A professor nicknamed the “Mystic Meg of political science” after accurately predicting the result of the confidence vote in Boris Johnson has forecast the prime minister will be out within six months.

Matthew Weaver www.theguardian.com 

Prof Jon Tonge , who teaches British politics at the University of Liverpool, is kicking himself for not betting on a contest he so accurately forecast.

In a tweet posted 58 minutes before the result was announced, Tonge correctly predicted 211 MPs or 59% would back Johnson. He also predicted that 147 or 41% would rebel. This turned out to be only one out because one more MP than expected took part in the vote.

Tonge now reckons Johnson will be out within months. Speaking to the Guardian he said: “I’d be surprised that if he was still prime minister in the autumn. I would say six months, but if anyone can tough it out it is Johnson.”

He added: “This is the political escapologist of political escapologists. The difficulty he’s got is that the privileges committee won’t pull any punches in its view about whether he misled parliament. And that will probably do for him.”

Tonge has been lauded overnight for his uncanny expertise but also inundated with requests for predictions of lottery numbers, horse racing and even the outcome of Love Island.

He responded by tweeting: “Thanks for very kind comments re VONC forecast. Main items: didn’t have a bet (sobs); you really don’t want my racing tips; Love Island? Liam or Gemma. Will post lottery numbers when rollover. As sceptical other half said though, ‘first time you’ve been right since marrying me’.”

He told the Guardian: “I do quite a bit of political betting, but ironically, I didn’t bet last night because I was busy trying to work out the result. So it is slightly bittersweet.”

Tonge’s prediction was no fluke. Last month he was almost as accurate at calling the outcome of the Northern Ireland assembly vote.

He recalled: “I said Sinn Féin would get 26 seats and they got 27. I said the DUP would get 24 seats and they got 25.” In 2017 assembly election he was also only one seat out and pointed out that Northern Ireland election is much harder to predict because of the single transferrable voting system.

He said: “Last night was more much more straightforward a contest but I do wish I’d had a bet.”

Tonge said he initially expected Johnson to match the performance of his predecessor. He said: “At the start of the day, I was thinking the result would be virtually the same as the no confidence vote in Theresa May. But during the day, it became clear that the level of opposition was going to be greater. I did wonder how low to go. I hovered around 58%/42% but in then end went for 59%/41%.

He added: “It was educated guesswork based upon the 2019 intake and basic loyalty versus declared pledges against him. You’ve got Covid lockdown sceptics who turned against him, hardcore remainers who never never liked him. But the rest were quite difficult because there’s no great great ideological rupture here.”

Tonge admits to a feeling of professional pride in his prediction.

“It gives you a nice warm feeling,” he said. But he is also annoyed that underestimated the size of the rebellion by one MP. “I am irritated because it would have been nice to have got it spot on,” he said.

However, Tonge’s was not the only correct prediction. In Westminster, as the Tory minister Greg Hands pointed out on Monday night after the vote, the Parliament Square bus stop called it just right.

“I don’t think I’d recognise the new candidate, Helen thingy, if she walked past me. She’s made no effort with the [Conservative] Club. We’ve had no leaflets or posters delivered and as far as I can see the party is doing its best to hide her from the voters because its scared of what she might actually say.”

(She’s the one next to Alison Hernandez – Owl)

By David Parsley inews.co.uk

Conservative voters in Tiverton and Honiton are torn on whether Boris Johnson is an electoral asset or liability ahead of the by-election on 23 June.

The resignation of Conservative MP Neil Parish after he was caught watching pornography on his phone in the House of Commons has thrown this sleepy Devon constituency into the national spotlight.

Parish left behind a 24,000 majority, and despite coming in third at the 2019 General Election the Liberal Democrats are hopeful of pulling off their third big mid-term by-election swing in a year.

Nick Sleeman, bar manager at the Honiton Conservative Club, has had enough of the Prime Minister’s antics and will be voting Liberal Democrat in a little of two weeks’ time.

“I’m definitely voting Lib Dem because I’ve had enough of Boris’ lies,” said Mr Sleeman. “He should go.”

However, even if Mr Johnson is forced out of office Mr Sleeman has another reason not to vote Conservative for the first time he can remember. He’s not a fan of the local Tory candidate Helen Hurford, the town’s current deputy mayor and owner of a beauty salon just in Honiton.

“I don’t think I’d recognise the new candidate, Helen thingy, if she walked past me. She’s made no effort with the [Conservative] Club. We’ve had no leaflets or posters delivered and as far as I can see the party is doing its best to hide her from the voters because its scared of what she might actually say.”

He is just one of many lifelong Tory voters in the town who are switching their allegiance to the Liberal Democrats this time around.

Gerry Mills is secretary of the club, and like his colleague Mr Sleeman, is disillusioned with the lack of profile of his Conservative candidate.

“I’m the secretary of the Honiton Conservative Club, and I’m probably not going to vote for our candidate at the by-election. I doubt I’ll vote Lib Dem either, and I’ll probably just stay at home.

Another lifelong Tory voter Carole Corfield is more definitive on the position of Mr Johnson. She will only vote Conservative at the by-election if he is no longer in power.

“I voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done,” said Mrs Corfield. “But he’s lied to us all so much now that I can’t vote for him.

“I’ll go Lib Dem this time unless Boris has gone. I think I’d vote Conservative if there was pretty much any other leader than him there, but I won’t while he’s still in power.”

In contrast to the low key Conservative campaign in Tiverton and Honiton the Liberal Democrats have a big presence in the constituency as the party attempts to overturn the 24,000 Tory majority (Photo: David Parsley)

While the view among Honiton Tories looks bad for Mr Johnson, the view among Tory voters in Tiverton appears more positive.

In the Tiverton Constitutional Club Philip Gibbs does not believe there is a better Tory MP to occupy No 10 Downing Street.

“He’s the best man for the job,” he said. “I can’t think of anyone who could replace him.”

Fellow Tory voter Henry Middleton added “we should keep him because he’s fun,” a sentiment shared by his friend George Williams.

Outside the Constitutional Club there is a whiff of rebellion among the Conservative voters of Tiverton.

Barry Tretherway will be switching his vote to the Lib Dems later this month.

“How can we trust Boris anymore after all the lies,” he said. “Plus, we have a candidate I know nothing about because we’ve never heard her speak.”

A haunted-looking Boris Johnson stares out from the front pages of many of the papers after a dramatic night of Conservative party bloodletting at Westminster.

Martin Farrer www.theguardian.com 

The prime minister is shown being driven back from the Commons to Downing Street after he won a Tory no-confidence vote in his leadership by 211 to 148.

Although he called the victory decisive and vowed to “bash on” in government, the reaction of some Tory-supporting newspapers suggests he will not be able to draw a line under his Partygate woes any time soon.

“A wounded victor”, says the Times, alongside the picture of Johnson that seems eerily similar to the famous one of Margaret Thatcher being driven away from Downing Street after she was ousted in a Tory party coup.

The paper adds that it was a worse than expected result for Johnson and throws up another parallel with Thatcher by noting that the same proportion of MPs voted against her as against her current scandal-plagued successor. She resigned two days later.

The Daily Telegraph’s front page headline says “Hollow victory tears Tories apart” and carries a secondary headline saying Johnson’s authority has been “crushed” as rebels circle to finish him off.

 Photograph: The Daily Telegraph

The paper’s columnists line up to give a damning verdict on Johnson’s prospects for leading the party into the future with Tim Stanley declaring simply: “The PM is toast.”

The Financial Times also suggests that the prime minister is badly damaged by the vote with its lead headline saying “Johnson wounded in confidence vote as 41% of Tory MPs rebel”.

The Mirror proclaims “Party’s over, Boris” and says that the prime minister has suffered a “brutal attack” by his own side “and is warned that he will be out in a year”.

The Guardian’s splash says “PM clinging to power after vote humiliation”, with columnist Martin Kettle writing: “He is irreparably damaged. Politicians don’t recover from such things.”

The i’s front page says “Wounded Johnson in peril” and inside its political editor, Paul Waugh, says Johnson is the “sick man of Downing Street, infecting all those around him”.

The Metro also thinks it’s time for Johnson to go: “The party is over Boris”.

Tomorrow’s Paper Today 📰

THE PARTY IS OVER BORIS 🎉

🔴He survives confidence ballot…but blow as 41% say it’s time for him to go

🔴 Fears he is left a lame-duck premier like predecessor may ahead of crucial by-elections pic.twitter.com/7fYT62cZOJ

— Metro (@MetroUK) June 6, 2022

However, the prime minister still has some defiant backing from his cheerleaders in the national papers. Reflecting the concern of some Tories that dumping Johnson is electoral suicide, the Mail has mocked up a red button marked “Lib Dems Labour SNP” and says “MPs hit the self-destruct button by opening door to smirking Starmer’s coalition of chaos”. Underneath, its main headline says “Boris vows: I’ll bash on”.

 Photograph: Mail

The Express also tries to strike an upbeat note with a headline which reads: “Defiant and unbowed … Boris: I’ll lead party to victory”.

The Sun’s splash is “Night of the blond knives”, saying that Johnson has been “stabbed in the back by 148 MPs”.

Tomorrow’s front page: New photo of Lilibet celebrating her first birthday released by Harry and Meghan // Boris Johnson narrowly survives a confidence vote as 148 Tory rebels stabbed him in the back pic.twitter.com/sUnTO3b7zE

— The Sun (@TheSun) June 6, 2022

In Scotland the Herald says “Wounded and weakened, but Johnson vows to stay in office”, while the Press and Journal says “Boris body blow despite winning confidence vote”.

 Photograph: The Herald

The Record opts to throw Johnson’s election-winning slogan back at him with its front page headline: “Get Borexit done”

The Northern Echo says “Carry on Boris (for now)“, while the Newcastle Journal asks “Is he on his way out?”.

From a Correspondent:

Dear Owl,

I thought the attached would look good gracing lamp posts in the forthcoming by-elections.

Regards.

“Over-investment in domestic property and under-investment in almost everything else”

Larry Elliot, writing in the Guardian, reviews our economic ups and downs throughout the Queen’s 70 year reign. His concluding paragraphs are worth reading. 

70 years on and UK is still mistakenly looking for economic miracle cure 

Larry Elliott www.theguardian.com 

Getting the big picture right – setting interest rates at the right level and having a competitive pound – clearly matters but so does getting the small stuff right. Over the years, too little attention has been paid to the supply side of the economy, in part because the long lead times for policies to work sit uneasily with the demands of the electoral cycle for instant results.

The message from other – more successful – economies is clear and has been clear for the past 70 years. Identify the structural weaknesses of the economy, which in Britain’s case includes over-investment in domestic property and under-investment in almost everything else. Put in place the right policies to remedy the problems. Then stay the course.

Decision time for Simon Jupp but not Neil Parish as, for some reason, he is no longer an MP – Owl

The chairman of the 1922 Committee of Conservative MPs has confirmed a vote of confidence in Boris Johnson will be held by Conservative MPs from 18:00 to 20:00 BST.

Sir Graham Brady told reporters that the vote was triggered after at least 54 Conservative MPs asked for it.

No 10 says Mr Johnson “welcomes the opportunity to make his case to MPs”, and that tonight’s vote is “a chance to end months of speculation and allow the government to draw a line and move on”.

According to reports in the Independent: James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said the Tories could also face defeat in Devon, with focus groups suggesting that even Leave voters are now ready to help the Liberal Democrats overturn a 24,000 majority in a by-election triggered by MP Neil Parish’s resignation after he admitted watching pornography in the Commons.

“Partygate has changed everything, and that trust has now completely gone in Boris Johnson,” said Mr Johnson. “Also that feeling that he is strong and can get things done has gone. I think these by-elections, and the polls, and the local election results show that Boris Johnson is no longer the asset he once was.”

Also critics have been circulating a briefing paper among Tory MPs over the bank holiday weekend, warning that 160 or more of them could lose their seats in a “landslide” defeat if he leads them into the next election.

Read it on twitter

Pollution warnings have been issued for two Devon beaches by an environmental charity. According to the Surfers’ Against Sewage water quality map, sewers have been emptied into the water at Salcombe North Sands and in Seaton.

Anita Merritt www.devonlive.com 

Over the course of the long bank holiday weekend, visitors have been flocking to Devon’s coastlines and river banks during the four-day break. However, the change in weather has not seen so many venture into the water yesterday and today with yellow thunderstorm warnings having been issued by the Met Office.

Surfers’ Against Sewage puts warnings in place on beaches where a sewer has been ‘discharged’ within 48 hours, often due to heavy rainfall causing an overflow of the combined sewage and run-off system. The Cornwall-based charity’s campaign against water pollution has led to the creation of the warning system which advises when swimmers and surfers should stay out of the water to avoid getting sick or ingesting sewage.

These are the alerts where the sewage is coming from today (Sunday, June 5), according to Surfer’s Against Sewage:

Salcombe North Sands

There is a sewer flow discharging into the stream directly on the beach (Collaton Stream) and another that discharges into the Salcombe Estuary offshore of the beach.

The beach warnings in Devon (Image: Surfers’ Against Sewage)

Seaton (Devon)

The Seaton Sewage Treatment Works discharges disinfected sewage into the River Axe Estuary two and a half kilometres from the bathing water.

Over the jubilee weekend, Surfers Against Sewage has relaunched its Safer Seas & Rivers Service as new data shows the public are scared to swim outside for fear of dirty waters. The public health information, provided as real-time alerts straight to the user’s phone, helps beachgoers make an informed decision on how, when and where to use the UK’s beautiful beaches and rivers to avoid any potentially harmful pollution coming from sewer overflows and farming run-off.

The charity claims water companies discharged raw sewage into UK waters over 370,000 times in 2021 alone. It says it demonstrates how important real-time pollution alerts are in helping the public dodge poor water quality and have the cleanest and safest experience possible.

The Safer Seas & Rivers Service app – already a trusted source of water quality information for its 88,000 subscribers – enables users to see where untreated sewage has been discharged in real-time. The platform allows the public to check water quality at over 400 bathing locations across England, Scotland, and Wales, submit reports of illness suffered after time spent in the water, and take direct action by contacting their MP and the CEO of their local water company to demand an urgent end to sewage pollution.

In the last 2 years, 640 reports of illness have been submitted through the app, ranging from ear and eye infections to gastrointestinal and diarrhoea.

The Bible reading chosen for Boris Johnson to read at the Platinum Jubilee celebrations in St Paul’s Cathedral was from Philippians 4. 4-9 . This included the following sentiments:

“…whatever is true, whatever is honourable, whatever is just, whatever is pure, whatever is pleasing, whatever is commendable, if there is any excellence and if there is anything worthy of praise, think about these things.”

From a correspondent:

The combined roles of Chief Executive Officer, Head of paid services (Human Resources in corporate speak)with that of electoral “Returning Officer”, places a lot of power in one pair of hands. 

Let us review some recent history of leadership in EDDC.

The EDDC Chief Executive has been hauled in front of a Commons Committee in 2014; corporate management severely admonished by an Information Tribunal Judge in 2015; and auditors, in 2016, found weaknesses in accounting for S106 payments. All this raises questions about the oversight and accountability of senior management at EDDC. 

In 2014 Mark Williams was called to the Commons Committee to explain how 6,000 (typo corrected Owl) voters came to be missing from the electoral roll. 

Judge Kennedy, in his Decision Notice of May 2015  on the Information Tribunal concerning EDDC’s refusal to release five documents related to the Knowle move, concluded that EDDC had: “displayed discourtesy and unhelpfulness” throughout. 

Specific criticism included: “Correspondence on behalf of the Council, rather than ensuring the Tribunal was assisted in its function, was at times discourteous and unhelpful including the statement that we had the most legible copies possible. A statement, which was clearly inaccurate…” 

(During the Tribunal hearing the then deputy Chief Executive, Richard Cohen, also made the extraordinary admission that he had not given an original version of a document to the Overview and Scrutiny Committee but an “amended” one.)

A freedom of information (FOI) request in 2016 concerning S106 arrangements and payments between 2014 and 2016 (as Cranbrook development was underway), revealed EDDC held no information on whether there had been any breach of obligation on the part of developers or how much money was owed, possibly going back much earlier. 

In a subsequent formal complaint to the newly appointed external auditors, KPMG found, after sampling cases over just one year, rather than any forensic analysis over many, that there had been a quarter of a million pounds understatement in the past year’s accounts. KPMG concluded: “Given the weaknesses identified in the Council’s controls, it is possible that understatements of a similar scale or even larger could be apparent at any point in time.”

Then there are examples of how thin-skinned and dismissive Mark Williams can be in dealing with members of the public. However irritating members of the public may be, it is surely inexcusable for a senior public servant to behave in such a way. Using this tone, the Chief Executive does not come across as  impartial. Many of us have had similar experiences when trying to make a complaint. 

Where are the checks and balances on this power?

A job description was revealed through a 2014 FOI request. Compared to other local authorities it is a bit thin. The key point is that nowhere does it specify who the CEO is personally accountable to.  A recent online search for a more up to date job description proved fruitless. 

These historic events are disturbing, demonstrating an executive making significant mistakes and seemingly impervious to criticism. It is in this context that the Tories lost control in 2019 and “New Guard” took over in 2020.

Where does the buck stop? How do you hold the CEO to account?

Boris Johnson faces the task of persuading Conservative MPs he can still lead his party into the next general election, despite being booed by the crowd outside the Queen’s platinum jubilee service.

Adam Forrest www.independent.co.uk 

In a new humiliation for the prime minister, desperately trying to stave off a no-confidence vote, he was met with a loud chorus of boos, jeers and whistles as he walked up the steps of St Paul’s Cathedral with his wife Carrie on Friday.

BBC presenter Jane Hill noted that there was a “substantial amount” of booing as Mr Johnson entered the cathedral. The PM was also heckled as he left the service – with one person heard shouting “f*** off Boris”.

A Labour source told The Independent: “The boos for the prime minister will have been a rude awakening to those Tory MPs who have been in denial about the public’s anger at the industrial-scale law-breaking they’ve seen in No 10.”

It comes as Downing Street is said to be preparing for a “charm offensive” of wavering rebel MPs in the hope they can be won over and a leadership vote avoided.

Around 30 backbenchers have publicly called for the prime minister to resign, and committed rebels believe they are close to reaching the threshold of 54 no-confidence letters needed for a leadership ballot.

No 10 officials have drawn up a list of 64 Tory MPs they believe can still be won over, including senior figures such as Theresa May, Tom Tugendhat and Julian Smith, according to The Telegraph.

Meanwhile, rebel Tories MPs shared fears about the timing of a push to remove Mr Johnson, with some expressing doubts that next week is the right moment for a vote of no-confidence to be triggered.

One Tory MP keen to see Mr Johnson replaced has urged colleagues to withdraw their no-confidence letters to prevent a vote happening “by accident” at the start of next week, according to The Guardian.

Rebels have previously told The Independent that they fear a confidence vote could be triggered too soon “accidentally” – allowing Mr Johnson a good chance of staying in power for another 12 months.

Tory rules mean that a majority of the party’s MPs – 180 – would have to vote against Mr Johnson in order to spark a contest to find his replacement. If the PM survives, he is protected from another vote for a year.

Anxious anti-Johnson backbenchers are said to fear that potential leadership candidates have not had enough time to mobilise and encourage wavering MPs to look beyond Mr Johnson.

Some believe the period after two by-elections on 23 June would present the best chance of defeating the PM in a confidence vote.

Andrew Bridgen – the Tory MP who recently resubmitted his letter after withdrawing it at the outbreak of the Ukraine war – reportedly predicted in a Tory WhatsApp group that No 10 would be told on Monday that 54 letters had already gone in to 1992 Committee chair Sir Graham Brady.

Tory MP Mark Francois, who has not called for Mr Johnson to go, suggested the PM still had work to do to convince many of his wavering backbenchers that things will change after Partygate.

“We will come back on Monday and colleagues will ask, ‘Who is going to take responsibility for this?’” he told Times Radio on Friday. “Having spoken to colleagues in the past few days, the mood is, they want to know, ‘Who is going to carry the can?’”

It comes as the head of the Grassroots Conservatives activist group called on Mr Johnson to resign over the Partygate scandal, saying the PM would “put off voters” at the next general election.

Ed Costelloe told The Telegraph that Mr Johnson had not been “wholly honest” about the law-breaking gatherings in Downing Street. “If he had any sense he would resign before he was pushed.”

From a correspondent;

Surely the job of a Chief Executive requires him or her to be neutral and supportive of whatever shade of council exists, and particularly to assist a new majority group with few experienced councillors to find its feet – in the best interest of the district.

It appears that Mr Williams was unable to make this adjustment or to consider any change in his former allegiances. One must therefore ask why this was and why he stood back and allowed the situation with his officer to first of all be hidden from the new council and then to do nothing helpful as the situation was allowed to deteriorate under his watch. Remember, this is a CEO who has a legal qualification (albeit many years ago). He must have had to use his legal knowledge on many similar issues in the past – though we never seem to have heard of them.

As for his time “wasted” do remember that, some years ago, he was able to run two councils (East Devon and South Somerset) on a 50/50 basis with no obvious time management problems. Though South Somerset did cancel the arrangement early without saying why.

In any other kind of organisation this person would almost certainly have been relieved of his post. Alas, as we have seen with other political situations very recently, the Chief Executive reports to – the Chief Executive and the Chief Executive decides whether or not he should be punished. Not very transparent …..

[Likely leaker, in advance of the scrutiny committee meeting, is either a councillor, possibly on the committee, or a senior officer – take your pick! – Owl]  

More than half the people who have gone wild swimming or tried water sports in British seas and rivers have fallen ill, a survey has found.

Ben Webster www.thetimes.co.uk 

The report commissioned by the charity Surfers Against Sewage (SAS) found that a fear of being exposed to contaminated water deterred 52 per cent of people from entering the water. Awareness of the threat has grown rapidly in the past year.

Of the 22 per cent that have tried wild swimming, surfing or other water sports, 55 per cent have fallen ill.

In the past two years, SAS has received more than 640 reports of illness, including ear and eye infections and diarrhoea, from people who have been in the sea or rivers.

The reports were submitted by the charity’s Safer Seas & Rivers Service, an app that delivers water quality alerts based on information from water companies about sewage discharges and Environment Agency forecasts of agricultural pollution.

Storm overflows operated by water companies resulted in 372,533 sewage spills last year in England and Wales, down from 403,171 in 2020. Water companies are allowed to release sewage in exceptional circumstances, such as after heavy rain, but last year 675 overflows spilt sewage 100 times or more.

More than half (55 per cent) of the 2,000 people surveyed said funding for improvements to sewage infrastructure to reduce pollution should come from water companies’ profits.

Susan Moate, 38, who swims in the River Ouse near her home in Lewes, East Sussex, said she became ill in 2020 with severe ear infections that her doctor attributed to swimming in the river.

“Since then I have avoided putting my head underwater when I swim, but I don’t want to give up altogether,” she said. “It’s such a shame so little is being done to combat sewage pollution.”

Matthew Harle, 29, an aeronautical engineer from Bristol, said he went surfing at Sandymouth Bay, Cornwall, in January and was violently sick that night. He believed the source of the infection was agricultural pollution.

The Environment Agency rates the bay as having “excellent” water quality. However, SAS said there was a loophole in the water regulations.

Hugo Tagholm, the chief executive of SAS, said: “The public are fearful about swimming due to the amount of raw sewage being discharged and believe the water industry must cut this crap.”

Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit plan to bring back imperial measurements is “complete and utter nonsense”, according to Asda chair Stuart Rose.

Adam Forrest www.independent.co.uk 

In a scathing attack, the Conservative peer said the push to boost the use of pounds, ounces and other outmoded weights and measures would only “add cost” and confusion to businesses.

“I’ve never heard such nonsense in my life,” Lord Rose told Times Radio on Thursday, branding it a “backwards” step aimed at pleasing nostalgic voters.

“I mean, we have got serious problems in the world and we’re now saying let’s go backwards. Does anybody in this country below the age of about 40 know how many ounces there are in a pound?” the Asda chief asked.

Lord Rose said the government was pushing ahead with the plan “just to actually please a small minority of people who hark for the past. It’s complete and utter nonsense and it will add cost to those people who have to put it into place.”

The former boss of Marks & Spencer added: “I am shocked. It’s one thing having a crown on your pint glass, which is a bit of fun and a bit of nostalgia. It’s quite another having a whole dual system of weights and measures.”

The government is set to consult industry on how to reintroduce imperial units in Britain after quitting the EU, with ministers expected to officially announce the move today to coincide with the Queen’s platinum jubilee.

The idea has already faced criticism from the Tory backbenches, with Rutland and Melton MP Alicia Kearns branding it “a nonsense”. Labour has accused Mr Johnson of trying to “weaponise nostalgia”.

Last week, Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis claimed voters and businesses would be “pleased” that the government was set to open the door to greater use of imperial units.

But the British Retail Consortium (BRC), the umbrella body representing the big supermarkets, has warned that the move could be “distracting” and costly at a time when food chiefs were trying to tackle inflationary pressures during the cost of living crisis.

Ministers have argued that it would give the likes of greengrocers and pub landlords greater choice over running their businesses, as well as bringing “national culture” back into shops.

Mr Lewis said that, while the policy was “light-hearted”, there were many people who “want to go back” to using pounds and ounces, and measures such as yards and miles.

The EU weights and measures directive came into force in 2000, with traders legally required to use metric units for sale by weight or the measure of fresh produce.

It remains legal to price goods in pounds and ounces, but they have to be displayed alongside the price in grams and kilograms.

The consultation, which is being coordinated by the department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), could change those stipulations, allowing traders to choose how they price fresh items.

The Independent understands that there will not be a move away from metric units, but the consultation will look at where it makes sense to incorporate or switch to imperial measurements such as feet and yards, and pints and gallons.

A Tory minister struggled to convert imperial measurements during an interview on Sky News earlier this week, despite Downing Street claiming the system is “universally understood”.

Arts minister Stephen Parkinson gave incorrect answers when Kay Burley asked him to convert ounces and grams into pounds.

The Conservative candidate for this month’s Tiverton and Honiton by-election has refused to say whether she would like the support of disgraced former MP Neil Parish.

Joe Ives, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk (Extract)

In an interview last week Mr Parish, who resigned in April after he admitted to watching pornography in the House of Commons, said he would be “very happy” to campaign for the Conservative candidate Helen Hurford if she wanted his help.

But Ms Hurford won’t say whether she would like his support.

Mr Parish has said he is willing to take as visible a role in the campaign as Ms Hurford and the Conservative party wish.

Right now, that appears to be nothing.

Voters on the streets of Honiton – part of the Tiverton and Honiton by-election – have told the Mirror how they are preparing to ditch the Tories.

The Tiverton and Honiton by-election is one of two crunch polls on June 23 that could decide Boris Johnson’s future – and if these voters are anything to go by, he should be very worried indeed.

Follow this link for details.

Update: Politico London Newsletter’s take on the Mirror interviews:

HONITON HORROR SHOW: The Mirror’s Ben Glaze has a strong piece from Honiton, the Lib Dem-facing by-election the Tories are staring down later this month. Glaze found that voters are deserting the Conservatives. Betting shop manager Julie Garland said: “I voted Tory before but I’m not voting Tory on June 23. I will read up on the others to see what they have got to offer.” And nursery assistant Naomi Bowman added: “Me and my mum have always voted Conservative but the way he has been lately we have changed our opinions — mainly because of the parties. And I was completely disgusted about Neil Parish watching pornography — it was outrageous. I think I will vote Lib Dem.”

Will the Conservatives lose the Tiverton and Honiton by-election?

Who will win the Tiverton and Honiton by-election? The seat, in Devon, is held by the Conservatives and its towns have voted Tory in every general election since the 1880s. It is now, however, being talked up as a probable gain for the Liberal Democrats — evidence that against a backdrop of partygate revelations and the cost-of-living crisis, no seat is safe for the Conservatives. Whether or not those predictions will be proved correct on 23 June is yet to be seen, but let’s talk about likelihoods for a moment.

Ben Walker sotn.newstatesman.com 

North Shropshire — held by Owen Paterson, the former Tory cabinet minister, until he resigned after a lobbying scandal — went Lib Dem on a significant swing in December 2021. I didn’t predict that: the seat voted Leave, has above average levels of deprivation and didn’t have much in the shape of a Lib Dem presence before the by-election. The timing proved excellent for an insurgent campaign, however, especially as the contest came just as partygate was beginning to grab the headlines. It was, in a way, the perfect storm. It showed that the Lib Dems, once confined to graduate-heavy Remainia in 2019, could win in leafy, Leave-voting, semi-deprived constituencies perceived to be left behind by the incumbent Conservatives — seats a world away from, say, Richmond Park in west London. My analysis was blown to bits.

As I say, North Shropshire didn’t have much in the shape of a Lib Dem ground campaign before the by-election, and that makes me somewhat sceptical that the party will be able to hold it come the next general. But Tiverton and Honiton does. In fact, while North Shropshire has had few close-run races over the decades, Tiverton and Honiton has had plenty. In 2021 local elections nearly 80 per cent of the wards in North Shropshire voted Conservative. In Tiverton and Honiton, in 2019, more than half the seats up voted Liberal Democrat or independent.

A proclivity to vote for alternative candidates, be they local independents or opposition parties, appears more evident in Tiverton and Honiton than it does in North Shropshire. This should favour the Lib Dems in this by-election, doubly so given the national mood music is more intense and despairing of No 10’s present occupant than it was in December 2021.

Tiverton and Honiton’s voters have form for opting for alternatives, and may just be as willing to vote Lib Dem in a by-election as, say, Richmond Park or South Cambridgeshire. The trouble for the Tories at present is not confined to Blue Wall or Red Wall: it’s everywhere, wall or not.