“We got the big calls right” – Boris Johnson 19 January 

A phrase often repeated by Helen Hurford who failed to hang on to the “safe” seat of Tiverton and Honiton.

So why is our economy tanking? – Owl

“The UK is on course to be the worst performing developed world economy this year after being hit with inflationary pressures that will drive up prices more than in neighbouring economies in Europe and the US.”

Doesn’t look as if it will come good before the next election either.

[The general claim of getting the big calls right has always been contentious even with regard to the handling of the pandemic see www.theguardian.com ]

Mehreen Khan www.thetimes.co.uk

UK economic growth slowed at the start of the year amid mounting fears that the economy will tip into recession by the end of 2022.

Official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) maintained an initial estimate of 0.8 per cent growth in the first three months of the year, down from 1.3 per cent in the previous quarter and in line with estimates. Year-on-year growth was 8.7 per cent, also in line with initial estimates from the ONS.

The GDP figures mean that the UK economy has just surpassed its pre-pandemic peak but growth is on course to shrink in the second quarter after a monthly GDP contraction of 0.3 per cent was recorded in April.

Economists widely expect that a combination of higher national insurance contributions, additional bank holidays over the Jubilee weekend and climbing inflation will cause growth to turn negative in three months to June, the first quarterly GDP fall since the start of last year.

The ONS said that IT, transport and manufacturing were the main drivers of economic growth in the first quarter. Rising inflation meant, however, that households’ real disposable income fell by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter, the fourth consecutive quarterly decline. Consumer price inflation has hit 9.1 per cent and will peak at above 11 per cent in October, according to the Bank of England, driven mainly by the rising cost of energy and food.

The UK is on course to be the worst performing developed world economy this year after being hit with inflationary pressures that will drive up prices more than in neighbouring economies in Europe and the US.

Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, repeated warnings this week that households were facing sharp falls in real incomes, a factor that will depress growth for the next three years. The Bank expects UK GDP to remain stagnant until 2024.

“Our latest estimate for economic growth in the first quarter is unrevised as a whole, showing the UK continued to recover from the pandemic,” Darren Morgan, director for economist statistics at the ONS, said. “Both household incomes and spending rose in cash terms in the first quarter, leaving the rate of saving unchanged. However, once taking account of inflation, incomes fell again, for the fourth consecutive quarter.”

One thought on ““We got the big calls right” – Boris Johnson 19 January 

  1. Could it be lack of business acumen in the Cabinet? City types are glorified gamblers. Journalists notorious for lack of forward planning as they do everything last minute. Those in the cabinet not self made have married money and Conmections. No one with any grasp of managing budgets let alone the economy.

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