Latest research shows which parts of Devon are set to be experiencing high rates of infection when lockdown ends on December 2.
Paul Greaves www.devonlive.com
According to Imperial College London’s research infection rates will remain high in almost all parts of the county.
Red Zones on their map project which local authority areas will be Covid hotpots with more than 100 cases per week.
It is those areas that are likely to face the toughest levels of restrictions.
In our region, there is a 99 per cent probability that North Devon will have more than 100 cases per week by December 2.
East Devon (98 per cent); Torridge (94 per cent); Torbay (92 per cent) follow close behind.
England’s lockdown is set to end on December 2 and will be replaced by a tiered system of restrictions, according to the Government.
The entire UK is working on a joint approach to rules for Christmas – with speculation bans on indoor gathering and limits on the number of people who meet could be lifted.
SAGE experts say for every day the rules are eased the country would need five days of ‘lockdown’ to bring the virus back under control.
Researchers define a hotspot as a local authority where there are more than 50 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 of the population per week. See the map here.
All local authority areas of Devon have a greater than 80 per cent probability of having more than 50 cases by December 2.
If the definition of a hotpost is upped to 100 cases per 100,000, then only Teignbridge has a probability of less than 50 per cent (43).
South Hams (88 per cent); West Devon (80 per cent); Mid Devon (85 per cent) and Exeter (78 per cent) complete the county.
Although the rates appear high the infection rates in Devon and the South West are projected to be lower than most other parts of the country – a picture consistent with infection rates throughout the health crisis.
In England, Hull, Swale, Hartlepool, East Lindsey, Dudley and Stoke-on-Trent are predicted to have some of the highest infection rates.
Just under 300 local authorities have an 80 per cent or greater chance of being a hotspot on December 2, according to the study.