Owl says Goodbye …

So, the results are in.

East Devon and the country stay blue.

5 years of a wet-behind-the-ears and dim Swire clone for East Devon Jupp (or James, still not sure!)
5 years of a lying, narcissistic Trump clone for England.
5 years of a schismatic (dis)United Kingdom.

Owl has had enough*

East Devon has the representation it deserves:

A crap TiggerTory council

A crap new MP

A crap government

Thanks to Lib Dems and Greens who ensured a Tory victory
(thanks Rylance and Gent – though developer Gent really won’t mind much as he will still be a big winner developer-wise)

So, THEY at least will be pleased to hear that Owl has thrown in the towel and is flying off to pastures new.

Enjoy the next 5 years – Owl hopes you get what you deserve.

It was a pleasure to serve you – until this week!

Goodbye, au revoir, sayonara, adios, Auf Wiedersehen, Arrivederci …. I’m off …. RIGHT NOW.

* The blog will remain open as an archive until 31 December 2019 and will then be deleted

OWL HAS LEFT EAST DEVON …

It’s official – from best (1) to worst (650) constituency MPs Swire is 649!

“To make the Index, we used ten data sources which measure the following, in priority order

1.Your MP’s availability to their constituents. This looks at how your MP is available online (email and social media), offline (holding “surgeries” in your local area and a caseworker), and whether your MP is distracted by a second (or third) job.

2.Your MP’s participation in Parliament. This looks at your MP’s participation record for voting in Parliament, so that your constituency is counted when new laws are passed, and how often your MP raises issues from your constituency in Parliament

3.How an MP listens to the public. An MP’s top priority is their constituency, but they also have a responsibility to the wider general public to bring political attention to mass public campaigns and priority issues by discussing them in Parliament.

All mentions of “MPs” refer to Members of Parliament for the 2017-2019 period, most of whom are now candidates seeking re-election in December 2019 at the General Election.”

https://www.change.org/l/uk/the-people-power-index-how-did-your-mp-score?

“IFS warn austerity ‘baked in’ a Tory manifesto with ‘notable’ lack of social care funding”

In a dire warning the IFS added: “even in 2023–24 day-to-day spending on public services outside of health would still be almost 15 per cent lower in real terms that it was at the start of the 2010s.”

“The Institute for Fiscal Studies is deeply unimpressed at what it deemed a “lack of significant policy action” in the Conservative Party manifesto.

The Tory social care crisis for Britain’s elderly and infirm that Johnson had promised to fix when he became PM did not even get a mention in the manifesto. Johnson had previously claimed that he had a plan ready to sort it out.

The IFS concluded that the manifesto plans meant people expecting relief for Britain’s public services after a decade of austerity would instead see “cuts to their day-to-day budgets of the last decade baked in.”

Economic researchers at the independent think tank calculated that the National Insurance threshold rise to £9,500 that Boris Johnson appeared to have lied or been mistaken about will actually only save most in paid work “less than £2 a week” and highlighted the “notable omission” for any plan to deal with the crisis in social care funding.

Nigel Edwards, chief executive at the Nuffield Trust, an independent health think tank, said he was “bitterly disappointed” to see “unnecessary delay” in tackling the issue of social care.

IFS director Paul Johnson said: “If a single Budget had contained all these tax and spending proposals, we would have been calling it modest.

“As a blueprint for five years in government, the lack of significant policy action is remarkable.”

Main manifesto pledges quickly debunked

Speaking at a launch event in Telford, Boris Johnson reaffirmed his commitment to take the UK out of the EU by the end of January, so they could “forge a new Britain”. “We will get Brexit done and we will end the acrimony and the chaos,” he said.

As well as a flagship promise of 50,000 more nurses for the NHS in England despite Brexit “chaos”, the manifesto included a U-turn restoring maintenance grants for student nurses previously scrapped by the Tories.

Tory sources later acknowledged that about 30,000 of the additional nurses would come from measures to retain existing staff rather than new recruits, and the main Tory manifesto pledge was debunked among other claims by a fact checking service within hours of the launch. Labour called the Tory figures “deceitful.”

Chief executive Will Moy said the Conservative Party could “do more to meet the standards we expect” after investigating its pledges on paving the way for 50,000 new nurses and limiting day-to-day spending increases to only £3 billion, despite promising a litany of public services investment.

The fact checkers also slammed Johnson’s use the the slogan “get Brexit done”, a phrase that appears 22 times in the manifesto including on the cover, when a deal with the European Union could take “years to negotiate”.

“The Brexit process will not be completed by January,” despite what Johnson keeps repeating said the independent organisation.

‘Older people face a triple whammy’

“After a decade of the Conservatives cutting our NHS, police and schools, all Boris Johnson is offering is more of the same: more cuts, more failure, and years more of Brexit uncertainty,” Jeremy Corbyn responded.

He added: “Boris Johnson can’t be trusted. Older people face a triple whammy as he has failed to protect free TV licences for over 75s, refused to grant justice to women unfairly affected by the increase in the state pension age, and not offered a plan or extra money to fix the social care crisis.”

The lacklustre manifesto may be down to Conservative complacency after recent polls. The latest polling released on Sunday, created by Datapraxis using YouGov polling and voter interviews, suggested the Tories were on course to secure their largest Commons majority since 1987 – a majority of almost 50 MPs.

This would mean if Boris Johnson met the public services spending promises in his manifesto the UK would still be looking at a decade of cuts “baked into” our services, according to the IFS analysis.

Boris Johnson’s broken promise to fix Tory social care crisis

Paul Johnson of the IFS’ initial reaction to the Tory manifesto was scathing: “If the Labour and Liberal Democrat manifestos were notable for the scale of their ambitions the Conservative one is not. If a single Budget had contained all these tax and spending proposals we would have been calling it modest. As a blueprint for five years in government the lack of significant policy action is remarkable.

“In part that is because the chancellor announced some big spending rises back In September. Other than for health and schools, though, that was a one-off increase. Taken at face value today’s manifesto suggests that for most services, in terms of day-to-day spending, that’s it. Health and school spending will continue to rise. Give or take pennies, other public services, and working age benefits, will see the cuts to their day-to-day budgets of the last decade baked in.”

“One notable omission is any plan for social care. In his first speech as prime minister Boris Johnson promised to ‘fix the crisis in social care once and for all’. After two decades of dither by both parties in government it seems we are no further forward.

“On the tax side the rise in the National Insurance threshold was well trailed. The ambition for it to get to £12,500 may remain, but only the initial rise to £9,500 has been costed and firmly promised. Most in paid work would benefit, but by less than £2 a week. Another £6 billion would need to be found to get to £12,500 by the end of the parliament. Given the pressures on the spending side that is not surprising.”

“Perhaps the biggest, and least welcome, announcement is the ‘triple tax lock’: no increases in rates of income tax, NICs or VAT. That’s a constraint the chancellor may come to regret. It is also part of a fundamentally damaging narrative – that we can have the public services we want, with more money for health and pensions and schools – without paying for them. We can’t.”

School cuts barely reversed

The Conservative manifesto confirmed previous commitments in England to increase school spend in England by £7.1 billion by 2022–23. However, that would leave spend per pupil in real terms after a decade of austerity at the same level as 13 years ago, the IFS explained.

In contrast the IFS found the Labour commitment of a £7.5 billion real terms increase by 2022–23 a 14.6% rise in spending per pupil.

Unlike Labour and the Liberal Democrats the Conservative manifesto refused to extend free, pre-school childcare.

IFS researchers warned that the Conservative manifesto pledges left “little scope for spending increases beyond next year outside of those planned for health and schools.”

In a dire warning the IFS added: “even in 2023–24 day-to-day spending on public services outside of health would still be almost 15 per cent lower in real terms that it was at the start of the 2010s.”

@BenGelblum

IFS warn austerity ‘baked in’ a Tory manifesto with ‘notable’ lack of social care funding

“Boris Johnson says he has never told a lie during his political career

‘I may have got things wrong, I may have been mistaken, but I’ve never tried to deceive people’.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-boris-johnson-says-he-has-never-told-a-lie-during-his-political-career-1327509

Manifestos here, manifestos there …

“Experts say Tory tax plans will mostly benefit wealthier people, as minister faces derision for saying government ‘not to blame’ for poverty.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-news-live-general-election-brexit-polls-labour-manifesto-latest-a9211656.html

AND

“IFS rejects Labour’s claim 95% taxpayers would not pay extra for its plans”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/”nov/21/general-election-2019-corbyn-to-launch-labours-manifesto-of-hope-live-news?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

AND

“Lib Dem manifesto spending analysed: Eye-watering sums for young families but what about pensioners?”

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-11-20/lib-dem-manifesto-spending-analysed-eye-watering-sums-for-young-families-but-what-about-pensioners/

Maybe try here – where they are all compared!

Click to access Carl%20Emmerson%2C%202017%20General%20Election%2C%20manifesto%20analysis.pdf

Did our Tory candidate give his boss this advice?

A goid question for hustings?

“

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/20/twitter-accuses-tories-of-misleading-public-in-factcheck-row?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Claire Wright manifesto launch news

“Claire Wright, Independent Parliamentary Candidate for East Devon, launches manifesto

Independent Parliamentary Candidate for East Devon Claire Wright is to formally launch her election manifesto at The Institute, Yonder St, Ottery St Mary, EX11 1HH on Wednesday 13th November from 7.30 – 9pm.

This is a public event open to all, including media.

The venue is in the middle of town, next door to the Rusty Pig. Disabled access is at the side of the building. It is best to park in Sainsbury’s car park.

The General Election 2019 manifesto is now live on the website – to view it click here.

After a campaign announcement in Exmouth with BBC reporter and former independent MP Martin Bell, 80,0000 of the manifestos are currently winging their way across the constituency, thanks to hundreds of generous spirited volunteers.

The county councillor has pledged to campaign for the issues her constituents tell her are important to them.

My manifesto is based on the issues the people of East Devon have told me matter most,” said Wright.

“The past few years have demonstrated that the party system is broken. It is time for change. As an Independent, I would have exactly the same rights as other MPs and would work cross-party to achieve my manifesto pledges.

“I am different. I have no party whip to tell me how to vote. I am free to speak and free to act. And free to fight for the issues that the people of East Devon care about the most.

“This election is very unpredictable and presents a rare opportunity for residents to elect an MP who truly cares and puts them first.”

Owl is very suspicious about this …

“Meeting to determine fire station closures and cuts moved until after Christmas’

https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/meeting-determine-fire-station-closures-3515624

Why is Owl suspicious?

First, it postpones it until after the General Election

and second?

Owl will return to this tomorrow!

Councillor Paul Millar’s thoughts on Swire – from his vantage point in Parliament

“In recent weeks outgoing Conservative MP Sir Hugo Swire for East Devon has been unrelenting in his attacks on Claire Wright.

At a time in which women in politics are leaving Parliament in droves, the bombardment has felt a little insensitive. Yet, it’s water off a duck’s back for Claire, as she remains focussed on the issues that matter in East Devon rather than the kind of Punch-and-Judy politics Sir Hugo is indulging in.

In Sir Hugo’s last interview, he concedes that Claire Wright is a “good campaigner” but suggests she wouldn’t be a competent “legislator”.I must admit the statement puzzled me, because in all his years in Parliament, Sir Hugo failed to have any meaningful impact on any legislation which has benefitted the people of East Devon. In my time he never campaigned for any legislative change.

Campaigner and legislator are not two mutually [exclusive things]. I would go as far as to say that I had more impact on legislation my three years as a mediocre researcher than he has in over 22 years as an MP. I rarely saw him in the Palace of Westminster, except when he was dining foreign dignitaries and party donors in Strangers Dining Room, one of the many plush restaurants in the House of Commons subsidised by the taxpayer.

At times one felt a cardboard cut-out might’ve had more influence than Sir Hugo – he never once did any serious cross-party work, and the fact he keeps his constituency work “confidential” rather suggests he was never too interested in helping constituents with appeals for disability benefits and such like. When I approached his office for a request for help with a benefits case for a constituent, I was told it was not their policy to assist.

Most backbenchers do important work and have influence on Select Committees – Sir Hugo refused to serve on any Committee in his last nine years of parliamentary service.

All the while Sir Hugo has been wining and dining, Claire Wright has been working hard and proving herself as a brilliant Councillor. She has excellent values and has done excellent investigation and campaigning work on saving hospital beds and local health facilities. She revealed last week that she had turned down a £5,000 donation from a business.

If elected, forget the torment of Brexit, Claire would make an excellent Member of Parliament, she has the hunger to campaign, she is passionate about improving people’s lives, she has the humility to listen and consult, she has the eye for detail to legislate and make good policies from the backbenches. These are all qualities Sir Hugo lacks.

Being an Independent is no handicap as I have found in local politics. Next month, some will vote for who they want to be Prime Minister; I will be voting for whom I want to be my MP, and the candidate whom I am convinced is best for East Devon. Claire Wright is a breath of fresh air, so I hope all Owl readers will vote for a candidate who so clearly cares about our communities.

About Author:

Paul Millar worked as an aide to the late, independent-minded Labour MP Paul Flynn (2016-17), going onto work as a senior aide to Geoffrey Robinson MP and leading the Organ Donation (Deemed Consent) Bill through Parliament.

He is now an Exmouth Town and East Devon District Councillor

Swire – whinging, still obsessing about Claire Wright and says he would not want to wait to 65 to retire!

Well, what a whinger! He could give Victor Meldrew a run for his money! Or maybe Albert Steptoe!

Hates Claire Wright (but too frit to stand against her).

Disses the Sidmouth Beach Plan (put together by his party at EDDC).

Thinks 65 is too late to retire (does he realise we plebs have no option but to go on to 66?).

Hates Cranbrook and puts the blame for it on previous head planner Kate Little (again under EDDC Tory council control and controlled by Leader Diviani).

Says it’s a pity he couldn’t spend more time in East Devon because he had to travel so much when a bag-carrier and arms salesman for the Foreign Office (after which he immediately carried on travelling as Chairman of the Conservative Middle East Council).

THEN when asked what he is most proud of he says Budleigh Health Hub (a privately-ownec business which replaced a community hospital) and getting the Health Secretary to say Ottery Hospital (again having lost beds) is “safe” when, if you read the letter, it patently isn’t) and continues:

“I think my proudest achievement must therefore be to have looked after them as well as I can. We’ve helped on other things too, the difference between being a placard waving campaigner and an a member of Parliament, a legislator, is very simple you can’t crow about everything you have achieved as an MP because a lot of what you do is confidential. It involves other people’s extraordinary, complicated, messy and difficult lives.”

In other words – he can’t think of anything else!

A pathetic end to a pathetic career.

East Devon Alliance Leader Waves a Cheery Goodbye to Swire!

Letter to press (photo by Owl – posted by Swire himself)

“Dear Editor

With his customary good grace, Hugo Swire has walked away from his constituency pledging not to meddle further, then immediately insinuated that a vote for Claire Wright is a waste of time. It is this consistent lack of judgement and common touch that has helped propel Claire repeatedly upwards in the polls in recent years.

Indeed, if Swire’s final thought – after an undistinguished innings – is of her, perhaps the haunting prospect that she will win is belated evidence that the man cares about anything at all.

Paul Arnott

Leader: East Devon Alliance of Independents”