“The proportion of adult social care workers in England leaving their jobs has increased 7.6% over the five years to 2017-18, according to workforce figures.
Most of those leaving were new recruits, particularly people under 30 – with a turnover rate of 42.4% in the last financial year – according to the charity Skills for Care’s annual report, published today. …”
https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2018/09/social-care-staff-turnover-rises
“Ask most people about England’s epidemic of empty homes and they are likely to think of lavish vacant mansions in London owned by absent foreign billionaires.
In fact, the majority of empty properties are in post-industrial areas, where poverty rates are high and house prices languish well below their pre-crash levels. Such a place is Stockton-on-Tees, near Middlesbrough, where Martyn Jones lives.
Two years ago Jones, 23, was homeless and relying on friends to let him sleep on their couches while he struggled to find work. Today, he is painting a wall in a gutted home on a quiet street, part of a group tasked with refurbishing some of the area’s many vacant, derelict homes.
Last week, Theresa May pledged an extra £2bn for housing associations to fund large-scale developments. But with new house building not providing enough affordable homes for more than 1 million people on waiting lists in England, social enterprises and councils are trying to bring empty homes, which number well over 200,000 and are worth almost £50bn, back into occupancy.
Over 11,000 homes have stood empty for at least 10 years, data shows
One of them is Community Campus 87, which buys such properties in Stockton-on-Tees, refurbishes them and offers them to previously homeless tenants at rents below the going rate for social housing. In the process, it provides jobs and skills training for people such as Jones.
Having left school at 16, Jones struggled with substance use and anxiety, unable to hold down a job. When his mother kicked him out, he worried he was out of options. “I wouldn’t be here today if it wasn’t for Campus,” he says. “They gave me a home, helped me along the way and now I’ve started going to college.”
Amid a dramatic national collapse in apprenticeships, about 15% of Community Campus’ staff are apprentices, according to its director and founder, Simon Virth. The group, which has refurbished about 250 homes so far, also offers help with job interviews, jobcentre appointments and finding free educational programmes at local colleges.”
“A lack of government lawyers as a result of Brexit is to blame for delays in producing the necessary orders for a merger of two local authorities in the South West of England, it has been claimed.
The County Gazette has reported that three orders from central government are needed to transfer all the necessary legal powers to the authority that will take over from Taunton Deane Borough Council and West Somerset District Council.
An apppendix to a paper presented at a meeting of Taunton Deane’s scrutiny committee last week said: “Still waiting on MHCLG [the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government] finalising – Brexit impacting on MHCLG’s ability to access lawyers in a timely fashion.
“As long as final version is very similar to draft sould not cause too great an issue. The uncertainty is the concern however.”
The appendix said a general order had been due to be published on 24 July this year.
The merger of Taunton Deane and West Somerset was backed in March by the then Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government, Sajid Javid.”
Source: Local Government Lawyer
Owl is noticing more and more empty shops – even in places that seemed to be weathering the High Street decline so far (eg Sidmouth).
Isn’t it time our council did an audit of our high streets (empty shops, open shops, temporary pop-up shops, local-owned independent, chain stores, charity shops) to get a proper idea of just how bad this problem is in each town and what the mix says about the health of each town centre? And time to come up with a strategy for their future?
“… Charges to withdraw money from cash machines would be scrapped under a Labour government to “save Britain’s high streets”.
Attempts to stop their “slow agonising death” were announced by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey with a range of measures – including stopping Post Office closures.
Sky News can reveal Labour would draw up a register of landlords of empty shops in every local authority.
And the party would deliver free public wi-fi in town centres, for those having a coffee or working in community spaces.
The plans are due to be announced on Tuesday by Ms Bailey at Labour’s autumn conference in Liverpool.
She is aiming to boost support for the party in British towns, as leader Jeremy Corbyn suggested a general election could be called imminently.
Brexit secretary Dominic Raab insisted on Sunday that “it’s not going to happen”.
Research by Which? published in June found that the free-to-use ATM network was “under threat”.
The idea to ban them was championed by Labour MP Ged Killen, who welcomed the party’s announcement.
“No one should ever have to pay to access their own money,” he told Sky News.
“If any government is serious about economic development in our towns and high streets they need to protect the financial infrastructure people and business rely on.”
The other plans would see post offices owned by the government stopped from further franchising and closing.
Under-25s will also get free bus travel in local authorities where local bus services are either franchised or publicly owned.
Labour has also promised to “work with” councils to extend wi-fi roll-outs by commercial developers in public spaces.
And it will force shop landlords to make their identity and contact details public, creating an empty shop register to “make it easier to bring empty units into use”.
A new annual business rates re-evaluation will also be introduced. …”
https://news.sky.com/story/labour-would-scrap-atm-charges-in-bid-to-save-high-streets-11507872
“The government is expected to bail out Liverpool’s new £335 million NHS hospital and take it back into public ownership, nine months after the failure of Carillion left the project in crisis.
Carillion, the public sector contracting and construction group, collapsed in the new year with £2.6 billion of pension liabilities and £2 billion of debts.
Matthew Hancock, the health secretary, is understood to have told officials to end the impasse surrounding the hospital, which had been due to open last year. He is ready to say within days that the Royal Liverpool Hospital private finance initiative deal is being cancelled and that the project is returning to full public ownership, according to Sky News.
The trust that runs the hospital is due to hold a board meeting today and a statement from ministers may be timed to coincide with it. Private sector contracts relating to the project are set to expire before the end of the month.”
Source Times (pay wall)
“England’s county councils are to outline another wave of cuts, with almost £1bn needed in reductions to balance the books next February.
Startling analysis by the County Councils Network (CCN) warned that local authorities will set out £685m in savings and cuts next February; alongside an additional £233m of ‘unplanned’ frontline service cuts, unless the government provides these councils with new funding next year.
One of the root causes behind the major savings drives include significant overspends in areas such as children’s services: the CCN noted that county authorities have overspent £264m on the sector in the face of “unprecedented demand” for the services.
County authorities around the country are facing similar dire straits when it comes to financial difficulties: last week Somerset County Council approved major cuts worth £13m to services, and last month said they will need to cut more than 100 jobs to make the necessary savings to meet their budget.
The CCN noted that under soaring demand for care services, more resources will need to be diverted to compensate; extra charges could therefore be introduced, as well as increasing reductions to non-social care expenditure such as roads, libraries, economic growth services, and bus routes.
Leader of Leicestershire County Council and finance spokesman for the CCN Nick Rushton said: “County councils across the country have no choice but find a further £1bn of savings next year. Choices will be limited and reductions to front line services inevitable: with valued services such as pothole and highway repairs, children’s centres, libraries and increased charges for residents all on the agenda.
“There is not enough money today to run vital services. Next year there is even less from the drop in government funding, expiry of the social care grant and the ending of the social care precept for some councils. We will have to once again ask our residents to pay, but we are at the point where council tax rises alone are not going to protect services.
Cllr Rushton added unless the government intervenes and provides new funding, councils will have “no choice” but to outline the cuts in budgets next February. With councils using at least £185m of reserves this year, their ability to draw down the same levels next year to offset cuts is limited.
Chairman of the Local Government Association Lord Porter, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and the CCN will be giving their thoughts on the local government funding crisis in PSE’s upcoming magazine: hitting desks 8 October.”
Source: County Councils Network
“Owners of Britain’s largest water companies use offshore tax havens as they load up the firms with £24bn of debt:
“The owners of Britain’s largest water companies used offshore tax havens as they loaded up the firms with £24bn of debt.
Thames Water, Anglian, Southern and Yorkshire Water – which jointly supply almost 30m people – are billions of pounds in the red and paid no corporation tax last year.
Critics claim their debts were racked up by owners to drive down tax bills and extract huge profits.
The Paradise Papers have shone a light on the use of offshore tax havens by the rich and famous – but they are also popular with utility firms.
Thames, Anglian, Southern and Yorkshire all used offshore firms to borrow money. In total from all forms of financing, Thames now owes £10.5bn, Anglian owes £6.8bn, Southern owes £3.5bn, and Yorkshire owes £3.7bn.
Utilities financing expert Martin Blaiklock said: ‘How much of that cheap money has just been going straight into the pockets of the owners as opposed to benefiting the customers?’
The four firms set up subsidiaries in the Cayman Islands more than a decade ago to get around rules in the UK preventing them from raising cash on the bond markets. Although those rules have since been scrapped, many continued to use the offshore firms.
Often interest payments made through havens do not incur tax as they would in the UK.
Analysis of accounts by the Mail suggests money has been lent between different parts of the companies, generating interest payments that reduce taxable profits.
Southern Water Services Ltd paid £133.6m in interest during 2016-17 to Cayman subsidiary Southern Water Services (Finance).
Southern Water Services Ltd ended the year with an £84.9m tax credit.
Thames Water Utilities Ltd paid £356.8m on interest on inter-company loans and ended up with a tax credit of £70.3m. The firm has paid no corporation tax since 2006.
Anglian Water Services Ltd paid £286.5m in interest to subsidiaries while earning £192m in interest from other parts of the company. It ended the year with a tax credit of £37.9m. Anglian Water group has issued bonds via a UK company with a Cayman holding company it says is dormant.
Yorkshire Water Services Ltd paid £198m interest on inter-company loans and ended up with a £101.5m tax credit.
Thames’s former owner Macquarie and fellow shareholders paid themselves £2.6bn in dividends between 2006 and last year, while the firm faces huge fines for leaks. Water firms stress they are allowed to delay corporation tax to encourage investment. Anglian said it had invested £1bn in the region and paid £210m in taxes.
Ofwat, the water regulator, is unhappy about the offshore structures, warning the sector faces a huge crisis of public trust.
It also wants companies to bring debt down, and is expected to introduce tougher rules on the amount they can charge customers.
Aileen Armstrong, senior director for finance and governance at Ofwat said: ‘It’s clear that many people don’t like the idea of public monopoly utility companies relying on complex financial arrangements.’ Yorkshire Water says it plans to close its subsidiary. Thames and Anglian have also indicated they might do so.
A Thames Water spokesman said both Thames and its Cayman financing company were resident in the UK for tax purposes.
He said: ‘There is no tax benefit associated with the companies being registered in the Cayman Islands and the companies operate and are managed wholly from our UK office.’
An Anglian Water spokesman said its Cayman firm is dormant and serves no purpose.
He added: ‘As Anglian Water has always been registered in the UK for tax, it therefore does not, and never has, benefited from any tax advantage from this.’
A Southern Water spokesman said the firm is resident in the UK for tax purposes and that ‘there is no tax benefit’ to its Cayman Islands structure.
Yorkshire Water said it was taking steps to remove unnecessary offshore structures and pays all tax in full.
Finance director Liz Barber added: ‘Our policy is not to enter into transactions that have a main purpose of gaining a tax advantage and not to make interpretations of tax law that are opposed to the original published intention of the law.’ “
This one on the site of the current police HQ at Middlemoor. Exeter City Council is recommending refusal due to the high volume of traffic it would cause. It seems EDDC has no such worries for traffic at a large supermarket in Cranbrook.
… “An objection was also received from East Devon District Council as any approval for a bulky goods retail uses and the proposed food could be accommodated within Cranbrook town centre and so it is a sequentially preferable location, adding: “The development is likely to have a significant detrimental impact on Cranbrook town centre contrary to national planning guidance.” …”
https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/plans-new-retail-park-police-2038531
From last month:
“If you’re one of those poor saps who just wants the NHS to keep on running and stay away from privatisation, you may be surprised to hear that this is all just a little bit too ‘political’ for the South Devon and Torbay Clinical Commissioning Group.
Commissioning Groups are ‘clinically-led statutory NHS bodies responsible for the planning and commissioning of health care services for their local area’. They were set up by the Tories in cahoots with the Lib Dems, reneging on the promise of no reorganising of the NHS.
Meanwhile, Devon is seeing hospitals close, bed disappear and services stretched. (There may well be something like a Hospital-Air-B&B type of arrangment in the offing, too.)
The Torbay and South Devon Trades Council have arranged a meeting at The Acorn Centre on August 23rd from 6.30pm to 830pm on ‘NHS Health and Social Care Can it Survive as a Public Service’.
NHS… not for health professionals
After seeing the five-point agenda (see below, 1 is an introduction, 4 and 5 are questions) the Clinical Commissioning Group for Torbay and South Devon decided that the topics are for politicians and not for health professionals.
This is despite them being ‘clinically-led statutory NHS bodies responsible for the planning and commissioning of health care services for their local area’.
Hey ho.”
http://www.theprsd.co.uk/2018/08/14/nhs-meeting-deemed-too-political-for-south-devon-and-torbay-ccg/
Owl says: not to worry, it is too political for the DCC Health and Wellbeing Committee too, which rushes all CCG changes through at super-fast speed and on the nod from majority Tory block-voting councillors- too much politics obviously beeing too much for their (and our) pretty little heads.
Despite Independent Councillor Claire Wright and EDA Independent Councillor Martin Shaw really, really wanting a political (and ethical) debate.
A reader with a forensic memory of EDDC matters, on reading Owl’s post below, points out that our ruling party is no stranger to councillors not attending meetings.
From the Exmouth Journal of October 2010. And, what do you know, it was another member of the EDDC’s Planning Committee and the East Devon Business Forum shirking his other duties! And, from the remarks of a current sitting EDDC councillor (Tom Wright – Con) at the time, it seems he feels it is OK for members of HIS party to go missing from meetings!
“At this month’s Budleigh Salterton town council meeting members responded with ‘who, who?’ whenever councillors Ray Franklin and Malcolm Florey were mentioned.
Some residents have questioned how Councillor Florey, who recently moved from East Devon to France, can adequately serve the town.
A Budleigh Salterton resident, who did not want to be named, said many in the town felt misrepresented by Cllrs Florey and Franklin.
She said: “I think it’s quite surprising how Cllr Franklin attends East Budleigh meetings and very rarely attends Budleigh Salterton meetings.
“I would also like to know how can a man who lives in France know what’s going in his ward?”
After the meeting, Budleigh town councillor John Shiel said: “We are not being represented by our ward members. One’s a Francophile and one’s Where’s Waldo.
“The other one is working his socks off for us. We’d be better off just keeping the one.”
The town council has called for a meeting with the district council to discuss its ward member concerns.
District councillor Ray Franklin said he worked hard for the town’s future investment through his role sitting on the district council’s planning committee.
He said: “They have got their view and I have got mine. Malcolm and myself are always positive.
“I hope a meeting takes place and I hope that something constructive comes out of it.”
Budleigh mayor Tom Wright said: “Since I have been mayor, Councillor Franklin’s not appeared to have shown any interest in Budleigh Salterton affairs, but that’s not to say he doesn’t do things behind the scenes for the people he represents.
“When Malcolm Florey was living in East Budleigh he was very active. He got the farmers’ market off the ground, he was behind the opening of the East Budleigh shop and very active and energetic in pursuing the youth club.
“Malcolm Florey did attend our meetings when he was here, but not now he’s living in France. I can’t remember Ray Franklin attending a meeting.”
Malcolm Florey was unavailable for comment at the time of going to press.”
http://www.exmouthjournal.co.uk/news/we-are-not-being-represented-1-677070
The following anonymous comment was received today:
“Democracy is a wonderful thing and Pratt won fair and square. But seeing as you pride yourself on ‘keeping a close eye on our district’, how did you possibly miss that the last councillor failed to show up to any meetings?”
(Councillors must attend one official meeting such as a Cabinet meeting per six months (this does not include think tanks, informal meetings, etc )
Owl responds:
Quality not quantity, dear boy (or girl). One of EDDC’s most assiduous councillors – turning up at anything and everything and with fingers in many, many pies such as the Local Development Framework and the notorious East Devon Business Forum was long-time Conservative councillor Graham Brown and look how that panned out:
“The former senior police officer in charge of investigating corruption has revealed that he was ordered to halt an inquiry into Russian money laundering.
Jon Benton, who headed up the National Crime Agency’s international corruption unit, said a more senior official linked to the Foreign Office told him to drop his inquiry.
Mr Benton’s claim is deeply embarrassing for the Government which insists it is clamping down on Vladimir Putin’s cronies who have stashed their wealth in the UK. Mr Benton, a detective superintendent, headed up the international corruption unit (ICU) when it was set up in 2015. He retired last year. …”
“More than a million vulnerable people on low incomes are being driven deeper into poverty after being shunted into the private rental sector due to an acute shortage of social accommodation.
A report commissioned by the Nationwide Foundation, an independent charity, says that the shortfall in social housing has been met by a doubling in size of the private rented sector in the past 25 years.
But this has forced more households, many on benefits with dependent children or a disabled family member, to pay significantly more for unsuitable housing.
The shake-up of the benefits system – which has led to sanctions being imposed on people claiming universal credit who fail to attend meetings with job advisers or decline to participate in employment schemes – has had a dramatic effect on the attitudes of private landlords.
“Because of sanctions you’re more likely to fall into arrears and to be asked to leave because you are in arrears,” said the author of the report, Dr Julie Rugg, of the University of York’s centre for housing policy. She has spent 20 years studying the benefits system and its relationship with the housing sector.
“The welfare system change has created vulnerability,” Rugg said. “It didn’t used to be the case 10 years ago but it is now. People know the benefits system is tightening up but they might not realise that if you’re at the bottom end and receiving benefits then your situation can be pretty precarious indeed.”
Rugg’s report found that more than a third (38%) of the private rented sector now comprises low-income households who are classed as vulnerable.
And almost nine out of 10 of these – equivalent to 1.4 million households – are living either in poverty or in poor or overcrowded conditions.
The shortage of social housing stock means private landlords can charge more than housing associations, often for inferior accommodation.
“Generally speaking, people are paying an extra £25 a week because they are living in the private rented sector,” Rugg said. “It might not sound a lot but if your benefit income is £75 a week, £25 is quite a big chunk of money.
“We know from talking to people on benefits that after paying their tax and utilities and rent they might be looking at £30 a week to live on. If they are paying an extra £25 a week as a result of living in the private rented sector then that’s actually creating a level of destitution that’s quite frightening.”
Last week Theresa May announced £2bn to build new “affordable” homes in England. Under the plan, housing associations, councils and other organisations will be able to bid for the money to spend on new projects, starting from 2022.
But Leigh Pearce, chief executive of the Nationwide Foundation, said that the government needed to examine the role of the private rented sector, too.
“We need a fundamental rethink about who private renting is for and a comprehensive strategy to ensure it is fit for purpose, to ensure that everyone in this country has a home they can thrive in.
“This includes addressing the really important question about what is expected of the private rented sector, including who it can and should provide homes for, and how it sits alongside other housing tenures.”
“The number of secret reviews carried out by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) into deaths linked to benefit claims appears to have doubled in the last two years, according to figures the information watchdog has forced the government to release.
The figures relate to the number of internal process reviews (IPRs), investigations conducted by the department into deaths and other serious and complex cases that have been linked to DWP activity.
They show that, from April 2016 to June 2018, DWP panels carried out 50 IPRs, including 33 involving the death of a benefit claimant, or roughly 1.27 death-related IPRs a month.
DWP figures previously obtained by Disability News Service (DNS) show that, between October 2014 and January 2016, there were nine IPRs involving a death, or about 0.6 a month.
These figures are only approximate, because the information about IPRs (previously known as peer reviews) provided by DWP through freedom of information responses does not provide precise dates for when each of them took place.
But they do appear to show a clear and significant increase since early 2016 in the number of IPRs carried out following deaths linked by DWP to its own activity.
They also appear to show a return to the kind of frequency of reviews related to deaths of claimants that were seen between February 2012 and October 2014, when there were 49 such reviews at a rate of about 1.5 a month, at a time when research and repeated personal testimonies showed the coalition’s social security cuts and reforms were causing severe harm and distress to claimants.
The new figures also show that 19 of the deaths in the last two years involved a claimant viewed as “vulnerable”, while six of the IPRs (and four deaths) related to a claimant of the government’s new and much-criticised universal credit (see separate story).
John McArdle, co-founder of Black Triangle, said ministers “always get up at the despatch box and say they are continually improving the system. This proves that to be false.
“Universal credit should be scrapped, sanctions should be scrapped and the government should call off the dogs, because it is leading to people’s deaths.”
McArdle said that if there was a tragedy involving the deaths of 33 people in a train crash there would be an independent inquiry into what went wrong.
But because these deaths were happening in the social security system, he said, no such public inquiry would take place.
He added: “It just shows a callous disregard for the lives of the poorest and most vulnerable people in society.”
A DWP spokeswoman declined to say whether the figures showed that DWP’s treatment of vulnerable and other benefit claimants had not improved significantly since 2012 and had worsened in the last two years.
She also declined to say if DWP was concerned that there had already been four IPRs following the death of a universal credit claimant, even though only a small number of people are currently claiming UC. … “
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/active/11527430/HTML-Constituency-Safe-Seats.html
* not updated recently but if anything it is more marginal!
For the first time next year in May 2019 , Cranbrook will be electing three district councillors to serve on East Devon District council. This happens only once every four years.
Elected councillors serve on committees such as planning, housing and scrutiny.
Councillors are paid for their time (from at least £4360 per year plus expenses):
Click to access members-allowances-2017-18.pdf
You may feel that you have a natural affinity for the ruling block on the council – Conservatives or the other party represented at EDDC, Lib Dems. Conservatives currently hold 36 of the 58 seats, Lib Dems hold 6 seats.
But what if you feel that party politics (following the orders of your national party at such a local level) is not for you?
The next biggest group after Conservatives is independent councillors. They currently hold 16 seats. There is also an Independent East Devon Alliance councillor (Martin Shaw – Seaton and Colyton) at Devon County Council but their elections do not take place until 2022.
Some Independent councillors at East Devon (10 of them) belong to the East Devon Alliance.
How come independent councillors can be in an alliance?
Well, on all matters EDA are always totally independent and free to vote however they wish – there is no Whip as there is for a political party (though, by an anomaly of the electoral system, EDA has no alternative but to register as a political party for elections because the electoral system has not moved with the times!).
EDA councillors do though share common values – a committment to accountability, scrutiny and transparency in all council business and fight hard for these values for which they find it useful to be a group supportive of each other, while maintaining their independence. They also help each other in practical ways – canvassing, leaflet distribution, advice, etc.
If you think you would like to be a councillor, check out:
https://www.gov.uk/government/get-involved/take-part/become-a-councillor
If, after reading it, you like the idea of being an Independent East Devon Alliance councillor, contact the group at:
http://www.eastdevonalliance.org.uk/admin/contact-us/
or visit their Facebook page.
(East Devon Watch is supportive of East Devon Alliance but independent in its own views)
“It’s beginning to dawn on many UK farmers that the British government might not be quite so clued up as they had been led to believe. Not only do they now doubt that the current levels of subsidies they receive will continue post-Brexit, they also worry that their needs for seasonal workers to pick vegetables and soft fruit have not been fully understood.
The latest cause for alarm has been a video produced by the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) to promote its vision for post-Brexit agriculture.
It’s all very nostalgically rustic, with fields of barley rippling in the wind and glorious sunsets. A vision of mellow fruitfulness. Except for one thing. Some sections of it were filmed overseas.
As the magazine Farmers’ Weekly has observed, the scene in which Defra promise that farmers can expect less red tape was actually footage of an inspector visiting a Slovenian cattle shed, while the section on British farmers being rewarded for improving air and water quality was filmed on a German farm. To complete the hat-trick of errors, the part where Defra promise kick-backs for farmers who try to prevent climate change was accompanied by a framer planting a Bonsai tree.
We pay these people.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/sep/21/theresa-may-memorabilia-why-not-now-may-be-her-time
“Cornwall to cut hundreds of jobs in bid to save £80m and avoid Northants-style disaster:
However, the proposed cuts are only the equivalent of 388 full-time jobs.
According to a report ahead of the council’s Cabinet meeting today, the amount of jobs to be cut will reduce to 167 after mitigations such as reducing the amount spent on agency staff.
It is not yet clear where in the council’s services the jobs will be cut from, but the report noted that workforce reductions will be delivered in line with the Public Sector Equality Duty, the Councils Equality of Opportunity Policy and Organisational Change Toolkits and guidance.
The report also said that, as funding from central government continues to fall and demand for public services increases, the council must find a further £77m of savings over the next four years on top of the £300m of savings it has already delivered.
Cornwall Council has seen significant cuts to its central grant funding since austerity began in 2010, according to the report. There has been a reduction of about 40% from 2009-10 to 2018-19, during which time £300m in savings have been made.
“Whilst the council is in a sound financial position, with a strong track record of delivering its budgets supported by reserves, it cannot continue to deliver the savings required year on year and deliver a balanced budget without impacting upon the delivery of services,” the report warned.
The report even went as far as pointing to recent events in Northamptonshire, Somerset and East Sussex to illustrate the challenges facing local government, particularly for those local authorities responsible for providing social care.
“Cornwall Council does not want to face the position currently faced by these authorities of only providing services at the statutory minimum,” it concluded.”
Will the number of extra houses predicated for the Greater Exeter area (57,000] be reduced in line with these new findings? Of course not – develipers rule, OK!
“There are likely to be 1.4 million fewer households in England by 2041 than the government originally thought, a forecast that economists warned yesterday could have a big impact on housebuilding targets.
The Office for National Statistics said that the number of households in England was projected to grow by 159,000 a year, from 22.9 million in 2016 to 26.9 million by 2041.
The figures are used by the government to work out future housing needs and have been a key reason for its target of building 250,000 to 300,000 homes a year.
This is the first year that the projections have been calculated by the ONS rather than by a government department.
A large proportion of the growth will come from the rising elderly population. Households headed by someone aged 65 years and over are set to account for 88 per cent of total growth between 2016 and 2041. The highest growth is set to take place in London and the lowest in the northeast.
However, while this overall 17 per cent increase in households may seem large, it is significantly smaller than the projection made in 2014. Then, the government said that there would be an extra 210,000 households a year in England, resulting in 28 million homes by 2041.
Bidwells, a property consultancy, said that the latest projections would lead to a dramatic drop in the required number of homes in England.
Ian Mulheirn, director of consulting at Oxford Economics, said that the drop in projections demonstrated that there were several myths around Britain’s housing shortage and argued that it was not necessary to build 300,000 homes a year.
“Over the last 20 years, the various housing departments have used a methodology to predict household need that was flawed,” he said. “It predicted that a significantly higher number of households would form and it was consistently shown to be incorrect at each census point.
“The ONS has changed the methodology and if we had used their figures over the last 20 years we wouldn’t have this figure of extremely high housing need being quoted everywhere.”
Previous projections made by the government were based on census data starting in 1971, which showed household sizes steadily shrinking as more people chose to live alone or to have smaller families. But this trend stopped around 2001, which is when the ONS is now basing its projections from.
The latest figures were disputed, however. Matthew Spry, senior director at Lichfields, a property consultancy, said: “The number of households that have formed can only ever match the number of dwellings that there are for people to live in. Statistically a household cannot form if it doesn’t have an extra house to form into.”
The ONS has also made a new assumption for net migration. It is now projected to be 152,000 a year from mid-2023 onwards. The 2014 projection had assumed 170,500 a year.
Joanna Harkrader, of the Office for National Statistics, said that the slower growth reflected “lower projections of the population — notably assumptions around future births, how long we will live and migration — and more up-to-date figures about living arrangements, such as living with parents or cohabiting.”
Source: Times (pay wall)
East Devon Watch 