anything to Wright there, she has the whole place sewn up. [long rant] … I’m not saying she doesn’t have a point, but she has been telling them the hospital is going for nigh on 10 years.

H invites Matt “Hand on Cock” [her words] to visit, tips off ITV but not CW but ITV tells CW and she rallies her troops.

CW goes into full battle mode with her supporters … eventually Matt has to dive into his car.  Claire is outraged and rushes up to H “Did he give any guarantees Mr Swire” she says.  Sasha is incandescent with rage that she doesn’t call him Sir Hugo and thinks it all went swimmingly until they view the media coverage, very positive to CW so they complain to ITV.  “Are we ever going to be rid of this woman”.

5564 – H calls the East Devon Conservative Association to discuss Brexit.  About 8 turn up.  “Let everyone have their say” says Jill Elson, which always refers back to the fact that she was once, aeons ago, made redundant by Clark’s Shoes in Seaton and blames this on the ERM, John Major, Maastricht, the weather …”  Lovely Lynn, her sister, says “ordinary people at the pub etc.are complaining about the cuts.”  Jill Elson threatens to resign and hisses and fumes at Jacob Reees-Mogg … in the absence of Christine Channon (who has it in for Hugo at the moment) Jeff Tait (Mayor of Exmouth) reads his contribution out slowly.  They then competed about who was saying what about at the pub, no-one any the wiser.  H has come to the conclusion that either they are all mad or he is, and he thinks on balance it is probably him.

Gove and H meet and speculate what might have happened if H had married Jerry Hall [who he dated for a very short time and SS says it was just to make Mick Jagger mad] and they talk about having her over a barrel.

5707 – “H is becoming like Victor Meldrew”

2019

5842 – H has been putting lens cleaner in his mouth and air freshener on his spectacles.

5874 – H speculates why his chickens are not laying.  A [real country person) says it is because only one cock should be with them and there are 3.  H cannot bring himself to wring the cocks’ necks so decides to shoot them.  He misses one and gets a chicken.  “He then goes all Rambo and uses so much lead [to kill the birds] they are inedible.

5913 – Another West Hill AGM [it seems these are popular as this branch produces most money for the coffers] in their “Fuhrerbunker” (the village hall)  Colonel Morrison features again … “Watching them  vote is excruciating – some unable to lift hands, others shaking one using one arm to raise the other – a portrait of our current membership”.

6141 – Phone call with our builder/shooter friend who tells H to do something about not being allowed to kill pests on his land.  “The green blob, led by Chris Packham have finally infiltrated DEFRA”.

6191 – 3 May election – “worst news – Indies have taken control of East Devon.  Claire Wrong is crowing from the rooftops because they are all “her people” – by that I mean of her left-wing persuasion.

6471 – Raab C Brexit (Dominic Raab) made Foreign Secretary and Deputy PM.  H really did help to put him on the map …Matt Hand on Cock still there, probably warming the PM’s loo seat).

6481 – “We all know Cummings is stark raving mad …”

6495 – Dinner at No 10, SS shouted at HS not to drink or use salt on account of his blood pressure which “for the last 2 days has been telling us he is headed for the exit …”

6502 – August 2019 – “Liam Fox is writing a book on pandemics …”.  H tells BJ that he is off at the next election.  BJ knocks back the plonk at an alarming rate.

6562 – Why did Boris and Carrie get a puppy when they have Hancock?

6633 – 12 September – H announces to Association Executive he’s off.  H says not a single person thanked him for his 20 year service.

6641 – C Wrong can’t believe her luck – SS thinks CW should have been nicer to Hugo about his leaving.  SS says:  “I feel elated that we don’t have anything to do with that cow again.  [Anyone notice a contradiction here with the entry above?]

6697 – “Everyone knows Boris is a sex addict …”

6735 – “Boris treads over the dead bodies of Extinction Rebellion protesters”.

6755 – H has 2 accidents with his new tractor.  “It doesn’t occur to him that it would be highly inconvenient for me to become a widow quite yet. Particularly as the life insurance I took out on him is about to run out.

6931 – Association have selected Simon Jupp.  Jupp – Raab C. Brexit’s media spad – is virtually being given the seat without much of a competition.

6938 – “Jupp comes from a much more humble background …”

6940 – in the past if you had brown sauce with your sausages, you voted Labour; if you holidayed in Tuscany you were New Labour or Conservative, but Brexit has smashed all those certainties.

6944 – H has conversation with John Humphries … H bursts into tears… because he said thank you and H is proud to have made [John and David’s wedding] happen.

6951 – H out doing last Remembrance Sunday [he is no longer an MP at this point just before the election] but it “gives him a chance to wear his KCMG”.

6976 – … we have decided not to go canvassing unless asked by the new candidate.

7022 – “H goes out canvassing in Budleigh Salterton for Jumping Jupp Flash, who tells H that he is having a torrid time with Claire Wrong’s followers.  All his posters are being ripped up and the abuse on his social media has been so bad he has had to shut his Facebook page down”/

… She goes around saying that she is fighting a clean campaign.  Maybe, but not all her supporters are.

7042 – “H flies back from Hong Kong.  He has become a non-executive for a large conglomerate that builds and places large storage facilities around Asia.

7050 – 10 December.  Remainer maniac menace Hugh Grant turns up in East Devon … surrounded by lefties from Claire Wright’s cult [another long rant from Sasha follows – saying he once nuzzled her and told her her perfume was wonderful].

7073 – OMG she’s going to get it … ? because H didn’t pass on his lucky rosette to Jupp (H searches for it).  He is convinced Jupp will lose.

13/12 – 80 Seat victory – amount of publicity CW received was unprecedented.

7132 “Jupp done it, babe”.

“A few days ago we got Twitter private messages from Rylance (Lib Dem) and Wilson (Labour) who admitted they’d rather we won due to her level of abuse and the trolling they had been getting from her supporters.

7139 – “I weirdly feel some sympathy for her … her vanity superseded a rational take on facts.

[Go now and cleanse yourselves with a hot shower] …..

Huge plumes of red dust have loomed over Sidmouth today [Thursday – Owl] following two cliff falls in the space of 30 minutes.

[See devonlive for photos and video]

Chloe Parkman www.devonlive.com 

Jenny Pleasants, who captured the natural phenomenon on camera, was stood along the seafront when she noticed the huge dust cloud coming from Jacobs Ladder.

One eye-witness said: ”[There has] been two in half an hour now.”

This appears to be the first significant cliff fall in just over a month after a local resident captured an enormous landslide in the town back in August.

Devon Live has reported on numerous cliff falls within the town over the last few months.

In May, the area saw five separate cliff falls of note, with three taking place within 24-hours.

A spokesperson for East Devon District Council (EDDC) said: ““Cliff falls are a natural and unpredictable occurrence along the East Devon coast, this is because the rock from which the cliffs are formed is soft and therefore prone to rock falls and landslides, which can happen at any time, although periods of heavy rainfall such as the wettest February on record and now a long dry period, can cause an increase rate of falls.

“The Sidmouth and East Beach Management Plan (BMP) scheme aims to reduce the risk of flooding to Sidmouth by maintaining the standard of defences along Sidmouth Beach, and to reduce the rate of erosion to the cliffs to the East of the town (and therefore the rate of exposure of the East side of Sidmouth to coastal conditions).”

Ian Barlow said: “For now the simple message is unchanged from previous years keep off east beach it is dangerous.

“We are lucky to have miles of beaches around with the best water quality available for people to enjoy the seaside safely even with social distancing!”

Another of “three homes” Jenrick’s achievements – Owl

Ministers ignored the advice of civil servants before ploughing millions into marginal constituencies, a cross-party group of MPs has been told.

George Grylls, Esther Webber www.thetimes.co.uk 

Last September, weeks before the general election, Robert Jenrick, the communities secretary, announced that he would award £25 million each to deprived areas under a regeneration scheme called the Towns Fund.

Mr Jenrick and Jake Berry, a junior housing minister, chose 61 of the 101 towns. Analysis by The Times found that 60 of the areas they selected were in Conservative-held seats or Tory targets. The average majority in those towns was just 3,000. Mr Jenrick also chose his own seat of Newark — one of only two with a majority of more than 10,000 to receive funding.

The government initially refused to publish details of the selection criteria, but was overruled by the National Audit Office (NAO), leading to accusations by the public accounts committee that the government had used “flimsy, cherry-picked evidence” to choose the towns.

Appearing before the committee, Jeremy Pocklington, permanent secretary at the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG), said that ministers were given an analysis of the relative deprivation of towns, but had chosen “to apply their own qualitative assessment”. He insisted that the government had adopted a “robust, evidence-based approach” in distributing the total sum of £3.6 billion.

Stephen Jones, director of the Cities and Local Growth Unit, told MPs that ministers were advised to consult with mayors during the selection process, but decided not to, saying that they “wanted to do that themselves”. A source close to the process rejected that assessment, saying that ministers had not refused to consult with mayors, but had simply never replied to the suggestion.

Meg Hillier, the Labour chairwoman of the public accounts committee, said the decision not to consult mayors was “very short-sighted”, adding that there were questions about the funding criteria that “still need answering”.

During the campaign, Mr Jenrick promoted the Towns Fund when visiting marginals including Broxtowe, Ipswich and Penistone & Stocksbridge.

The day before the vote, appearing alongside Darren Henry, now the MP for Broxtowe, in Stapleford — a town deemed low priority by civil servants — Mr Jenrick said that the government would “only” commit £25 million to the area if there was a “Conservative majority government” and Mr Henry was “elected to parliament tomorrow”.

A recent National Audit Office report found that ministers had selected all 40 towns deemed a “high priority” on a range of deprivation measures, but that they had also given money to 12 low-priority towns for which the rationale was “varied”.

An MHCLG spokesman said: “The report showed that the more affluent towns were ruled out, and the 40 most deprived towns were rightly favoured, with the remainder selected from a shortlist that considered a wide range of evidence.”

More people in Devon and Cornwall flouted coronavirus lockdown regulations more than any other part of the UK, research has revealed.

George Thorpe www.devonlive.com

Freedom of Information requests submitted by The University of Law (ULaw) show that between March 23 and June 30, there were 956 cases of rules being broken across the two counties, equating to 21% of the 4,490 offences dealt with by the authorities.

It puts the area at the top of the list for UK by some distance with Derbyshire second on 570 and Leicestershire third with 479.

Northamptonshire and the West Midlands complete the top five with 436 and 376 offences respectively.

Speaking about the research’s findings, Jennifer Schmidt-Petersen, programme and student lead for policing programmes at ULaw, said: “In September, we’ve seen many people return to work and children return to school with a heightened appreciation for our emergency services.

“While public authorities were already under immense pressure during lockdown earlier in the year, it is shocking to see this research highlighting the huge number of those defying lockdown rules set by the Government, which were there to protect us.

“During this same timeframe, public authorities around the UK also dealt with a total of 68,747 general crimes, further putting pressure on their resources.

“Lockdown was hard for many people and the laws were put in place in order to slow the spread of the virus, as is shown with Leicestershire, not abiding by these lockdown rules may result in us being placed under tighter restrictions once again right across the UK.

“Getting caught in breach of the lockdown restrictions can put you at risk of ending up with a criminal record, which will have a serious long-term impact on your life.

“With new restrictions now coming into play, we’d encourage the public to take note and make sure they are fully informed when it comes to the powers of the police and their local authorities.”

From today (September 24), new COVID-19 restrictions introduced by the Government will require hospitality and entertainment establishment such as pubs, restaurants and bowling alleys to close at 10pm and not reopen until 5am.

Pubs, bars and restaurants must also offer table service only.

People are also being encouraged to work from home if possible while a maximum of 15 people will be allowed to attend wedding ceremonies and receptions from Monday.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has also unveiled a series of financial measures aimed at helping the country’s economy including VAT cuts and wage subsidies.

“there is even a website (East Devon Watch)  which perpetuates a new type of politics – one that encourages paranoia and hate.  We need to expel this extremism …!”

(The Toilet Seats are identified in this half)

Lowlights of Sasha Swire Diaries – first 50%

One of Owl’s correspondents kindly offered to undertake the onerous task of reading the “salacious” diaries.

Here is a summary of the lowlights of the first half of the book.

(Owl’s correspondent now deserves to lie down in a darkened room for a while).

Year 2010

Kindle version – numbers relate to Kindle location

92: Men + power = whores

110 Hugo liked being called Minister very much and kept asking S to say “Yes Minister

126 – loved having two bodyguards

232 – when he asks her to do something she doesn’t want to do, he says he should because she is his wife.  She retorts that the taxpayers pay her and he can see her contract if he wishes

257 – people ignore her because she is just an MPs wife – but she “carries revenge in her heart forever”

294 – her mother-in-law, the Dowager Marchioness Townsend informs her mother that she will be accompanied by her butler on a visit.

(Various) many bigwigs entertained at the rented home in Sidbury including PM, Gove, Osborne, etc where they often seem to get very drunk (472)

546 – He spends 3 days a week in Northern Ireland.

658 – the Queen ignores her, S thinks she is seen as “small and irrelevant.

745 – Hugo buys a Jeep Cherokee “for image reasons”.

783 – he and Cameron and Osborne stay up to watch Keira Knightley’s nipples in a film

816: Forestry Commission – biggest despoilers of land.

899 – finds out a “smelly Libdem” has stayed in their Government-owned and allocated flat in Northern Ireland.

1049 – the testicle-grabbing incident (grabbed by Sasha).

“324 – H’s new job in FO described as “running the world”.

1879 – West Hill Conservatives AGM – members complain it is like Hugo “has disappeared off the planet” as “not seen all year.  Average age: 70s, they by and large “hate foreigners, Europe, defence cuts, gay marriage, Liberals, BBC, Germans, Japanese and garlic”.  “H has fallen out of love with these people.

1969 – East Devon Scouts Day – the toilet seats are Anne and Graham Liverton because they are always “up and down at town (sic) council meetings”. [Owl flushes out a relevant local news story “Councillor quits over humiliation of wife”]

1991 – Graham Liverton “a symphony in green … think John Inman in “Are You Being Served”.

2129 – it’s 2014 and H wants to go – sounds out a headhunter about other jobs.

2460 – Claire Wright causing no end of trouble, quite a good operator, attacks Hugo personally, infuriates Sasha.

2500 – First pre-election hustings – H says hello to everyone except Ms Wright.

2522 – the notorious “benefits auction” where H makes joke about those on benefits not being able to buy his honey, a jar of which sells for £15,000.

2532 – Claire Wright exploits it “like a rat up a drainpipe”

2572 – Hustings in East Devon “quite tiresome” H tries not to be riled by Claire Wright.

2015

2572 – Claire Wright’s supporters intimidating officers regarding postal votes.  [EDDC CEO and Returning Officer] Mark Williams “irritated”.  East Devon Alliance is “causing no end of trouble.

2016

3317 – Claire Wrights supporters are “intolerant” – “there is even a website (East Devon Watch)  which perpetuates a new type of politics – one that encourages paranoia and hate.  We need to expel this extremism …!

3542 – (post-election) Hugo is miffed that he is to be sacked by May.  Defies the whip to “return to mid-Devon as he wants to have a good summer”.

3654 – Fundraiser at Woodbury Golf Club – “hideous development”, poor turnout (52).  All stand for the loyal toast except Jill Elson and her sister who try but fail to stand up.

3647 – They have ended their relationship with “Express and Echo” because it is too pro-Claire Wright.  But S says they no longer need them.

Darryl Nicholas (Mayor Exmouth) wants to be new MP.  S notes that Darryl’s “chaotic love life” has settled down.

S dances with the “alarmingly right-wing Colonel Peter Morrison from Westhill.

Graham Liverton draws the raffle – in a high camp manner like the dame he is going to play in pant.

But …”we do love each and every one of them”.

3985 – Bloody year .. the Claire Wright agenda and worse.

2017

Hugo is at a dinner with Duchess Camilla, he drinks too much, she congratulates him on his election, he says “Do you mean my erection?” and she is not amused.

4208 – the terrorist attack outside Parliament – MP Tobias Ellwood goes out and gives first aid to a policeman, Hugo wishes it was him

4261 – Another election in the offing but “H doesn’t have all his ducks in a row [to stand down]” and “we have to take on Claire Wright again with all her cronies spreading their bile about us”.

4322 –  11 May Claire Wrong (stet) is up and running … even has a Campaign Manager, pitching it as a David and Goliath contest, which is hilarious since she has well over 500 helpers and we have one: Toby.  She’s energetic, she gets herself around social media nimbly… We still have the same bunch we had 20 years ago, now 89-99.  Hugo incandescent – one email sent out [by his “campaign”] says he will be on the campaign trail every day – except they sent it to Wright herself”.

4344 – Peter Faithfull – a shiny new nutter – also standing.

4382 – why don’t I canvass with Hugo “I can’t bear the aggression to H”.

Mother-in-law canvasses for H – “gets the usual 20% negative – we never see him around here”.

4415, Election night, Sidmouth.  SS doesn’t have her HRT patch on her leg.  Express and Echo tells her to “go away” when she tries to woo them away from Claire Wright.

Claire Wright also tells H to go away while she is doing an interview and he wants to interrupt her.  “Claire Wright’s henchmen start to circle around me.  Clean fight my arse …”

Fame at last! East Devon Watch is “mentioned in dispatches”.

More, much more, to come.

Some 10,000 more deaths than usual have occurred in peoples’ private homes since mid June, long after the peak in Covid deaths, prompting fears that people may still be avoiding health services and delaying sending their loved ones to care homes.

Pamela Duncan www.theguardian.com 

Some 10,000 more deaths than usual have occurred in peoples’ private homes since mid June, long after the peak in Covid deaths, prompting fears that people may still be avoiding health services and delaying sending their loved ones to care homes.

It brings to more than 30,000 the total number of excess deaths happening in people’s homes across the UK since the start of the pandemic.

Excess deaths are a count of those deaths which are over and above a “normal” year, based on the average number of deaths that occurred in the past five years.

In the past three months the number of excess deaths across all settings, has, in the main been lower than that of previous years. However, deaths in private homes buck the trend with an average of 824 excess deaths per week in people’s homes in the 13 weeks to mid-September.

Experts are citing resistance from the public to enter hospitals or home care settings and “deconditioning” caused by decreased physical activity among older people shielding at home, for example not walking around a supermarket or garden centre as they might normally.

During the pandemic in April and May, occupancy of care homes also fell significantly from 88% to 79% according to one internal industry survey seen by the Guardian with fewer people being placed into homes by their families. Weekly admission fell from 22 per 1,000 residents on 29 March 2020 to 8 per 1,000 by 31 May, according to the Knight Frank report. Given there are about 400,000 UK care bed occupants, that means a fall from 8,800 weekly admissions to 3,200 over that period – creating a substantial cohort of people who would have been in care, but stayed at home or with relatives instead.

“In the most recent weeks we can exclude the fact that much of the excess mortality is due to Covid because infection is much lower,” said David Leon, professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. “So what we see is probably more to do with decisions that are being taken by families, by individuals, their GPs and also hospitals’ willingness to admit.”

A total of 30,260 excess deaths have occurred in private homes since the first coronavirus deaths were recorded in the UK in early March. The total number of deaths occurring in people’s homes across the UK since the first death in early March is now 43% higher than in previous years. However, less than one-in-10 of the excess home deaths are due to Covid (9%).

The latest available figures show that A&E attendances in NHS hospitals in England are below levels a year ago: there were 3.8m attendances at A&Es between June and August, down from 5m in a normal year or 29%.

NHS England said the drop was “likely to be a result of the Covid-19 response”, an indication that people are still avoiding hospitals due to the pandemic.

Delayed access to care during lockdown and people dying of non-Covid conditions which have worsened due to the person previously having the virus may also be contributing to the trend.

Leon stressed the precise reasons for the pandemic having resulted in many more deaths occurring at home was difficult to disentangle, but added it was clear that “compared to the previous five years, deaths are not occurring in hospitals”.

The ONS’s head of health index and projections, Greg Ceely, said that due to a “lower number of Covid-19 deaths in recent weeks, we would not expect delays to be caused by healthcare service capacity”.

Ceely also pointed to the possibility that deaths at home include some which occurred due to undiagnosed Covid-19 “or that the conditions people are dying of other than Covid-19 have potentially worsened due to the person previously having Covid-19”.

He added that there has been some evidence elsewhere that coronavirus can have longer-term effects on the cardiovascular system, with other countries observing an increase in non-Covid deaths from heart-related conditions in areas where C deaths from the virus have occurred.

“There is something quite profound about the fact that many more families are having to deal with people dying at home regardless of the reason,” said Leon.

More than 1,000 people died with Covid-19 every day in the UK for 22 consecutive days in April, peaking at 1,445 deaths on 8 April.

The analysis is based on figures from the Office for National Statistics, National Records of Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

Analysis of excess deaths covers a 27-week period for England and Wales and Scotland (weeks 11 to 37) and four months in Northern Ireland (1 March to 30 June).

The public will be told to download a coronavirus tracing app to protect their families today in one of the biggest government advertising campaigns.

Owl notes the “However…….” and “…It was once the centrepiece of contact tracing, then downgraded to the “cherry on the cake”. Now it seems to be barely more than a high-tech reminder to keep your distance.”

Is this another “Moonshot” over-hyped damp squib?

Chris Smyth, Whitehall Editor | Tom Knowles, Technology Correspondent www.thetimes.co.uk 

Attempts will be made to convince people that their risk of infecting vulnerable relatives will be reduced if they use the delayed app, after appeals to civic duty were less effective.

However, one in three people told to isolate by the app will have been given a “false positive”, in which it will have wrongly thought that they had been within two metres of an infectious person for 15 minutes. This is because of its reliance on Bluetooth signals, which can be affected by nearby objects.

Officials said that this accuracy matched other countries’ apps. However, testing chiefs are downplaying hopes for the contact-tracing function, once heralded by Matt Hancock, the health secretary, as a way to get the nation back to normal. The officials now say that the app’s main benefit could be to prompt people to stick to social distancing and hygiene rules.

Mr Hancock will say today that the launch is “an important step forward”, and urge people to use the app “to protect themselves and their loved ones”.

Developers are aiming for up to a third of the population of England and Wales to download the app. Scotland released its own app this month and Northern Ireland launched one in July.

Wolfgang Emmerich, of Zühlke Engineering, which helped to build the app for England and Wales, said it was “arguably the best in the world”. Called NHS Covid-19, the app is available on Apple’s store for iPhone and Google’s Play store for Android phones. Users will be asked to confirm they are over 16 and to enter the first part of their postcode. There are plans for local lockdowns to be triggered and imposed using an automatic traffic light system, with alerts sent to phones using the app.

Analysis

It was once the centrepiece of contact tracing, then downgraded to the “cherry on the cake”. Now it seems to be barely more than a high-tech reminder to keep your distance.

In playing up the personalised information provided by the contact-tracing app, testing chiefs are partly trying to tempt people to use it: who otherwise would download software whose principal feature was that it might order you to stay at home for two weeks?

But it also reflects diminished hopes for a product that became a victim of Silicon Valley hype and the techno-enthusiasm of Matt Hancock. Testing chiefs now admit it should not have been built up as a technology that would magically help to control the pandemic.

Britain looked to have been left behind while others surged ahead. Now officials insist the technology launching today is as accurate as anywhere in the world and a false positive rate of one in three may be better than the ready reckoning of human contact tracing.

When Boris Johnson sought to explain during his address to the nation on Tuesday why some people had failed to follow the coronavirus rules, he had a surprising explanation: they’re just too British.

Archie Bland www.theguardian.com

“We have kept that virus at bay. But we have to acknowledge this is a great and freedom-loving country, and while the vast majority have complied with the rules there have been too many breaches – too many opportunities for our invisible enemy to slip through undetected.”

The message prompted some obvious questions: just how fervent is Britain about freedom, and how has that affected the country’s response to the coronavirus?

Sunder Katwala, director of the thinktank British Future, is sceptical that breaches of the rules are the result of a innate libertarian streak.

“British people are actually quite authoritarian,” he says. “There is a difference from what the political elite, left and right, say about something like, we would never ban the burka, and what the public say – which is that they would.”

In the current crisis, the same rules persist, says Opinium’s head of political polling, Adam Drummond. As a rule of thumb since coronavirus hit, “the British public will always choose the more ‘safety-first’ option,” he says. “Objections to lockdown measures are a minority pursuit.”

He points to polls finding the public backing the ‘rule of six’ by 66% to 15%, compulsory face masks by 74% to 11%, and quarantine for returning holidaymakers by 64% to 13%.

Deborah Mattinson, cofounder of BritainThinks and author of a new book, Beyond the Red Wall, looking at the voters Labour lost to the Conservatives in 2019, notes a 2018 survey which found that when asked to select the three ideas that most embodied British values, respondents chose ‘being proud to be British’, ‘respect for the rule of law’, and ‘being polite’. ‘Valuing individual freedoms’ came 7th, fractionally below ‘having a Sunday roast’.

“I thought what [Johnson] said was quite muddled,” says Mattinson. “Freedom is not the thing that people are most motivated by, especially right now – and in those red wall seats, the people he is really keen to communicate with, ideas like pride come way higher in terms of what people think of as quintessentially British.”

While Johnson tied his vision of British libertarianism to rule breaking, Katwala suggests that the evidence suggests otherwise.

To begin with, young people are three times as likely to oppose the new measures as the over 65s – yet they tend to be left of centre and far removed from the prominent critics of lockdown in the public sphere.

“Those people feel cooped up, they are politically disaffected. It’s not some big ideological commitment, it’s not ‘I’m a free-born Englishman’ – it’s just they’ve had enough.”

And, he notes, “frustration is high, scepticism in principle is very, very low.”

James Weinberg, a lecturer in political behaviour at Sheffield University who is researching politics in an age of distrust, says that all the evidence shows adherence is much more strongly linked to psychological or demographic profile than principles.

“The people who break the rules, they’re usually doing it because they feel they have no choice – they’re on precarious contracts, or living in multi-occupancy households,” he says.

“The desire to turn this into a jingoistic idea of what it is to be British might be appealing to certain politicians, but it rings quite hollow on the ground.”

Instead of ideology, says Mattinson, qualitative work undertaken by BritainThinks suggests that the likelihood of public adherence to the rules is driven by confidence and understanding of exactly what they are.

“Yes, there is increasing frustration with the rules, but that’s not about having them, that’s about struggling to follow them because they’re seen as confusing and inconsistent and a bit unfair.”

Correspondingly, most polls show higher levels of confidence in the government and willingness to follow lockdown when the rules have been simplest, even if they were also more draconian.

The pattern of the public’s willingness to wear face masks offers a clear example of the broader British approach, says Katwala.

In April, Ipsos MORI found that only 16% had already worn a face mask – which was among the lowest numbers in the world. But 74% said they would do so if they were told to, and after the guidance changed, adherence shot up to 83%. Only 4% said they would refuse a mask for reasons of personal freedom.

“If you don’t have to do so, it’s not very ‘us’,” Katwala says. “But if we’re under instruction, that means there’s good evidence. People actually want to be told whether or not to do things at the moment.”

Just one question remains, then: who, exactly, was Johnson talking to?

One explanation, suggests Mattinson, is that his message wasn’t for the public at all. “I think the audience he had in mind for that line was his more libertarian backbenchers,” she says. “He will feel has to keep his own tribe onside throughout all this.”

Or maybe it’s even closer to home. “My personal guess, I think Johnson is obviously a very liberal Conservative,” says Katwala. “His image of the public is his image of himself.”

The company infamously contracted by Chris Grayling to run ferries in case of a no-deal Brexit – despite having no ships – has gone bust.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk

Seaborne Freight went into liquidation earlier this month, owing nearly £2m, mainly to creditors.

The firm was handed a £13.8m contract by Grayling to bring vital supplies like food and medicine across the Channel in case there was a no-deal Brexit.

But the then-transport secretary was forced to cancel the contract more than a month before the expected Brexit date of March 29 2019, amid fierce criticism. The Department for Transport said at the time no taxpayers’ money was paid to Seaborne.

To relieve pressure on Dover, Seaborne aimed to operate freight ferries from Ramsgate in Kent to the Belgian port of Ostend.

But amid political chaos, Brexit was repeatedly delayed until January 31 this year, when the UK left with a withdrawal agreement and no requirement for special ferries.

The Seaborne fiasco led to huge criticism of Grayling, who was dubbed the “worst transport secretary of all time” by Labour and eventually sacked by Boris Johnson when he became prime minister in July 2019.

Grayling refused to apologise for the debacle, describing criticism of him as “baffling” and at one point telling the Commons “I did see ships”, in a reversal of Horatio Nelson’s famous quote. 

Commenting on Seaborne Freight’s liquidation, Labour’s shadow transport secretary Jim McMahon said: “The disastrous legacy of Chris Grayling lives on.

“Giving out a ferries contract to a company that didn’t actually have any ferries is the epitome of Tory incompetence and wasteful spending.

“Things don’t look to have improved under his successor.

“The Seaborne ferries debacle highlighted how woefully underprepared the government is in planning for our future in a no deal scenario, so with just a few weeks left of current negotiations with the EU the government must double its efforts and deliver the deal it promised the British people.”

Christine Jardine, Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesperson, said: “The demise of Seaborne Freight is a stark reminder of the challenges facing business right now, and haulage firms are no exception.

“With the economy falling off a cliff, we need the government to commit to securing a deal with Europe – this is essential to prevent further economic chaos.”

Jardine also called for “greater transparency” in the awarding of contracts, with “clear accountability” should things go wrong.

Grayling has recently taken on a role as a “strategic adviser” to Hutchison Ports Europe, for which he will earn £100,000 a year for just seven hours of work per week.

Papers filed with Companies House show Seaborne decided to enter voluntary liquidation on September 8. Quantuma have been appointed joint liquidators.

The company’s assets amount to nearly £32,000-worth of computer equipment, nearly £4,500-worth of furniture and equipment, and £2,620 cash in the bank.

The company will go bust owing nearly £2m – made up of £1.2m to trade and expense creditors, a £400,000 loan, £323,000 in directors loans and a £100 corporation tax bill to HMRC.

Conservative MPs across the region claim their constituents should be exempt from any second national lockdown after region suffered UK’s highest job losses hit since pandemic hit

By David Parsley inews.co.uk 

Conservative MPs in the South West of England are calling on Boris Johnson to exempt the region from any future national lockdown as their rural constituencies continue to have the lowest number of Covid-19 infections in the country.

The rural counties of Cornwall, Devon, Dorset and Somerset have already been hit hard by lockdown restrictions, suffering the most jobs losses per head in the UK, according to new research.

Conservative MPs – which make up 29 of the 31 Parliamentary seats in the region – from the area told i they were lobbying ministers for a number of concessions on restrictions, including a “regional unlocking” and an exemption from any full lockdown should cases remain low.

Reliance on hospitality hits region’s workers hardest

According to a study of jobless figures from the Office for National Statistics by work tech company Orka, the rate of unemployment has risen fastest in the South West, from 3.1 per cent before the pandemic struck to 3.8 per cent now. The area has the highest concentration of workers in the hardest hit food and hospitality sectors, with one in ten relying on tourist trade for secure employment.

Anne Marie Morris, Conservative MP for Newton Abbot, said: “The South West does need to be treated differently given our low infection rates and the impact of lockdown measures on our economy. “

Christopher Loder, the MP for West Dorset, added his constituents were being punished for those breaking Covid-safe guidance and laws in towns and Cities across the UK.

“The measure taken are probably proportionate across the UK, but in my constituency of West Dorset we have the lowest infection rate in the whole of England and Wales,” said Mr Loder. “We also have one of the highest proportion, some 97 per cent, of micro businesses, with many of those in the hospitality sector. For me it is unthinkable we would face another national lockdown given our economy is so reliant on tourism and we have the lowest number of cases.”

A case for ‘regional unlocking’

Neil Parish, the Conservative MP for Tiverton and Honiton, said: “There are questions about whether we could have even more tailored measures for individual counties, like Devon, where cases are lower. I would support that.”

Selaine Saxby, MP for North Devon, said: “I have been speaking with ministers about looking at regional unlocking as well as regional lockdowns to reflect this as we move into the next phase of the pandemic.”

Seven other Conservative MPs in the region, who asked not to be named, said they were also discussing the idea of exempting their constituents from any future national lockdown with ministers due to the limited spread of the virus in the region.

Has superforecaster Dominic Cummings the lateral thinking to follow-up this “low tech” solution in No 10’s  high-tech “Mission Control”. – Owl

Helsinki Airport to use dogs to sniff out passengers infected with coronavirus

www.independent.co.uk 

An airport in Finland will trial using trained dogs to sniff out passengers who are carrying coronavirus.

The pilot project, taking place at Helsinki Airport, will start this week with 16 dogs – four per shift – enrolled in the scheme.

It follows a study by the University of Helsinki’s Veterinary Faculty, which demonstrated that trained dogs could smell Covid-19 with close to 100 per cent certainty.

Finnish airport operator Finavia also said the dogs could detect coronavirus from a much smaller sample: they needed between 10 and 100 molecules to identify the virus, compared to the 1.8 million required by the PCR test.

“The pilot that will be kicked off on 22 September 2020 is unique and a world first,” said director of Helsinki Airport Ulla Lettijeff.  

“No other airport has attempted to use canine scent detection on such a large scale against Covid-19.  

“This might be an additional step forward on the way to beating Covid-19.”

There will be no direct contact between the dogs and passengers. Instead, travellers will be required to swab their skin with a test wipe.

These wipes will be sniffed by the dogs, and anyone they identify as carrying coronavirus will be directed to a health information point.

The dogs have been trained by Wise Nose, a Finnish agency that specialises in smell detection.

Most of the dogs have previous scent detection experience, with the amount of time it takes to teach them the coronavirus scent varying according to their backgrounds.  

One of the dogs, eight-year-old greyhound mix Kössi, learned to identify the smell in just seven minutes.

It’s Boristime v Coronatime, and there’s only ever one winner

Some men are born mediocre. Some achieve mediocrity. Others have mediocrity thrust upon them. In 1940 we had Winston Churchill. In 2020 we have Boris Johnson, a man who believes himself to be Churchill’s reincarnation, but is nothing more than a poundshop imitation.

John Crace www.theguardian.com 

Where to start with the prime minister’s TV address to the nation? The trademark smirk? The nervous hand gestures? The fact he thinks he’s fighting a war, not a pandemic? Or just the brazen cheek as Boris tried to claim the credit for what he called the stunning triumph over the coronavirus so far? The 50,000 dead and the endless screw-ups of his own government, from care homes to test and trace, were simply airbrushed out of history. The prime minister is not just a man without quality. He is a man without shame.

All this was just a warm up for the grandiose announcement of a few extra restrictions that had already been announced and would almost certainly prove to be insufficient to cope with the second wave. Boris apologised for the new measures, though he laid the blame squarely on the British people for not having been able to abide by the existing measures. Perhaps he should have run that line past Dominic Cummings who set an example so many followed.

“Never in our history has our collective destiny and our collective health depended so completely on our individual behaviour,” he said, winding up the Churchill rhetoric. “There are unquestionably difficult months to come. And the fight against Covid is by no means over. I have no doubt, however, that there are great days ahead. But now is the time for us all to summon the discipline, and the resolve, and the spirit of togetherness that will carry us through.” Qualities that have yet to be found in Johnson.

It had been much the same story in the Commons earlier in the day and you had to feel for Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance, who must now be wondering why they had gone to so much trouble the previous day to explain just how critical the coronavirus rates of infection had become and that the threat had now risen back to level four. For after a few token nods to the gravity of the situation – “a stitch in time saves nine” – Boris Johnson used his commons statement to introduce a few minor tweaks to lockdown restrictions that rather suggested he wasn’t too bothered.

He wanted schools, colleges, universities and businesses to remain open – with the one proviso that all those he had previously threatened with the sack if they didn’t go back to work were now advised to work from home if at all possible. His biggest change was that pubs, restaurants and bars should now all close at 10pm – it has apparently been proved that the coronavirus is mainly a nocturnal creature and is most contagious after dark – though people were obviously free to go home in groups of six, get totally hammered and infect one another afterwards.

Like most Johnson statements it felt rather as if it had been written on the fly. By a committee of his left and right brain, with little synaptic contact between the two. There were few attempts to explain the situation carefully and carry the country with him. Just a load of off the cuff measures – mandatory face masks for shop and hospitality workers etc – and the threat of stricter measures to come if people didn’t comply or the restrictions proved ineffective.

This time he was really, really serious, he said, trying not to smirk. He understood that, unlike the Hun, we Brits were too freedom loving to comply with every law – nothing to do with the government’s mixed messaging obviously – but there were limits. There was nothing the public liked less than one law for the powerful and another for everyone else, so unless it involved driving up to Durham for eye tests it was time to rein in our libertarian instincts.

These restrictions could last for up to six months, Boris added. Which immediately raised eyebrows on both sides of the Commons. Because the prime minister’s idea of time rarely coincides with anyone else’s. It was Boris who had initially said the worst of the pandemic would be over in 12 weeks. It was Boris who had said we should be back to normal by Christmas. Now he was saying we were in for another half-year. Which probably meant that you could probably double it. Maybe he was thinking of Christmas 2021.

The pandemic has highlighted the stark difference between Boristime and Coronatime. Because he is unable to treat the country as grownups and can’t handle being the bearer of bad news, Boris invariably shortens any given Covid timeframe. Years become months, months become weeks. Meanwhile Coronatime has the last laugh of turning each of his strategies from months into weeks and weeks into days. You sometimes can’t even tell if one of his promises is going to last till the end of a sentence.

If Keir Starmer was put out that his powerful virtual conference speech had been all but forgotten by lunchtime he showed no sign of it. Rather he maintained his familiar tactic of broadly supporting the government’s new measures, before pointing out some of their more obvious shortcomings. Were there any signs that localised lockdowns were proving effective? What financial support was he planning to offer for jobs and businesses affected by the new restrictions? And whatever had happened to the world-beating test-and-trace system that everyone had agreed was essential to containing the virus?

Mostly, though, Boris’s concentration was focused on keeping his own backbenchers happy, as half of them want to avoid any further restrictions to keep the economy open and half have genuine concerns that the party will not be forgiven if the death toll in the second wave matches or exceeds that of the first one. And by and large he succeeded in treading an uneasy balance between being too bullish and too pragmatic. Up until the end, that is. Then his natural enthusiasm got the better of him. The ludicrous £100bn “Operation Moonshot” was still on course and with any luck everything would be fine within a matter of a few months.

We were back on Boristime. Though not for long, as moments after he had finished speaking Nicola Sturgeon made her own statement to the Scottish parliament. Where Boris had sounded somewhat rambling and, at times, contradictory, in his statement, Nicola was a model of clarity and precision. She has a clear grasp of her priorities and sticks to them. She had listened to the advice of Whitty and Vallance and concluded it was necessary to go a lot further than England. In Scotland the “rule of six” was a goner, and there would be no unnecessary socialising between families indoors for the foreseeable future.

With Northern Ireland having already reached a similar conclusion, that left Boris as something of an outlier. Already people were taking bets that his new restrictions would have to be updated within a week. In the battle between Boristime and Coronatime, there’s so far only ever been one winner.

[The problem of trying to get on top of events using the best evidence available – very pragmatic “science”- Owl]

The government’s estimate that infections were doubling every seven days was based largely on smaller-scale studies involving only a few hundred cases rather than test and trace, amid fears that failings in national community testing meant it was critically underestimating the spread.

Tom Whipple, Science Editor www.thetimes.co.uk 

Sir Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty, the chief scientific adviser and the chief medical adviser, said yesterday that at present rates of growth Britain could be looking at 50,000 cases a day by the middle of October.

The projection was based on an assumption that the number of infected people would double each week — a figure that appeared to contradict testing data.

Official figures show that it has taken a fortnight for the epidemic to grow from around 2,000 confirmed cases a day to 4,000.

Graham Medley, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, sits on the modelling committee for the government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies, Spi-M. He said that they had realised their best estimates of doubling times were out of date, and they became worried that the epidemic had gathered pace.

“The estimates from Spi-M are ten to 20 days’ doubling time, but these are largely based on data from two to three weeks ago,” he said. “The concern was that the more recent doubling time is shorter. There was also concern that the problems with testing meant that the data were not particularly reliable.”

A spokeswoman for Sir Patrick said that the seven-day estimate had instead been based heavily on the findings of the weekly survey of the Office for National Statistics, and a similar less-frequent survey called React-1, run by Imperial College London.

These studies both test a random sample of more than 100,000 people to track the progress of the virus. Because the virus is still at low levels, however, it involves making projections on the basis of small numbers of positive cases. In its latest study the React-1 team sampled 153,000 people and found 136 cases, the last on September 7.

On the basis of the change in the proportion of positives over the period they were sampling, they estimated a seven-day doubling time.

Steven Riley, from Imperial College, said that having several different sources of data is crucial, particularly if one is suffering from problems.

“The very well reported issues in the test and trace system mean that the proportion of infections that are picked up over time might not be constant,” he said.

“Studies like ONS and React are providing timely data, that is an alternative source to the test and trace data. There is a lot of value in having these parallel sources.” However, he acknowledged that there was an inherent uncertainty. “In the end it’s 136 positives. It’s the positives that give you the information. So it’s not perfect, and when you’re estimating from 136 observations you have to make sure you give an accurate sense of the uncertainty.”

Ewan Birney, deputy director general of the European Molecular Biology Laboratory, said that the nature of a pandemic made it inevitable that decisions were made on the basis of imperfect data.

“In this epidemic there is a lag until we start to see hospitalisation data and death data from infections. That is not a fault of measurement; it’s biology. There’s no way of improving it.

“There are a variety of sources that the government will use to show that now is the time for action,” he said.

“Imperial’s React study and the ONS study are both really good.”

He said that despite their low number of positive cases, because they use random community sampling, rather than relying on people to volunteer, they would be crucial pieces of information even if community testing was working perfectly.

“It is critical to have as unbiased data as possible. Big numbers won’t solve your bias problem — that’s why we have these studies.”

Go to the pub, but don’t come into contact with other people. Only meet in groups of six, but also sit in a restaurant with 30 other diners. Go to your office, but don’t go by public transport. Listen to the scientists, except when we’re ignoring them. Relax. Under no circumstances should you relax.

Imogen West-Knights www.theguardian.com 

It is sometimes difficult, in the face of such mixed messages from the government, to resist the urge to crescendo directly into a full-throated scream on getting out of bed in the morning.

The government has an unenviable job in dealing with coronavirus, as the situation changes from day to day, but other governments have undoubtedly done it better. According to a June YouGov poll of 27 countries, Britons had the second lowest level of confidence in their government’s handling of the pandemic.

The level of trust in those making the decisions dictates whether or not people will follow their advice – so this is a pretty huge problem. Part of it is that the decision-making has seemed so erratic and opaque. Rules and advice are issued after balancing priorities and risks, but the fact that the government’s process is never made clear makes you wonder whose priorities are being valued over others’.

Getting children back to school means a risk of increased infections, so we need to limit people’s contact elsewhere, for instance in domestic social settings. This we can understand and get on board with. However, when the government pushes to get people back in the office to appease commercial landlords, and then offsets that risk by, for instance, banning your birthday picnic, it feels like being kicked while you’re down.

Then there are the times it has flagrantly revealed that there is one rule for them, and another for the rest of us. First there was Dominic Cummings’ tour of the north-east during lockdown. Now, groups larger than six aren’t allowed to meet, unless you happen to be running around in a special little costume shooting at birds for fun – which just happens to be very popular in Rishi Sunak’s Yorkshire constituency.

People have a knack of remembering past events and making their own judgments. The government can’t go from having said that nobody should leave their homes when the infection rates were rocketing in April to saying that you should get on a packed train to engineer a reunion with your colleagues’ coffee breath when the infection rates are climbing again at a similar rate. If it was dangerous then, it’s dangerous now.

To calm these fears, the government is constantly rummaging in the hat for a new rabbit to present as the magic trick to end the pandemic. The latest is Operation Moonshot, the patently bonkers idea that we are going to be able to deploy between 2m and 4m tests per day by December, and 10m by early 2021.

“It should be possible,” Johnson said last week, “to deploy these tests on a far bigger scale than any country has yet achieved.” I’m not sure what part of the last six months gives anybody in the government confidence that this “should be possible”. Under our existing testing programme, it’s difficult to get a coronavirus test any closer than Belgium – and if you’re lucky enough to have had one, there is currently a backlog of 185,000 swabs to be processed.

Before Operation Moonshot, there were the proposed immunity passports, despite the fact that scientists didn’t know how immunity to coronavirus even worked, the tracing apps that have yet to materialise, and the Covid risk monitoring system that sank without trace.

There is, of course, a delicate balancing act to achieve between stopping the economy from completely tanking, allowing people some small freedoms and protecting the most vulnerable among us from unnecessary danger. But scattergun messaging isn’t getting us anywhere, except knee-deep in the worst recession of all the G7 nations and unforgivably high death tolls. If the advice from the government continues to be this conflicting, the easiest thing for people to do will be to trust their own instincts to protect those around them.

• Imogen West-Knights is a writer and journalist based in London

When Covid-19 struck Europe, Lombardy’s flooded hospitals and spiralling death toll provided a grim template for Italy’s neighbours. In the past weeks, however, it is offering a more upbeat, alternative path: while Spain, France and the UK are experiencing a second surge in infections after loosening lockdown restrictions, Italy has kept the disease under control.

Miles Johnson and Davide Ghiglione in Rome, John Burn-Murdoch in London www.ft.co

New daily cases are on the rise to 1,535 from the low hundreds in June, when restrictions started easing. But this compares with over 10,000 new cases in Spain and France. Life feels normal in most of Italy: restaurants and bars are open, people enjoy late-summer trips to the beach and children have returned to school.

Experts highlight three main reasons for Italy’s resilience.

First-mover advantage

For Fabrizio Pregliasco, a virologist at the University of Milan, “Italy is in a better situation than other countries such as the United Kingdom, Spain or France because we were among the first in the world to face the Covid hurricane.” Its health system and government have had more time to plan its post-lockdown response and the lifting of restrictions have been relaxed more gradually, allowing the government greater agility in reintroducing restrictions when needed.

Prime minister Giuseppe Conte has kept on reminding Italians to remain vigilant. Under Italy’s Covid-19 state of emergency he has the power to rule by decree, meaning his government was able to react swiftly to an uptick in new cases over the summer. By contrast, Spain’s state of alert, which granted the central government emergency powers over the regions, lapsed on June 21.

In August, Rome ordered a closure of discos and introduced a rule that face masks must be worn in all crowded places between 6pm and 6am. The measures, which were initially in place for a month, were extended for a further 30 days in early September. 

High public compliance and stricter enforcement

Public health officials cite the high public acceptance of restrictions, such as compulsory mask wearing in shops and on public transport. Visitors to bars and restaurants must write down their names and numbers, a measure largely complied with during the summer.

According to a survey conducted by Imperial College London, 84 per cent of Italians surveyed said they would be “very or quite willing” to wear a face mask advised to by their government. This compares to 76 per cent in the UK.

Those in breach of rules are punished. In late August, Italian media reported that a 29-year-old man was fined €400 for refusing to wear a mask near Rome’s Trevi fountain and telling the officers that “Covid doesn’t exist”.

On Monday alone police checked 50,602 people and 4,939 businesses, sanctioning 227 individuals and ordering the closure of three companies.

“Italians are more respectful of the measures of social distancing and against the transmission of the virus, even in the smallest commercial activity all measures are observed very scrupulously,” said Andrea Crisanti, a professor of microbiology at the university of Padua.

Individual behaviour, although hard to quantify, has played an important role, said Ferdiando Luca Lorini, director of intensive care at a hospital in Bergamo.

“We have gone from the most affected country to one of the virtuous countries in the management of the pandemic thanks to the clarity of the rules from the very beginning, and the willingness of everyone to respect them,” he said.

Effective testing and monitoring

Andrea Crisanti, professor of microbiology at the University of Padua, said the public health response has focused on not just mass testing but also effective surveillance of cases to track and trace anyone who has come into contact with an infected person.

About 2 per cent of tests give a positive result, compared with about 13 per cent of tests performed in Spain, suggesting the virus is way more widespread in the latter. 

“Once there is a positive we test all those who may have come into contact with them. The real problem of the epidemic are the cases with no symptoms, if you do not intercept these, you do not come out of it,” he said.

In August, when Sardinia, a popular holiday destinations for Italians, emerged as a hotspot for the virus — former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi and Formula One boss Flavio Briatore both contracted the virus on the island — authorities introduced drive-through testing at the port of Civitavecchia on the mainland where ferries shuttle holidaymakers to and from the island. Positive cases were isolated more quickly, preventing the outbreak in Sardinia from spreading to other regions.

While few want to tempt fate ahead of winter, there is confidence that Italy’s efforts can continue to keep the virus under control.

“If Italians, who have been very diligent so far with regard to all the measures, keep holding on then we should be able to manage the situation and get used to coexisting with the problem until a vaccine arrives,” said Mr Pregliasco.

Additional reporting by Daniel Dombey in Madrid, Adrienne Klasa in London and Victor Mallet in Paris

Fightback against rise in Covid cases thrashed out at No 10 summit

[A companion piece to https://eastdevonwatch.org/2020/09/22/follow-the-science-but-which-science-do-you-follow/%5D

Deep into Sunday night, a debate was playing out in the heart of Downing Street. The prime minister had gathered the UK’s most eminent scientists – and was learning that “follow the science” is not as simple as it sounds.

Severin Carrell www.theguardian.com

After more than a week of worrying news, with cases rising dramatically across the UK, some of the scientists at the late-night summit were in fierce disagreement over what to do.

Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, held a summit of scientists from the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) to help thrash out how to proceed.

Among those also present were two Oxford University figures – Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, and Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-based Medicine.

Heneghan and Gupta have voiced caution over blanket, nationwide lockdown measures and are understood to feel strongly about the presentation of data on rising cases. They have argued for more targeted measures to protect the vulnerable, such as in care homes, so that new measures do not affect those younger people who are least at risk.

There was some controversy over data showing an exponential increase in cases, such as the one showing a jump from 6,000 a day now to 50,000 in mid-October, which could lead to 200 deaths a day by the following month.

Predictably, when it was presented at the media briefing by England’s chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser – who stressed it was not a forecast – it was this slide that created the headlines.

A Downing Street source said the prime minister had wanted to hear “a wide range of views” from scientists and other experts.

Heneghen and Gupta have since written an open letter to the prime minister and to Whitty and Vallance to try to persuade them to change course – and to impose more targeted measures to contain the virus.

The measures expected to be announced on Tuesday – to close pubs and restaurants at 10pm and limit service to tables only – are softer than had previously been predicted or advised. Over the weekend, a source in one of the devolved administrations said there was also a concerted push from health officials to “move hard and fast: do it now and do it hard”.

That response led to some pushback from the Treasury, according to several sources, amid concern that businesses and industry had no buffer to absorb any further impact. “The economy is in a very different place to March,” one Whitehall source said. The source stressed that did not mean economic advisers had told No 10 not to act.

Leaked advice to the Scottish government laid out proposed plans for a so-called “circuit breaker” lockdown – two weeks of more severe measures – which for now appear to have been rejected by the prime minister.

Written by Scottish government officials last Saturday, based on advice given by Sage scientists who cover the whole UK, it also suggests a “rolling lockdown” for different parts of Scotland linked to October’s half-term holidays, including travel restrictions, closing play parks and shutting down hairdressers.

The measures were revealed in a leaked document marked “official sensitive”, which suggested a “general message” that people should again stay at home except for essential shopping and exercise and also avoid public transport.

At the weekend a flurry of telephone briefings took place to discuss the strategy, including a cabinet phone briefing with Whitty and Vallance on Saturday, as well as the chief economic adviser Claire Lombardelli.

The strategy was finally signed off at a Covid strategy committee meeting, involving Johnson, Sunak and Matt Hancock, the health secretary. The prime minister then briefed the heads of devolved administrations, who will join a Cobra meeting on Tuesday.

Labour officials had to scramble to respond. Keir Starmer’s keynote conference speech in Doncaster on Tuesday was hastily brought forward by two hours after the prime minister said he would make a statement to MPs in the House of Commons on Tuesday, so the Labour leader could be back in London in time to respond.