[Widely reported yesterday, Mr Thomas, new Chair of the Charity Commission, has resigned before starting the job (another one under the bus). Why was he given it in the first place?]

goodlawproject.org

When the Government announced that Martin Thomas was their preferred candidate for the new Chair of the Charity Commission, many people in the charity sector breathed a sigh of relief. This may have been premature. 

Mr Thomas had a low public profile and was not an obvious candidate to deliver on the former Culture Secretary’s promise to hire someone who would stop charities pursuing a “woke agenda”. 

His credentials suggested he had professional charity sector experience under his belt. Prior to being selected, Martin Thomas was Chair of the Board at two charities, Downside Up and the Forward Arts Foundation. Before that, he was the Chair at Women for Women International UK, which helps women survivors of war rebuild their lives. 

But all was not quite as it seemed. 

The Times has reported that Martin Thomas is understood to be ‘close friends’ with Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The pair studied Classics at Oxford University at the same time and Johnson is still a patron of Downside Up. In 2013, when Johnson was Mayor of London, Mr Thomas gifted him an antique Russian ‘Takema’ watch.  

Then things start to get worse.

We understand that three formal complaints were made against Mr Thomas while he was Chair at Women for Women International. The last of these was partly upheld and was the subject of a serious incident report to the Charity Commission in 2021. 

We’ve heard that, following the investigation into the 2021 complaint, the Board of Women for Women International had planned to ask Mr Thomas to step down as Chair immediately, but he resigned before they could. The first complaint, which was not upheld, concerned Mr Thomas sending an unsolicited photograph. He had intended to send it to one female employee, but accidentally sent it to another, and then asked her to forward it to its intended recipient, also female. 

Shocking behaviour, especially from the Chair of a women’s rights charity. The sort that might properly disqualify someone from chairing the Charity Commission.

How, despite all of this, did he come to be appointed? Was there political interference? Were references taken up from Women for Women International? Did anyone check with the Charity Commission about his record before appointing him as Chair?

What we’ve uncovered casts serious doubt on Mr Thomas’s suitability, and raises grave questions about the integrity of the process. These must be answered as soon as possible. 

This is not how public appointments should happen. We have written asking the Secretary of State to concede that the process leading to Martin Thomas’ appointment was deeply flawed. We’ve asked them to tell us whether the Prime Minister or his staff played any role in the recruitment process; to tell us whether the complaints from Women for Women International were disclosed by Mr Thomas as part of the interview and assessment process; and ultimately, to reconsider and withdraw Mr Thomas’ nomination to be Chair of the Commission. 

The independence of the Charity Commission is essential to the future of UK charities, which provide lifelines to countless people and marginalised groups. We will not stand by as its integrity is damaged by this appointment. 

Good Law Project only exists thanks to donations from people across the UK. If you’re in a position to support our work, you can do so here. 

goodlawproject.org 

A week since shocking stories first emerged of illegal gatherings in and around No 10 and still the Met Police won’t investigate. Would they be as shy had you or I broken the law? Look at the form they publish for gathering evidence on breaches of Coronavirus rules by normal people and you rather doubt it.

So why the difference?

We decided to cut through the nonsense and commission two of the country’s leading lawyers – top policing barrister Danny Friedman QC and leading authority on Covid regulations Adam Wagner – to advise on whether the Met Police refusal to investigate is unlawful. We are today publishing that advice in full.

Their view is that a policy of not investigating retrospective breaches is likely to be unlawful; a failure to publish the policy is likely to be unlawful; and a decision not to investigate based on an absence of evidence is also arguably unlawful.

We remain astonished at what looks, to us, like the Met’s willingness to tolerate conduct that undermines public health and erodes trust in the rule of law. In 1733 Dr Thomas Fuller wrote “Be you ever so high, the law is above you.” Those are fine words – and we think the Met should pay heed.

A week ago today we wrote to the Met telling them we intended to sue if they continued to refuse to uphold the law. They have two weeks to change their minds.

Good Law Project only exists thanks to donations from people across the UK. If you’re in a position to support our work, you can do so here.

Read it in the Mail on Sunday

New Allegra tape headache for Boris: No10 braces for fresh embarrassment amid fears ex-spokeswoman was questioned about the PM’s private life in ANOTHER excerpt from Partygate tape that could be screened in days

• Allegra Stratton’s now-infamous mock press conference was filmed in December last year
• It forced PM into humiliating Commons apology, led to Ms Stratton’s tearful doorstep resignation and contributed to loss of 23,000 Tory majority at Thursday’s North Shropshire by-election
• Former and current No 10 staff fear further damning tapes, including embarrassing material for PM, might also be in circulation
• Source told MoS that the recorded sessions included mock questions aimed at Ms Stratton referring to ‘mistresses’ and ‘love children’ of Mr Johnson

From led by Donkeys

Hello friends,

While most of us obeyed the rules and made sacrifices last winter, Boris Johnson’s Downing Street was holding raucous law-breaking parties. It’s an open and shut case, but the Metropolitan Police is refusing to investigate. The Met says there is an “absence of evidence.” That’s an absurd claim to make, so we took the evidence direct to Scotland Yard on a giant TV screen – with a voiceover that a lot of people found familiar.

There’s a blizzard of speculation about whether it’s the Superintendent Ted Hastings from Line of Duty. For operational reasons we can neither confirm nor deny it.

But that didn’t stop the Daily Star putting our protest on the front page this morning:

While GMB ran the film at 7am on national television:

The film has been shared over 150,000 times and viewed more than 8 million times across social media. Last night the Met put out a defensive statement which we think shows they’re under real pressure to reverse their absurd position.

As ‘Ted’ says, “Our leaders partied while families were separated and our citizens died in their thousands. Who exactly does the Metropolitan Police work for ma’am? Our citizens, or Boris Johnson?”

If you’ve not seen it yet, you can watch it on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube.

Thanks to everyone who has signed up to become a Led By Donkeys supporter. You make this important work possible.

Cheers,

Ben, James, Olly & Will x

Following the revolt by Simon Jupp and his like, how can Boris Johnson now introduce more restrictions, should that prove necessary?

Without commanding the confidence of a majority of Tory backbenchers, he would have to rely on the support of the Opposition. What would that do to his self-image?

Owl can’t see him acting decisively. We will all suffer the consequences.

Covid: More measures needed to limit hospitalisations – Sage scientists

By Jim Reed www.bbc.co.uk

More stringent restrictions need to be brought in “very soon” in England if ministers want to stop hospital admissions reaching 3,000 a day, the government’s scientific advisers say.

The BBC has seen leaked minutes of a meeting of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies held on Thursday.

The document says there are “many uncertainties” about the future path of hospitalisations linked to Omicron.

It comes as the UK’s four nations are to hold a Cobra meeting this weekend.

Timing of measures ‘crucial’

According to those leaked minutes, the Sage advisers say that without intervention measures beyond the Plan B rules currently in place, modelling indicates that hospital admissions could peak at “at least” 3,000 a day in England.

The number of people requiring treatment in hospital has been rising, with admissions being between 800 and 900 every day in the past week.

The current Plan B rules for England include Covid passes for certain events, face masks in more places and people being urged to work from home if they can.

The other nations of the UK had already brought in similar rules – and Scotland has gone further by asking people to limit social contact to three households at a time in the run-up to Christmas. Wales has also ordered nightclubs to close from 27 December.

The Sage minutes say: “If the aim is to reduce the levels of infection in the population and prevent hospitalisations reaching these levels, more stringent measures would need to be implemented very soon.”

The record of the meeting goes on to say that measures equivalent to those in place after Step Two or Step One of the roadmap in England, if enacted early enough, “could substantially reduce the peak in hospital admissions and infections compared with Plan B alone”.

Step One and Two of the roadmap for easing lockdown – which was in place in England in the Spring – banned indoor social contact and indoor hospitality. Step Three allowed six people, or two households, to meet indoors and indoor hospitality could reopen.

“The timing of such measures is crucial,” say the Sage minutes. “Delaying until 2022 would greatly reduce the effectiveness of such interventions and make it less likely that these would prevent considerable pressure on health and care settings.”

Sage meetings are designed to advise officials and ministers about the possible path of the pandemic in certain circumstances rather than offer up concrete predictions.

The Department of Health has been contacted for comment.

It comes as Omicron continues to spread across the UK – and is thought to now be the dominant variant in England and Scotland, replacing Delta.

On Friday the UK saw another record number of daily Covid cases for the third day in a row, with more than 93,000 infections announced.

But there was also a record 861,306 booster and third dose jabs announced – the highest daily total so far.

It means half of all UK adults had now received a booster jab, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said.

He later tweeted that a meeting of the government’s emergency committee Cobra will be held over the weekend with representatives from the devolved administrations.

Elsewhere, new research on Friday showed that a Covid booster shot would offer around 85% protection against severe illness from Omicron.

The protection is a bit less than vaccines gave against earlier versions of Covid – but it means the top-up dose should still keep many people out of hospital.

Across Europe, health officials are braced for a wave of infections. Additional restrictions were announced in Germany, the Irish Republic and the Netherlands on Friday as governments seek to stem the tide.

French Prime Minister Jean Castex warned that the Omicron variant is “spreading at lightning speed” in Europe and will likely become dominant in France by the start of next year.

On Friday, France imposed strict travel restrictions on those entering from the UK.

Conservative MPs have been taking out their frustration on England’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, for what they see as his promotion of “lockdown by stealth”. Chief among them is Joy Morrissey, who said Whitty should “defer” to politicians like her.

Matthew Weaver www.theguardian.com 

In a now deleted tweet, Morrissey, who is on the government payroll as a parliamentary aide, said: “Perhaps the covid unelected public health spokesperson should defer to what our ELECTED members of parliament and the prime minister have decided. I know it’s difficult to remember but this is not how democracy works. This is not a public health socialist state.”

So who should the public trust on the pandemic – the chief medical officer or the MP for Beaconsfield? Their respective CVs may offer a clue.

Prof Chris Whitty CB FRCP FFPH FMedSci

Age: 55.

Occupation: chief medical officer for England and practising NHS consultant physician.

Previous jobs: acting chief scientific adviser; director of research at the Department for International Development; chief scientific adviser to the Department of Health; head of the National Institute for Health Research Education; consultant physician at University College London hospitals; professor of public and international health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

Education: doctorate in medical science from Oxford; two diplomas, in tropical medicine and hygiene, and economics; three master’s degrees, in epidemiology, medical law and business administration.

Awards: Companion of the Order of Bath; fellow of the Academy of Medical Science; honorary doctorate for medical work in the community from the University of Plymouth.

What people say about him: Prof David Mabey, an infectious disease specialist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine says: “Chris is a polymath. He is really extraordinary. Since I’ve known him he’s done a diploma in economics, a degree in law and an MBA in his spare time. And in terms of his research, he covers all the disciplines: clinical medicine, epidemiology, health economics, social science. That’s really what makes him unique. He is the best man for the job, we are extremely lucky to have him.”

Joy Morrissey MP

Age: 40.

Occupation: member of parliament for Beaconsfield and parliamentary private secretary to the justice secretary, Dominic Raab.

Previous jobs: Ealing councillor; actor including a role in a “bonkfest” TV movie called Geek Mythology, about a man who acquires a magical statue that makes him irresistible to women.

Education: master’s degree in European social policy from the London School of Economics.

Awards: shortlisted for the Conservative London mayoral candidacy in 2021 but beaten by Shaun Bailey.

What people say about her: The Financial Times said she was a “passionate Brexiteer motivated by social injustice”. Morrissey has said of herself: “I don’t really care that much what people think, particularly if I think I’m right.” Her campaign to offer all homes and businesses a portrait of the Queen was dismissed as “Stalinist”.

From a correspondent

A Tory MP has given us her definition of democracy (since deleted):

From this I have to surmise that elected MPs and the Prime Minister are the most intelligent beings on this planet.  Just by being elected (especially if they are Tory, of course) they are automatically more clever than any and every scientist, doctor, professor, etc.

My first thought?  “Beam me up Scottie” – to any planet other than this one! Although, on reflection, maybe just beam me up to Amersham and Chesham or North Shropshire where some sense of reality may be emerging on THIS planet!

After nearly a week of investigation the Cabinet Secretary discovers that he himself is compromised and “recuses” himself from continuing to “mark his own homework”.

Given this knowledge, Owl wonders why he accepted the task in the first place. 

If all this results in a whitewash, will anyone except Boris believe it? 

“With each revelation, there is more evidence of a culture of turning a blind eye to the rules.” – Angela Rayner

www.itv.com

Cabinet Secretary Simon Case will no longer lead an investigation into several alleged Covid lockdown-breaking Christmas parties held in Whitehall last year, following accusations that his department’s office held its own gathering.

Mr Case had been tasked by Prime Minister Boris Johnson to lead an inquiry into whether a series of gatherings held in Whitehall in November and December last year breached strict restrictions.

And it was confirmed the scope could be widened to other alleged parties if Mr Case thought it necessary.

However following reports that two parties were held in the Cabinet Office in December 2020, a No 10 spokesperson said: “To ensure the ongoing investigation retains public confidence the Cabinet Secretary has recused himself for the remainder of the process.

“The work will be concluded by Sue Gray, second permanent secretary at the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities.

“She will ascertain the facts and present her findings to the Prime Minister.”

A source confirmed to ITV News that a partially virtual quiz took place in Mr Case’s department’s office on December 17, with six people who were in the office that day, taking part in person in a socially distanced manner. Most attendees dialled in remotely from home.

However, the source said Mr Case did not actively take part but acknowledged staff. The source added he knew the gathering was happening as he had to walk past the group in order to get to his private office.

Anger has been growing against Mr Johnson’s party as allegations of further gatherings emerge

The Cabinet Office later confirmed these reports in a statement on Friday evening, with a spokesperson telling ITV News: “Staff in the Cabinet Secretary’s private office took part in a virtual quiz on December 17 2020.

“A small number of them, who had been working in the office throughout the pandemic and on duty that day, took part from their desks, while the rest of the team were virtual.

“The Cabinet Secretary played no part in the event, but walked through the team’s office on the way to his own office. No outside guests or other staff were invited or present.

“This lasted for an hour and drinks and snacks were bought by those attending. He also spoke briefly to staff in the office before leaving.”

At the time, London was under tough Tier 3 Covid restrictions, under which the law stated: “No person may participate in a gathering in the Tier 3 area which consists of two or more people, and takes place in any indoor space.”

According to Guido Fawkes, a second event in Mr Case’s department saw staff drinking together in the office before heading out elsewhere in December.

Who is the new No 10 Christmas party inquiry lead, Sue Gray?

Ms Gray was director-general of propriety and ethics in the Cabinet Office from 2012 to 2018, and is seen as a Whitehall heavy hitter who would not pull any punches in an inquiry.

Ms Gray oversaw the Plebgate inquiry in 2012 after former chief whip Andrew Mitchell was accused of calling a policeman a “pleb” at the Downing Street gates, and was described as “deputy God” by then Labour MP, Paul Flynn, in a meeting of Parliament’s Public Administration Committee the same year.

Former Tory MP and Cabinet office minister Oliver Letwin is reported to have once said of Ms Gray: “It took me precisely two years before I realised who it is that runs Britain.

“Our great United Kingdom is actually entirely run by a lady called Sue Gray, the head of ethics or something in the Cabinet Office.

“Unless she agrees, things just don’t happen.”

She was once described by BBC Newsnight’s then policy editor as “the most powerful person you’ve never heard of”.

Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner said Ms Gray has the “incredible responsibility” on her shoulders of restoring public trust.

Ms Rayner said: “I do believe that the investigation that Sue Gray is going to be leading up, there’s the evidence there, they need to carry that investigation out very swiftly to restore the public trust and then hand over that evidence to the police because nobody’s above the law.”

It had previously been questioned whether Mr Case was the right person to lead an inquiry, after the prime minister would not confirm or deny whether he attended an alleged No 10 party on December 18. The prime minister put Mr Case up for the job and was forced to apologise after ITV News released a video showing some of his senior advisers laughing about the alleged Christmas party in Downing Street.

Mr Johnson later confirmed the investigation would also look into a Downing Street quiz on December 15 – after a picture emerged of the PM allegedly hosting it – along with an alleged festive drinks party that is accused of breaking Covid rules on December 10 at the Department for Education.

The Department for Transport also admitted a “socially distanced gathering in the large open-plan office” was held on December 16.

And Tory London mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey apologised “unreservedly” and stood down from his role as chair of the London Assembly’s policing body for attending a gathering at Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ), organised by staff on his campaign team on December 14, when London was in Tier 2 and indoor mixing between households was banned.

Labour’s deputy leader said she was “incredibly disappointed” in Mr Case.

Ms Rayner said: “I wrote to him and obviously had asked for this investigation and the fact that he didn’t come right away and say ‘actually, I can’t do that investigation because of the implications of my actions’ I find disappointing.”

She earlier had said: “With each revelation, there is more evidence of a culture of turning a blind eye to the rules.

“Labour made it clear the person leading the investigation should be uncompromised, free to make an independent judgement.”

No 10 inquiry chief Simon Case faces questions over own ‘party’ last year – Breaking news from Guido Fawkes web site:

www.bbc.co.uk

A staff “Christmas party” was held last year at the office of the man investigating lockdown parties at Downing Street.

Top civil servant Simon Case is due to report shortly on claims Covid rules were broken at events for staff in the run up to last Christmas.

But the BBC has been told that Mr Case’s position as chair of the inquiry is now under consideration.

The Cabinet Office has been asked to comment.

The BBC understands a quiz was held for members of Mr Case’s private office on 17 December 2020, and invites were sent out titled “Christmas Party!”

About 15 people were invited to the gathering at 70 Whitehall, near Downing Street, although it is understood not everyone turned up.

The BBC has been told that while Mr Case did not take part in the Christmas quiz, he was present for the event.

Mr Case, who has been cabinet secretary since September last year, has been asked by Boris Johnson to investigate gatherings for staff in government buildings last year.

His inquiry is focusing on events in Downing Street on 27 November, 15 December and 18 December, and at the education department on 10 December.

Responding to press reports of the gathering in Mr Case’s office, Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner said: “Boris Johnson as prime minister has set the tone for the civil service and the rest of government.

“With each new revelation there is growing evidence of a culture of turning a blind eye to the rules.

“Labour made it clear when the investigation was launched that the person in charge should be uncompromised and able to make a fair and independent judgement. These fresh revelations put that into question.”

With Boris Johnson equivocating on giving clear guidance the public seems to be heeding the advice being given the CMO. 

Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, said the Prime Minister needed  “to take on the swivel-eyed tendency in the Tory Party, but he’s too weak”. 

Since 1850 the Chief Medical Officer has been giving advice to the general public – it’s his/her job! – Owl

Alexandra Rogers www.huffingtonpost.co.uk 

A Tory MP has launched an attack on chief medical officer Chris Whitty, calling him an “unelected covid public health official” who should “defer” to parliament and the prime minister.

Joy Morrissey, the MP for Beaconsfield since 2010, made the comments in response to a tweet from Times journalist Steven Swinford who highlighted the difference in messaging between Boris Johnson and Whitty over socialising during the Christmas period.

In her tweet — which has since been deleted — Morrissey said: “Perhaps the unelected covid public health spokesperson should defer to what our ELECTED Members of Parliament and the Prime Minister have decided.

“I know it’s difficult to remember but that’s how democracy works. This is not a public health socialist state.”

Joy Morrissey’s now-deleted tweet

Twitter

Her tweet appeared to be criticised by MPs on her own side, including former chief whip Julian Smith, who said “personal attacks by any politician on members of the civil service are completely unacceptable”.

In a reply to Morrissey, writer James Felton said: “His job is to present the scientific view and what’s best for public health, not repeat what Boris Johnson said because he can’t keep his own MPs on board with basic health measures.”

The Labour Party’s south east branch said Morrissey should “focus her attention” on the actions of the chancellor “instead of attacking public health officials”.

Fellow Tory MP and health minister Gillian Keegan defended the government from accusations of mixed messaging on Thursday morning, as commentators pointed out that while the PM told people not to cancel social events, Whitty suggested they “prioritise” those that were most important to them.

Keegan denied Johnson was at odds with Whitty, arguing that they were “both basically saying the same thing”.

“What they were saying was prioritise, because obviously the more contacts you have, the more chance you have of testing positive, and that would mean that you’d be isolated on Christmas Day,” she told Times Radio.

“Obviously if you want to have a family Christmas, then be cautious, otherwise you could end up testing positive and having to isolate over Christmas. That’s the message.”

covid.joinzoe.com 

According to ZOE COVID Study incidence figures, in total there are currently 87,131 new daily symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on PCR and LFT test data from up to five days ago [*]. An increase of 4% from 83,658 new daily cases last week. In the vaccinated population (at least two doses) there are currently 27,000 new daily symptomatic cases in the UK. An increase of 6% from 25,411 new daily cases last week (Graph 1). 

The UK R value is estimated to be around 1.0 and regional R values are; England, 1.0, Wales, 1.0, Scotland, 1.0 (Table 1). Whilst these figures and R values suggest little is happening, London has an R value of 1.1, and is currently seeing a rapid rise in positive cases (Graph 3), this could be an early warning of what could happen across the rest of the country soon. 

In terms of prevalence, on average 1 in 57 people in the UK currently have symptomatic COVID. In the regions, England, 1 in 56. Wales, 1 in 46. Scotland, 1 in 79. (Table 1).

In the regions, cases are rapidly increasing in London (Graph 4), this rise is being driven by Omicron. Cases remain high in Midlands, East of England and Wales (Graph 4). 

The number of daily new cases among 0-18 year-olds remains high, while cases in the 19-35s are rapidly rising and the 36-55 age group continue to rise more steadily. Cases in the 55-75 age group are dropping and cases remain low in the over 75s, likely due to third dose vaccines but also a change in behaviour such as face mask wearing and avoiding large social gathering which we expect is being driven by fear of Omicron (Graph 2).

ZOE’s predicted Long COVID incidence rate currently estimates, at current case rates, 1,418 people a day will go on to experience symptoms for longer than 12 weeks. (Graph 4). 

The ZOE COVID Study incidence figures (new symptomatic cases) are based on reports from around 750,000 weekly contributors and the proportion of newly symptomatic users who have received positive swab tests. The latest survey figures were based on data from 52,489 recent swab tests done in the two weeks up to 11th December 2021. 

Omicron symptoms

In order to take a first look at the potential symptom profile of Omicron, this week ZOE conducted an initial analysis of symptom data from positive cases in London. London was selected due to the higher prevalence of Omicron compared to other regions. 

To compare Delta and Omicron, London data was selected from a week where Delta was dominant (03-10.10.2021) and compared to the most recent data (03-10.12.2021). This initial analysis found no clear differences in the early symptoms (3 days after test) between Delta and Omicron. 

The top five symptoms reported in the ZOE app were: 

1. runny nose
2. headache
3. fatigue (either mild or severe)
4. sneezing
5. sore throat

ZOE will be conducting further research into the symptom profile of Omicron in the coming weeks. 

Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study app, comments on the latest data:

“Omicron is set to be the dominant strain in the UK by Christmas, and in the New Year cases could hit a peak higher than anything we’ve ever seen before. In London cases have been rising rapidly, but this will likely slow down soon, as people change their behaviour, such as wearing face masks again, cancelling parties and working from home more. Hopefully people now recognise the cold-like symptoms which appear to be the predominant feature of Omicron. These are the changes that will slow the spread of the virus. It’s my hope that the rest of the country is doing the same to avoid big outbreaks outside of London, especially in big cities. 

Ahead of Christmas, if people want to get together and keep vulnerable family members safe, I’d recommend limiting social contact in the run up to Christmas and doing a few Lateral Flow Tests just before the big family gathering. As our latest data shows, Omicron symptoms are predominantly cold symptoms, runny nose, headache, sore throat and sneezing, so people should stay at home as it might well be COVID. We are also seeing two to three times as many mild infections in people with boosters in Omicron areas as we do in Delta variant areas, but they are still very protective and a vital weapon. The ZOE app is one of the best tools we have to rapidly understand this new variant so we want to encourage everyone to download the app and start logging. It only takes a minute to report but each contribution makes a huge difference to the fight against COVID.”

To ZOE COVID Study app can be downloaded here: https://api.covidradar.org/launch/ 

Graph 1. The ZOE COVID Study UK incidence figures results over time; total number of new cases and new cases in fully vaccinated

Graph 2. Incidence by age group 

Graph 3. Incidence in London 

Graph 4. Prevalence rate by region

Graph 5. Predicted Long COVID incidence over time

Please refer to the publication by Thompson at al. (2021) for details on how long covid rates in the population are modelled

‍Table 1. Incidence (daily new symptomatic cases)[*], R values and prevalence regional breakdown table 

Map of UK prevalence figures

With Covid-19 cases on the up and the Omicron variant rapidly sweeping the UK, fears of strict Christmas rules are beginning to emerge amongst those in the capiral.

Chloe Parkman www.devonlive.com

Although tougher restrictions have not yet been implemented, the UK Government has said a further 88,376 lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases have been recorded in the UK as of 9am on Thursday, the highest daily recorded since the pandemic began.

As part of Plan B England has reintroduced the wearing of masks in most public places after the announcement last week, and on Wednesday Covid passports will be introduced in nightclubs and other venues.

And as cases continue to rise ahead of Christmas, reports suggest Londoners are leaving the capital early for Christmas, with many flocking to the Westcounty.

According to the Daily Mail, commuters have described trains leaving the capital being packed with passengers laden with suitcases, bags and presents so they are assured of seeing their families on December 25.

The Daily Mail reports: “Mr Johnson has denied that there will be any further lockdowns or an escalation of his Plan B, those leaving admitted they have a ‘horrible feeling’ he might change his mind before Christmas Day with one million cases per day of Omicron predicted by Sunday.

“One person wrote the situation felt ‘like last year, the mass exodus from London spreading Omicron far and wide’. Another said: ‘Sadly this is true. Many London folk are still leaving for the West Country where it is inherently safer. Things can only get worse’.”

And for many across Devon and Cornwall, there is the feeling that history may well repeat.

Back in May of last year residents in Salcombe said they were “extremely frightened” after a number of second homeowners travelled from all over the country with their boats to visit the town as restrictions were set to ease.

Cars including Range Rovers (also known as Chelsea tractors), appeared within Salcombe, following the Government’s announcement on Sunday (May 10), which stated a slight ease with regards to the UK lockdown.

The flocking of second homeowners came after PM Boris Johnson announced, that driving your car to work and to travel somewhere in order to undergo unlimited exercise is allowed, however, nowhere did he state that families or indeed groups of friends, are able to travel to second homes.

The ‘Grim Reaper’ was even spotted standing on the Exeter Road roundabout last year holding a “Welcome holidaymakers” sign as restrictions began to ease.

The prank was not reflective of the general mood in the region, as Devon and Cornwall welcomed visitors back with open arms on day one of a major boost to the Westcountry’s economy.

The man, who wishes to remain anonymous, said that two men from a local business challenged him and ended up confiscated his sign.

This comes after many have expressed worries that easing lockdown might be too soon. Earlier today in Cornwall, another not so very welcoming sign was held by three pranksters over the A30, near Bodmin. It read simply: “Turn around and f*ck off. Read more here.

And in Cornwall, locals were faced with a similar situation.

Back in August of 2020 holidaymakers were being urged to follow social distancing rules in a bid to prevent Cornwall from being put under local lockdown.

Adam Paynter, deputy leader of Cornwall Council, warned that if people ignored the instructions to maintain a social distance, wash hands and wear a mask where appropriate, a local lockdown could potentially jeopardise the holiday season.

He said: “I urge all visitors to Cornwall to follow guidelines such as washing hands, wearing a mask when required to and maintaining a social distance.

“We want to avoid the local lockdowns that have happened further north that have seen places shut down and we want to make sure the attractions stay open for local and visitors to enjoy and don’t want to see anything closed and the best way to achieve that is if people do all they can to follow the rules to avoid spreading the coronavirus. If they do that, they’ll remain open.”

Ryanair has once again “trolled” the UK government on social media, imploring Rishi Sunak to “Come back to help out”.

www.independent.co.uk

The British chancellor is currently in California, prompting his critics to claim he is “missing in action” as omicron rates surge across the UK.

“It’s not often we plug our rivals, but there’s [sic] plenty of flights from California back to the UK if you’ve got urgent business to attend to #comebacktohelpout,” Europe’s biggest budget airline tweeted, alongside a graphic of Mr Sunak.

The carrier was referencing the “Eat out to help out” scheme, which the chancellor championed in the summer of 2020 to encourage Britons to patronise restaurants after months of lockdown.

Labour and business leaders have also joined forces to demand that the chancellor “come out of hiding” and put forward an urgent package for the hospitality industry to compensate for customers being urged to cut back on socialising as Covid infections soar.

Wes Streeting, Labour’s shadow health secretary, said: “It’s frankly inexplicable that the chancellor and the business secretary are nowhere to be seen.

“What they ought to be doing is getting business leaders and trade unionists around the table, as they have done at different points throughout the pandemic, to thrash out a package of support measures for these industries.”

The tweet from Ryanair is the latest in a string of social media attacks on the government over the last week.

Boris Johnson joined Downing Street officials for a party at No 10 during the first Covid-19 lockdown – with the prime minister telling one attendee they deserved a drink for “beating back” the virus, The Independent has been told.

www.independent.co.uk 

It is understood that about 20 civil servants and advisers gathered on 15 May last year for celebratory drinks inside No 10 and its garden. At the time, people from different households were restricted to one-on-one meetings outdoors, with gatherings indoors strictly forbidden.

The gathering took place after the then health secretary Matt Hancock had delivered a televised press conference, noting that 384 coronavirus deaths had been recorded in the previous 24 hours and highlighting a gentle easing of restrictions. The group is understood to have drunk alcohol, including wine, beer and coke mixed with spirits, and eaten pizza, with some staying late into the night.

The revelations – uncovered in a joint investigation by The Independent and The Guardian – are likely to pile pressure on Downing Street, which has come under fire over gatherings in No 10 around Christmas last year.

Drinks were poured at desks as participants huddled chatting just after the press conference finished at around 6pm that evening. It is understood that some staffers carried their alcohol into the Downing Street garden, making the most of the day’s good weather.

The event was characterised as a party by one source in attendance, who said aides had planned in advance to stay on for drinks, with a celebratory mood in the air as restrictions were loosened.

At one stage early on, according to a witness, the prime minister was present for around 15 minutes, during which he told an attendee inside, who had a drink in their hand, that they deserved their beverage for “beating back” the virus.

Only days earlier, on 10 May, Mr Johnson had told the nation in a televised address about plans to ease restrictions and, in a reference to the hardship that the country had faced, stressed that people had “shown the good sense to support those rules overwhelmingly”. Outlining an increase in fines for restriction breaches, he told the nation: “You must obey the rules on social distancing, and to enforce those rules we will increase the fines for the small minority who break them.”

Mr Hancock – who was forced to resign earlier this year after being caught kissing his aide in breach of social distancing guidelines – was present at one point during the event, according to a witness. However, a spokesperson for Mr Hancock said: “These allegations are not true.”

Asked about Mr Johnson’s “beating back” comment, and his presence at the alleged party where officials were drinking and socialising, a No 10 spokesperson said: “In the summer months Downing Street staff regularly use the garden for some meetings. On 15 May 2020 the prime minister held a series of meetings throughout the afternoon, including briefly with the then health and care secretary and his team in the garden following a press conference.

“The prime minister went to his residence shortly after 7pm. A small number of staff required to be in work remained in the Downing Street garden for part of the afternoon and evening.”

A spokesperson for Matt Hancock said: “Matt arrived at Downing Street at 4:43pm and gave the press conference that evening on lifting lockdown measures. After the press conference, which finished at approximately 5:53pm, Matt debriefed his own team, then went to the Downing Street garden to debrief the prime minister. He left Downing Street at 6:32pm and went back to the Department of Health and Social Care.”

There is no suggestion that either Johnson or Hancock drank alcohol themselves, or stayed late.

Mr Hancock had highlighted at the 50-minute press conference, held immediately before the gathering, that people could now meet one other person from another household, outside, for the first time since lockdown was enforced in March 2020 – a change that had come into effect two days earlier.

Mr Hancock described the “shared sacrifice” people had made in observing the stringent measures imposed in the months up to May in order to curb the impact of the virus.

Details have emerged in recent weeks of a series of parties held in No 10 and Whitehall at the end of last year, despite Covid-19 restrictions at the time. They reportedly include a party in No 10 on 18 December, when London was in tier 3, as well as a “packed” leaving do on 27 November, while the country was in its second lockdown. Separately, a Christmas quiz took place on 15 December at which the prime minister virtually hosted a round of questions. A picture emerged showing Mr Johnson sitting next to a colleague wearing a festive hat.

Cabinet secretary Simon Case, the UK’s most senior civil servant, is leading an investigation into the events. Mr Case has been given “a broad remit to investigate anything he thinks should be [investigated], any type of gathering at Downing Street that should be looked at, on any particular day he wants to,” health secretary Sajid Javid told Sky News on Monday.

Meanwhile, another picture emerged in recent days, adding to public anger. The image, published by the Daily Mirror, showed attendees of a festive gathering posing for the camera at Tory HQ on 14 December last year, when measures in London prohibited indoor social mixing. The picture shows elaborate platters of food, with grinning staffers posing alongside the then Conservative London mayoral candidate, Shaun Bailey. Mr Bailey has since apologised for attending, calling it a “serious error of judgement”. He said he gave a speech to thank his team “before leaving shortly afterwards”.

Lib Dems win “true blue” market town rural seat held by Tories for 200 years, with a majority of nearly 6,000!

Well at least he will have a bit of a hangover but don’t expect a leadership challenge until the various factions of a deeply divided party can agree on a challenger – Owl

A senior Conservative MP has warned Brexit is “destroying” British agriculture, as he condemned a government minister for failing to act.

www.independent.co.uk 

A furious Neil Parish laid into Kevin Foster, the immigration minister, for ignoring a recommendation to make it easier to bring in EU butchers and other workers – leading to a huge shortage.

The chair of the Commons Environment Committee warned that planting of vegetables was down 25 per cent and poultry production by 12.5 per cent, since Brexit.

“We are seeing our industry slowly being destroyed,” Mr Parish told the minister – demanding to know why the migration advisory committee’s call for farm workers to be placed on the shortage list was rejected.

“I thought Brexit was about encouraging production in this country, not discouraging it. This is down to labour shortages.”

Mr Parish accused the minister of claiming “it’s no problem, it wasn’t our problem” adding: “It is, I’m sorry minister.”

But Mr Foster hit back, arguing there was a “problem with uptake” and blaming employers for failing to sign up to a visa scheme to bring in workers.

Warnings of farm labour shortages have raged for months, after Brexit slammed the door on the ability of EU nationals to move to the UK and work freely.

In October, ministers performed a U-turn by allowing 800 butchers and 5,500 poultry workers  to enter the UK on short-term visas – having rejected putting them on the shortage list, to ease entry.

But Mr Foster admitted the number of butchers actually in place is under 100 – after the farm industry protested at the cost and bureaucracy of the visa system.

He criticised companies that have failed to apply to sponsor visas, telling the committee: “They could be used immediately if people wanted to do so.”

But Sheryll Murray, a fellow Tory committee member, told the minister: “We are seeing pigs slaughtered on the farm because of your slow process.”

The criticism came as a coalition of agriculture groups attacked “short-term fixes” that were failing to find a long-term solution to the supply crisis.

Dr Zoe Davies, chief executive of the National Pig Association (NPA), said: “The UK pig sector is still in meltdown as worker shortages continue to impact our ability to process the number of pigs we already have on farms.”

The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) demanded a commitment to avoid Britain’s self-sufficiency in food production falling from the current 60 per cent.

“Britain’s farmers are world-leaders in producing climate friendly food and, over the past 18 months, have been working hard to keep shelves and fridges full despite many being impacted by severe supply chain issues, particularly worker shortages,” said Minette Batters, the NFU president.

“Government has tried to paper over the cracks with short-term fixes but, if we want to avoid this crisis continuing, long-term solutions are urgently needed.”

Covid cases have fallen across much of Devon, after weeks of infections going up.

Ollie Heptinstall, local democracy reporter www.radioexe.co.uk

However, Devon’s director of public health urges caution as the first cases of the new Omicron variant are confirmed in the county, and reports that it may be more transmissable than Delta.

Figures for the week to Thursday 9 December show rates in Torbay and Devon County Council both fell by just under 15 per cent, but Plymouth’s went up 13 per cent.

However, the county continues to have higher rates of covid than the national average of 514 cases per 100,000 people. Devon and Torbay’s figures now stand at just over 600, while Plymouth’s is considerably higher at 865.

In the northern part of Devon, previously the most infectious area, cases have gone down significantly over the past week. Both Torridge and North Devon recorded falls of over a quarter, bringing rates closer to the county average.

Elsewhere at district level, Mid Devon and Teignbridge both had reductions in cases of more than 20 per cent. East Devon and Exeter registered single-figure percentage falls.

The most infectious district remains the South Hams, despite a small drop of just 13 cases. Its rate is 822 cases per 100,000 people.

West Devon was the only district area where cases increased, by just under 10 per cent.

It comes after the first confirmed cases of Omicron  were confirmed in Devon. Steve Brown, the county’s director of public health, said none of them are linked to foreign travel.

He added in a statement: “It was only going to be a matter of time before we saw the first Omicron cases in Devon, so this does not come as a surprise.

It will take a while before we have real world data to understand the full characteristics of the Omicron variant, but early indicators do seem to suggest that it is more transmissible than the Delta variant.

“We do expect to see the numbers of confirmed Omicron cases rise in Devon over coming weeks, and it is likely to overtake the Delta virus to become the dominant strain across the country.

“We are monitoring the data very closely and will continue to take appropriate measures to curb transmission where we see outbreak situations.”

Mr Brown is due to update Devon’s council leaders on the situation tomorrow, Thursday. 

HOSPITALISATIONS

As of the most recent data from Tuesday 7 December, 160 patients with covid are in Devon’s hospitals, an increase of 12 from last week’s figure. Sixty-nine are at Derriford Hospital in Plymouth, 36 at the RD&E, 30 in Torbay, 22 in North Devon and three at Devon Partnership mental health sites.

Of the total number of patients, 16 are in ventilation beds.

DEATHS

Eleven more people died in the county within 28 days of testing positive for covid in the latest complete weekly period (up to Wednesday 8 December). Seven were in the Devon County Council area, two in Torbay and two in Plymouth.

A total of 1,388 people in Devon (including Plymouth and Torbay) have died within 28 days of a positive test since the pandemic began.

VACCINATIONS

The number of peopple aged 12 or over who have received at least one dose of a vaccine is 87 per cent in the Devon County Council area, 85 per cent in Torbay and 83 per cent in Plymouth.

The proportion of people who have had two jabs is 81 per cent in Devon, 79 per cent in Torbay and 77 per cent in Plymouth.

Case rates by age from the Devon Covid dashboard

EDDC Leader Paul Arnott www.midweekherald.co.uk

On Wednesday, December 8, the Full Council at East Devon District met via zoom, as is now usual.

The agenda included an item about whether we should continue to meet virtually until spring next year.

The Conservative group, following direct orders from the national party, continues to make potty arguments for Full Council – all 60 of us, plus a dozen officers – to meet face to face.

Because the council chamber of the new-ish council building they commissioned when in power is so small that only 16 people can be allowed in it any one time (and the windows don’t open!), such a meeting would have to be held at Westpoint.

It’d involve having all the doors open come snow or rain this winter, and land the council with a hire bill of well over £1,000. 

Yet somehow the Conservatives, infected with the odd mixture of gung-ho, macho and arrogance of the PM and his buddy Jacob Rees Mogg, were still trying to force this really daft idea through.

I can report that they failed, but only after the comedy of a few low-grade speeches proclaiming themselves as the great tribunes of democracy, made literally at the same time as the PM was announcing, “if you can work from home, you should”. The right hand didn’t know what the right-wing hand was doing.

However, that was not the most important part of the meeting. At Agenda Item One always is ‘Public Speaking’. In essence, it is the item when anyone from East Devon can come along and say whatever they wish about the council’s business.

In December 2019, Full Council had anointed a former councillor, John Humphreys, as an Alderman, a constitutional curio which is meant to recognise the long-service of recently retired members.

In August 2021, Humphreys was sent to prison for 21 years for his repeated sexual assaults against two minors. In September 2021, Full Council withdrew his Alderman status.

Frankly, this had to be just the start of the council having a serious look at itself. 

Taking away his being an alderman was scarcely even a gnat bite. At that September 2021 meeting I said I would look further into the matter, and I did.

What I discovered, was horrific. To be very clear, the police in the present day, and the Crown Prosecution, got their man. These historic cases are very hard to prove. They did well.

Last week, though, we heard directly from one of the victims that he had done all he could to report Humphreys vile acts to the police in both 2004 and in 2012. 

His account of this was read in a statement for him by the ward member for his family in Exmouth, and is available to read online in full. 

His reward for making these reports was for both him and his family to be threatened by the local police, he alleged.

He also could not understand why nobody had done anything about Humphreys carrying on as a councillor beyond 2016, when he was first charged, let alone 2017 when a full file had been sent to the Crown Prosecution Service.

Were we seriously to credit that nobody connected to him politically knew this?

If nobody knew, why was his re-selection as a district councillor stopped by the Conservatives for the May 2019 elections? And why on earth did they then put his name forward to be an Alderman in December 2019?

On hearing his statement, I immediately wrote to the Chief Constable requesting that he refer his force to the Independent Office for Police Conduct with regard to the alleged behaviours by officers towards the victim 2004-15.

I also wrote to the East Devon Conservatives asking if they have launched an enquiry. It hasn’t been a week yet since I wrote and I’ll chase on Thursday.

I’ll let you know.

From Politico Newsletter:

There is frustration in Whitehall that Tory MPs did not grasp the arguments made to them by Johnson and Javid. Multiple figures from across the government privately blasted Tory backbenchers as out of touch with what is happening with Omicron. One Tory suggested that their MPs suffer from their own COVID “lag” — only realizing how serious things are well after everyone else. Another thought some MPs had backed themselves into a corner by publicly committing to opposing the measures before the extent of the Omicron danger became clear. 

There is also annoyance that MPs did not seem to accept that even if the vast majority of the population is vaccinated, and even if Omicron is milder, the sheer numbers mean that hospitalizations could still breach hospital capacity. Another minister said a rebellion on vaccine passports paled into insignificance when compared to the prospect of the NHS being overwhelmed: “To be honest arguments about masks and certification are out of date. The focus is on boosters and saving lives.”

“All of you don’t want to be seen leaving having popped down to Tesco to get your drinks”

Laurie Churchman (Extract) metro.co.uk

No 10 staff were told to ‘go out the back’ after staying in Downing Street to take part in a Christmas quiz while lockdown restrictions were in place, it has been reported.

While households were banned from mixing socially under Tier 2 restrictions in London, Downing Street staff are said to have quaffed fizz and competed under team names including ‘Hands, Face, First Place’, ‘The 6 Masketeers’, and ‘Professor Quiz Whitty’.

Then at 9.39pm, No 10’s head of HR sent a message to the quiz group chat advising staff to leave ‘out the back’.

The event on December 15 last year – which the Prime Minister helped host – was held virtually, but many participants reportedly joined from the office.

The revelations, made in the The Mirror newspaper, show organisers knew days ahead some staff would be taking part in person, in an apparent breach of lockdown rules.

Official guidance at the time stated: ‘You must not have a work Christmas lunch or party, where that is a primarily social activity and is not otherwise permitted by the rules in your tier.’

An image published by the Sunday Mirror showed the Prime Minister flanked by colleagues, one draped in tinsel and another wearing a Santa hat, in the No 10 library.

The newspaper quoted a source who said many staff were huddled by computers in their Downing Street offices, conferring on questions and drinking alcohol.

No 10 previously said Downing Street staff were ‘often required to be in the office to work on the pandemic response’ during lockdowns – and ‘those who were in the office for work may have attended virtually from their desks’.

A Government spokesperson said: ‘Given there is an ongoing review, it would be inappropriate to comment while that is ongoing.’