Two-thirds of bank branches have closed in the last 30 years

“A Which? survey has revealed the UK has lost two-thirds of its bank branches in the past 30 years.

The consumer group found there were 7,586 bank branches currently operating compared with 20.583 in 1988. …

… Which? money expert Gareth Shaw told the FT: “We can’t stop tech disrupting traditional models of banking.

“But this is happening at such a pace, we are concerned some people are being disenfranchised and excluded from accessing finance.”

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/uk-bank-closures-rbs-scotland-13598672

DCC overspend jumps to nearly £10 million

“Phil Norrey, chief executive of Devon County Council, said he wanted to reassure councillors, staff and taxpayers about the impact of the savings strategy, saying it was ‘tight and good housekeeping’.

He said: “We are making sure that we have our house in order rather than panicking and walking over a cliff and the range of measures we are implementing we have looked at very carefully.

“There are pressures across the country and after around eight or nine years of extreme pressures on budgets, it has to come a point when we reach the end of the road on spending, and that will come in the next two or three years.”

https://www.northdevongazette.co.uk/news/devon-10m-overspend-2018-1-5782070

Devon £8m overspend, Suffolk £11.2 million overspend – dominoes fall

Devon is playing its cards close to its chest about cuts:
https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/budget-overspend-forecast-devon-blamed-2005218

Suffolk proposes:

A 2.9% council tax rise next year
A halt to road sign cleaning, with only mandatory road markings being maintained
Reducing housing-related support for people in their own tenancies
A review of arrangements with district and borough councils for grass cutting and weed treatment services
Removal of the Citizens Advice Bureau grant
Reducing the legal, training and equipment costs at trading standards
Streamlining running costs in educational psychologists service, although there will be no cuts to frontline services

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-46212757

Another company with local government outsourcing contracts hits the headlines

“Interserve, one of the biggest outsourcing companies serving the government, scrambled to calm market jitters yesterday, rebuffing claims that it was teetering on the brink and could follow Carillion into receivership unless it could raise fresh capital.

Shares in the group slumped by as much as 26 per cent to less than 29p, before retracing almost all of the losses and ending the day at 38.5p, down 2 per cent, when a positive statement was rushed out mid-afternoon. This said that the implementation of strategy “remains on track” and the group continued to expect a significant operating profit improvement this year “in line with management’s expectations”.

The latest flurry of investor nerves began last week after a joint venture partner, Renewi, disclosed that Interserve had missed a deadline on an important energy-from-waste project in Derby. They intensified yesterday when the BBC reported that it was planning to tap investors for more cash, citing sources close to the company.

The group provides meals for schools and hospitals, constructs and maintains government buildings and provides a string of other services, from asbestos removal to repairing flood barriers. It employs 75,000 people worldwide, 25,000 of them in the UK, and has a turnover of £3.2 billion.

The Cabinet Office has been on alert to be prepared for another outsourcer collapse after the National Audit Office said that the Carillion failure had cost taxpayers £148 million. Ministers were accused of mishandling that failure.

A Cabinet Office spokeswoman said yesterday: “We monitor the financial health of all of our strategic suppliers, including Interserve, and have regular discussions with the company’s management. The company refinanced earlier this year and we fully support them in their recovery plan.

“It is in the taxpayers’ interest to have a well financed and stable group of key suppliers, so we welcome the actions that the company is taking as part of their planned strategy.” More than £900 million has been wiped from the value of the company, which now stands at just £56 million, since the share price high of 700p in April 2014.

In March, Interserve agreed a complex £800 million rescue refinancing with lenders, bondholders and pension trustees, which it said would provide sufficient capital to see it through to September 2021. Most of the £197 million in new cash was provided by Emerald Investment, the family office of the Punch Taverns tycoon Alan McIntosh.

Yesterday’s statement said nothing about the speculation that new capital was needed, however. Simon Jack, the BBC’s business editor, quoted a former shareholder saying that it would need £500 million in new capital — a huge amount that would all but wipe out existing shareholders.

At the half-year results in August, Interserve reported a slide from profits of £24.9 million to a £6 million loss, but promised £40-50 million per year of cost savings by 2020. Net debt was £614 million, up from £503 million a year earlier.

The company has previously said it aims to deleverage eventually, with most analysts assuming this meant a rights issue at some point, but it had hoped to make enough progress to get the share price higher first.

Stephen Rawlinson, an analyst with the research firm Applied Value, said: “Interserve has been failing at a trading level for some time. Now it seems to be failing at a financial level too. ”

Interserve’s biggest shareholders, according to Thomson Reuters, are Coltrane Asset Management, a New York fund, with 17.5 per cent, Goldman Sachs with 9.1 per cent and Valkendorf, a Danish hedge fund, with 8.2 per cent.

Memories of Carillion debacle still raw.

Behind the story

One big outsourcing company going bust on the government may be regarded as misfortune. Two would look like carelessness. Which, 11 months after the collapse of Carillion, is why the Cabinet Office is on red alert to ensure public services would not be disrupted if Interserve were to fail (Patrick Hosking writes).

The group is a large supplier to the public sector. Seventy per cent of its £3 billion of annual revenues come from government, whether it is cleaning and maintaining 1,100 offices and depots for the Department for Transport or building the Defence National Rehabilitation Centre in Loughborough — a £150 million project to help rehabilitate and care for injured servicemen and women.

It is also a significant supplier to the private sector. It provides the cleaners for Boots stores and the Walgreens Boots head office, as well as providing interior fittings for John Lewis department stores.

But it is its role in creating centres converting waste into energy which is at the heart of the latest concern about the group. These have fallen behind schedule and Interserve, after making a provision of £195 million, is still trying to extricate itself from the disastrous diversification.

That was the brainchild of Adrian Ringrose, the former chief executive, who shareholders blame for much of the group’s troubles. He and two other departing executives received a combined payoff of £1 million last year after presiding over several profit warnings.

His successor, Debbie White, a former executive at Sodexho, the French catering group, who joined in September 2017, is trying to cut costs, simplify the business, reduce the myriad services offered to clients and introduce more discipline in bidding for new work.

But the sliding share price suggests the market is sceptical about her progress. It also explains why, according to one source, civil servants, who are under pressure to make contingency plans after the Carillion debacle, have been quietly asking rival outsourcers if they could take on Interserve’s projects in the unlikely event of its failure.”

Source: The Times (pay wall)

“Report says Devon is one of the least socially mobile counties in the UK”

“The report, Social Mobility in Counties, by the County All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) and County Councils Network (CCN) says funding of councils including Devon is embedding a cycle of low social mobility.

MPs say the perception of counties as affluent areas has masked ‘deep-seated socio-economic challenges and deprivation’ in shire counties such as Devon.

The report says shire counties receive £182 in funding per head compared to £482 in London and puts Devon in the bottom 10 socially mobile areas.

The social mobility index was compiled by think-tank Localis. …”

http://www.midweekherald.co.uk/news/devon-social-mobility-1-5767856

“One-third of UK workers got pay rise of 1% or less last year” [again]

“More than 10 million workers received a pay rise of 1% or less last year, according to official figures that highlight the growing concentration of workers at the bottom of the pay scale.

The Office for National Statistics said almost 32% of Britain’s workforce of 32.5 million people were given an increase that was less than one-third of the inflation rate, which reached 3.1% in November 2017.

Most workers lost out last year, the ONS said, after it found the median gross weekly earnings for full-time employees grew by 2.2%.

Fuelling the debate about low-paid workers, the figures showed employers barely reacted to the inflation spike last year, when they paid employees much the same as in 2016, when inflation was below 2%, and in 2015, when inflation fell to almost zero.

Wages have climbed this year, according to the Bank of England. It estimates the rate of increase has reached 3%, though this is only marginally more than the consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation, which is 2.4%

The ONS said much of the 1% cap affected the 5.3 million workers in the public sector, many of whom are better educated and higher paid than the average across the workforce. But millions of private sector workers were also affected by wage rises of 1% or less, leading to a greater concentration of workers on the bottom rungs of the pay ladder.

Many were protected by the “national living wage”, which increased by 4.2% on 1 April 2017 from £7.20 to £7.50. Workers on wages above this level, however, were among those to receive either no rises or low ones, leading to clustering around the minimum wage, according to the ONS.

A regional survey found the UK’s worst-affected area was Northern Ireland, with 13.1% of employees earning close to the NLW, compared with 5.9% in London. …”

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/nov/02/millions-of-uk-workers-received-pay-rise-of-1-or-less-last-year

“How the actual magic money tree works”

“Shock data shows that most MPs do not know how money is created. Responding to a survey commissioned by Positive Money just before the June election, 85% were unaware that new money was created every time a commercial bank extended a loan, while 70% thought that only the government had the power to create new money.

The results are only a shock if you didn’t see the last poll of MPs on exactly this topic, in 2014, revealing broadly the same level of ignorance. Indeed, the real shock is that MPs still, without embarrassment, answer surveys.

Yet almost all our hot-button political issues, from social security to housing, relate back to the meaning and creation of money; so if the people making those choices don’t have a clue, that isn’t without consequence.

How is money created?

Some is created by the state, but usually in a financial emergency. For instance, the crash gave rise to quantitative easing – money pumped directly into the economy by the government. The vast majority of money (97%) comes into being when a commercial bank extends a loan. Meanwhile, 27% of bank lending goes to other financial corporations; 50% to mortgages (mainly on existing residential property); 8% to high-cost credit (including overdrafts and credit cards); and just 15% to non-financial corporates, that is, the productive economy.

What’s wrong with that?

On the corporate financial side, bank-lending inflates asset prices, which concentrates wealth in the hands of the wealthy. On the mortgage side, house prices rise to meet the amount the lender is prepared to lend, rather than being moored to wages. The lender benefits enormously from larger mortgages and longer periods of indebtedness; the homeowner benefits slightly from a bigger asset, but obviously spends longer in debt servitude; the renter loses out completely.

Is there a magic money tree?

All money comes from a magic tree, in the sense that money is spirited from thin air. There is no gold standard. Banks do not work to a money-multiplier model, where they extend loans as a multiple of the deposits they already hold. Money is created on faith alone, whether that is faith in ever-increasing housing prices or any other given investment. This does not mean that creation is risk-free: any government could create too much and spawn hyper-inflation.

Any commercial bank could create too much and generate over-indebtedness in the private economy, which is what has happened. But it does mean that money has no innate value, it is simply a marker of trust between a lender and a borrower. So it is the ultimate democratic resource. The argument marshalled against social investment such as education, welfare and public services, that it is unaffordable because there is no magic money tree, is nonsensical. It all comes from the tree; the real question is, who is in charge of the tree?

What could we do instead?

We could do QE for the people, overt monetary financing in which a government creates money for social benefit, such as green infrastructure or education. Or helicopter money, a central bank distributing it to everyone, either in a one-off citizen’s dividend or a regular citizen’s basic income. The nature of centrally created money should itself be opened up for debate, whose starting point is: if we agree that commercially created money is skewing the economy, can we then agree that it should be created by a public authority, even if we don’t yet know what that authority would look like.”

https://www.theguardian.com/global/shortcuts/2017/oct/29/how-the-actual-magic-money-tree-works

Cranbrook town councillors attempt to block mobile catering vans is defeated

Owl says: This is what happens when you fail to build a proper centre in a new town.

“Members differed in their opinions when deciding whether to support a request for annual street trading consent from Richard Filby, who runs popular chip van Flippy Chippy.

Councillor Ray Bloxham said granting consent would go against Cranbrook’s ‘healthy’ image, as it is just one of ten sites selected to join NHS England’s national Healthy New Towns programme. He said: “We are trying to do something about the health of our town.

“We need to, at some stage, make a stand against this type of thing because it is not good.”

Cllr Bloxham said there is a ‘proliferation’ of mobile businesses coming into Cranbrook, which do not pay business rates and sell ‘unhealthy food’ to the community.

Cllr Sarah Gunn said a fish and chip shop is set to open in Cranbrook soon and the council needed to support it. She added: “It is not cheap rent or business rates – there are no concessions.

“A chip van up the road is going to make that very hard.”

Cllr Matt Osborne said Flippy Chippy is ‘well known and liked’ in Cranbrook, and had been involved with a lot of community events held in the town.

He said: “If we take that away when there is a chip shop opening, the backlash will be quite severe – because we are the reason people can not have fish and chips in town anymore.

“I think we will get some kind of movement against that.”

Cllr Bloxham proposed the council objects on the grounds that Cranbrook is a Healthy New Town and the council is ‘trying to promote healthy living’.

He added: “It is unfair competition for businesses trying to set up shop in the town. [Flippy Chippy] has no overheads apart from a bit of petrol.”

Cllr Bloxham’s proposal was defeated by four votes to three.

Cllr Les Bayliss said two other mobile companies sell food in Cranbrook and it would be unfair to object to Mr Filby’s request.

He proposed the council supports the trading consent request, but his motion was also defeated by three votes to two.”

Councillors finally agreed they would send their comments to East Devon District Council, which will decide whether to grant consent at a future date.

Mr Filby’s application is to trade from a catering van every Monday, from 4.30pm to 7.30pm, on Younghayes Road (by the country park).

http://www.midweekherald.co.uk/news/council-split-in-deciding-whether-to-support-street-trading-request-from-popular-flippy-chippy-food-van-1-5749353

“Politicians may finally be catching on: towns now hold the key to Britain’s future”

“… Everywhere we go, people talk about the fate of their town centres with amazing passion, and frustration. Obviously, the Altrincham model of regeneration will not suit everywhere, to say the least. Labour now has a five-point plan for high streets that takes in an end to ATM charges, free wifi, a new register of empty properties, free bus travel for under-25s and reform of business rates. It sounds promising, though perhaps evades something that is glaringly obvious: conventional chain-store retailing is dying fast and high streets need to find new uses. Until this sinks in, the mood of resentment and political disconnection that characterises many of our towns will fester on.

With good reason, the political debate about austerity tends to focus on cuts to such crucial services as adult and children’s social care, education, libraries and public transport. But there is also an overlooked ambient austerity manifested in streets festooned with rubbish and the decline and decay of public space – and it has a huge effect on how people feel about where they live and what politics has to offer them.

… Obviously, young people who are not happy in towns tend to leave. It is the older generations who stick around, and who feel the changes to town life more deeply. Despite the fashionable idea that Britain’s current malaise will be miraculously ended once they begin to die off, they are going to be around for some time to come.

Wherever we go, with good reason, most people we meet have no sense of which bit of government is responsible for this or that aspect of their lives – only that the forces making the decisions are remote, seemingly unaccountable and rarely interested in where they live. Many urban areas have been recently boosted by the creation of “city regions” governed by “metro mayors”; in Scotland and Wales, devolution has brought power closer to people’s lives. In most English towns, by contrast, systems of power and accountability are pretty much as they were 40 years ago.

… What this does to people’s connection with politics is clear. To quote a report by the recently founded thinktank the Centre for Towns, “on average, people living in cities are much less likely to believe that politicians don’t care about their area. Those living in towns are, in contrast, more likely to think politicians don’t care about their area – and won’t in the future.”

There lies the biggest issue of all. The future of our towns will only partly be decided by the high-octane rituals of Westminster debate, and general elections. What really matters is whether they might finally run a much greater share of their own affairs – and, to coin a memorable slogan, take back control.”

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/commentisfree/2018/oct/18/politicians-may-finally-be-catching-on-towns-now-hold-the-key-to-britains-future

“Business rates: one John Lewis store will pay four times the tax of Amazon”

“John Lewis, the embattled retailer whose profits collapsed by 99% in the six months to July, will be charged £10.5m in business rates for its flagship Oxford Street shop from April, according to new figures — a 60% rise in three years.

A short walk away, Selfridges’ flagship shop also faces a 60% hike: its business rates bill will climb to £17.5m. That figure is almost four times the total UK corporation tax paid last year by the online retail giant Amazon: just £4.5m.

The looming threat to the high street will put pressure on the chancellor, Philip Hammond, to throw businesses a lifeline when he delivers his budget on October 29.

This weekend, Helen Dickinson, the chief executive of the British Retail Consortium (BRC), said: “These figures lay bare the shocking burden the business rates regime places on British retailers, who make up 5% of the economy and pay 25% of business rates — £7bn a year. The rates bill is leading to store closures, preventing the reinvention of our high streets, and is damaging communities the length and breadth of the UK.”
The BRC is lobbying for a two-year freeze in business rates until a revaluation in 2021, while the New West End Company, which represents businesses in London’s West End, is lobbying for a rates reduction of £5bn. This would be financed by a 1% tax on online businesses but would not apply to traditional retailers’ internet sales.

High street trading has been squeezed by online shopping, which now accounts for 18.2% of the market, with fewer stores surviving to shoulder the rates burden.

A phased four-year settlement in 2017 will bite hardest from April, with some stores facing huge increases. Burberry, which this month unveiled a new collection, faces a hike for its London headquarters of 186% compared with its rates in 2016-17.

In Manchester, Zara must pay £1.26m and Manchester City football club £2.4m, up from £1.7m in 2016-17.

Altus Group, the property adviser that researched the figures, found NHS hospitals will have to pay £386m and council-controlled state schools £957m.

Nickie Aiken, the Conservative leader of Westminster council, said: “Our taxes should reflect our way of life. I would ask the Treasury: do we want to continue the decline so that the only things left on the high street are charity shops and betting shops?”

Source: Sunday Times (pay wall)

Older people are NOT unproductive

EDDC’s CEO (rapidly approaching retirement age) was once heard to call the district’s retired people “unproductive” …

“Countries could economically benefit from people living longer and should invest more in health to raise life expectancy, a think-tank has urged.

The International Longevity Centre said that as people live longer productivity also increases, in terms of ‘output’ per hour worked, per worker, boosting the economy.

Improving health and ensuring that people live longer should therefore be a key goal for governments, the analysis, based on OECD figures from 35 countries [see graph below], said.

According to the analysis, Iceland, which has one of the healthiest populations in the world, has an employment rate of 83% for 60 to 64-year-olds. This compares to the OECD average of 48.9%.

Ben Franklin, assistant director for research and policy at the think-tank, said that as raising life expectancy results in improved productivity, countries will also be able to collect more taxes from the people in work.

He said: “Public policy and economic forecasters should consider how best to take into account the potential fiscal benefit of better health and not neglect it in discussions of our long run sustainability.”

The report said that the findings are particularly important amid “many debates about long run government spending” where health spending is seen as a “drain on fiscal resources”. …”

https://www.publicfinanceinternational.org/news/2018/08/economic-benefits-people-living-longer-says-think-tank

“CEO pay soars as working wages flatline”

“Pay for chief executives at Britain’s largest listed companies rose more than six times faster than wages in the wider workforce last year. The average boss’s pay packet hit £3.9m. A worker on a median salary of £23,474 would have to work 167 years to earn that.

Chief executive pay at FTSE 100 businesses surged 11% while average worker earnings failed to keep pace with inflation, rising just 1.7%, according to the High Pay Centre’s annual review. The report comes after years of workers’ pay being squeezed by weak pay growth and rising prices. The mean figure for female bosses was £2.8m – less than half the £5.9m average for men – and men got more than women in eight out of 10 companies and organisations that reported figures under government rules

Frances O’Grady, the general secretary of the Trades Union Congress, said: “Workers should get seats on boardroom pay committees to bring a bit of common sense to pay decisions. And the government should put the minimum wage up to £10 an hour to give more workers a fairer share of the wealth they create.” Meanwhile, unions have rebuffed a call from the transport secretary to cap train fare rises if rail workers agree to cap their pay claims accordingly. “As you will be aware, one of the industry’s largest costs is pay,” Chris Grayling wrote to rail unions. The RMT said rail staff would not pay for “the greed of the private train operating companies”.”

Source: Guardian e-briefing

Evo-North: 11 business-led Local Enterprise Partnerships unite to hijack funding formerly controlled by local authorities

Coming soon to a group of Local Enterprise Partnerships on your doorstep.

On 9 July 2018 it was announced that 11 Northern Local Enterprise Partnerships would join together as “Evo-North”:

“Christine Gaskell, chair of the Cheshire and Warrington LEP and vice-chair of NP11, said: “To translate the Northern Powerhouse concept into increasing impact requires new types of conversations across the region and at the heart of this collaboration are common goals which transcend local interests.”

Gaskell noted that the The NP11 will serve as a “strong coherent regional voice” with national government about the potential of an innovation-led economy for the North.”

http://www.publicsectorexecutive.com/Public-Sector-News/council-for-the-north-on-the-way-aimed-at-aligning-businesses-for-northern-powerhouse?dm_i=4WAR,1AG5,WEIUK,3PBB,1

Now we see the full take-over of former local authority funding by this new business-led UNELECTED group as a press release publicising one of its forthcoming events makes clear:

“Following last month’s announcement from Northern Powerhouse minister Jake Berry that 11 LEPs will form the government-funded body ‘NP11’ to act as a modern-day ‘Council for the North’, last week, a cross-party group of MPs called for £100bn investment to transform the north of England’s transport by 2050 and for the date of Northern Powerhouse Rail to be brought forward to 2032.

This makes EvoNorth the perfect opportunity to put your products and services in front of the budget-holders who are actively seeking them. You get the opportunity to ask questions and network with the people responsible for delivering the Northern Powerhouse by attending this exclusive event. You can benefit from branding and exhibition opportunities by contacting the events team on 0161 833 6320, and you can also submit an enquiry or click here to contact us by email.

EvoNorth is an important event and platform where the Northern Powerhouse is discussed and debated across a wide range of topics including skills, employment & apprenticeships; digital revolution and innovation; health and social care; wellbeing & fulfilment; and infrastructure, business and inward investment.

It stands out from the crowd with its immersive series of lively and engaging Q&As, roundtable discussions, workshops and exhibitions. You can be a part of this exciting opportunity by attending, exhibiting or sponsoring: just contact the events team on 0161 833 6320, submit an enquiry or click here to contact us by email.”

https://cognitivepublishing.co.uk/4WAR-1AG5-B6WEIUK95/cr.aspx

So, very, very soon our district, our county and our region will almost certainly be in the grip of these unelected business people who have already shown their conflicts of interest countless times.

And we can do nothing to stop them …. unless the Conservative government which has enthusiastically x nay zealously – driven this initiative is removed from power.

“Local council plans for Brexit disruption and unrest revealed”

Owl wonders what EDDC and DCC (and our Local Enterprise Partnership) have arranged for us.

“Councils around the UK have begun preparing for possible repercussions of various forms of Brexit, ranging from potential difficulties with farming and delivering services to concerns about civil unrest.

Planning documents gathered by Sky News via freedom of information requests show a number of councils are finding it difficult to plan because they are not clear about the path the government in pursuing.

The responses, from 30 councils around the UK, follow the publication of details of Kent council’s no-deal planning, which suggests thatparts of the M20 might have to be used as a lorry park to deal with port queues until at least 2023.

Bristol council’s documents flag up a potential “top-line threat” from “social unrest or disillusionment during/after negotiations as neither leave nor remain voters feel their concerns are being met”.

One of the fullest responses came from Pembrokeshire council, which released a Brexit risk register detailing 19 ways it believes leaving the EU could affect the area.

Eighteen are seen as negative, of which seven are deemed potentially high impact, including the “ready availability of vital supplies” such as food and medicines.

The one positive impact was that Brexit may drive people to move away from the UK, which could reduce demand on council services.

A number of councils, including East Sussex, are worried about the provision of social care after Brexit because of the potential fall in the number of EU nationals working in the sector.

According to Sky, East Sussex’s report says: “There has already been a fall in the number of EU nationals taking jobs in the care sector and the county council has great concerns that the end of freedom of movement will put further pressure on the sector that is already stretched and struggling to deliver the level of care required for our ageing elderly population.”

A number of councils have expressed concern about the disappearance of various EU funding streams and whether thethe Treasury would step in to replace them.

The local authority in the Shetlands released a document saying that tariffs on lamb exports under a no-deal Brexit would mean 86% of sheep farms could expect to make losses. The current figure is about 50%.

One common complaint, according to Sky, was frustration at the lack of central government information about which plan might be pursued. Wirral council said: “Given the lack of detail from government about any proposed deal or arrangements, it is difficult to carry out an assessment that is not purely speculative at this time.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/01/local-council-plans-for-brexit-disruption-and-unrest-revealed

LEP growth: correction or a new-found realism?

It now appears from further reading that the LEP’s very ambitious growth target has been moved from 18 years to 30.

Was it originally an error to give an earlier date or have the goalposts moved? Either way, it shows some common sense.

The new hoped for economic growth rate is now 2.35% pa. This is still quite ambitious, but MIGHT be achievable given continuous best economic conditions throughout the period, whereas 4% growth was clearly totally undeliverable.

Let’s hope this new-found move towards realism will similarly find its way through into our planning structure.

However, we must note that their Strategic Economic Plan predicts 3.06% growth over the next 12 years. That’s doubling the economy in 23 years! Surely, some mistake there?

Anyway, at least the new man seems to have immediately put the 4% nonsense firmly to bed.

However, there is still another caveat: Devon and Somerset are set to have expanding populations and the assumption is that the new arrivals will all be productive – ie not a majority of “unproductive” older incomers. This is expected also to continue over that 30 year period, so the growth per capita could actually be significantly smaller.

“Councils anticipate cutting services to ‘legal minimum’ “

Owl says: But this was always the ambition of Conservatives who much prefer “the big society” (charities and volunteers providing services) and “the small state” (councils providing minimum services). We should not be surprised at that – it is what their voters vote for. But what we SHOULD be surprised at is that it is taking MORE of our money to achieve this, not less.

Labour councils are most pessimistic (83% believe this vill happen within 5 years), as they should be, as they are generally in poorer areas and/or the North where reliance on business rates (which will be the main source of council revenue with council tax) will be tricky, particularly in a post-Brexit economy. But Tory councils, even those in business rate-rich areas are also pessimistic (63%).

A sorry state of affairs to look forward to if this government remains in power: higher taxes, lower (rock bottom) services.

“Two-thirds of councils believe they will only be able to deliver minimum services required by law within five years.

The results of a survey by the New Local Government Network (NLGN) comes as Northamptonshire County Council voted through an action plan to cut services to the bone in order to tackle a likely budget deficit for this year of up to £60m–£70m.

NLGN’s second Leadership Index survey found that councils with social care responsibilities are the most pessimistic, with 88% indicating they will be unable to deliver discretionary services by 2023.

Adam Lent, director of the NLGN, said: “This should be a sober wake-up call for a government that is overseeing a country with ever deepening social divisions and growing inequality.

“Councils are best placed to tackle these problems, and should be receiving greater investment to do this, not seeing their services stripped to the bare minimum.”

Lent said areas stripped of libraries, park maintenance, pothole repairs and advice to residents on care, or housing, were likely to see a narrowing of opportunity for residents.

The survey was carried out from 7th June to 2nd July, with 191 council leaders, chief executives and mayors replying.

Labour-run councils are the most pessimistic with 83% predicting that discretionary services will disappear by 2023, compared to 63% of Conservative-run authorities.

Northamptonshire, on Thursday afternoon, approved an action plan that agreed “spending priorities”. These include safeguarding vulnerable children and adults. Also in the plan is a review of contracts with third party suppliers. Around 70% of Northamptonshire’s services are delivered through external suppliers.

Paul Carter, County Councils Network chairman and leader of Kent County Council, said: “It is clear that unless government finds a long-term solution to council funding and a fairer distribution of resources between authorities, other well-managed county councils could find themselves unable to balance the books.

“The new secretary of state for local government recognises the situation we face, but the Treasury needs to better understand the pressures we are under and support counties with short-term resources for the next financial year, ahead of a longer-term deal in the spending review.”

Northamptonshire will also review its external contracts, including Private Finance Initiative Schemes, as well as its capital programme.

Before the meeting, Andrew Lewer, Conservative MP for Northampton South, tweeted that the county council’s “problems are national as well as local”. He revealed he has written to communities secretary James Brokenshire and health secretary Matt Hancock to request a meeting about the authority’s position.

Pressure on the government to provide further assistance to Northamptonshire also came from Anne Longfield, children’s commissioner for England, who tweeted that her organisation was “writing to ministers asking for them to also ensure no vulnerable children are put at risk by cuts to services”.

It also emerged this week that East Sussex County Council last month agreed plans to reduce services to the bare minimum required by law.

Becky Shaw, chief executive, said: “Careful planning, efficiency savings, innovation, hard work and commitment to our four key priorities have enabled us to make the best use of our dwindling resources, but the pressure created by local residents’ needs cannot be met by income raised locally.

“Having transformed our services and saved £129m since 2010, we need to be realistic about what further budget cuts will mean for the residents, communities and businesses of East Sussex.

“Our core offer paints an honest picture of the minimum that we realistically need to provide in the future and we want to use this as the basis for discussion with the government, partner organisations and residents in East Sussex.”

The Times reported this week that the chancellor, Philip Hammond, has told non-protected departments, including the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government, to earmark further cuts before next year’s spending review.

Some departments believe that these budgets could be cut by as much as 5%, according to the report.”

http://www.room151.co.uk/funding/councils-anticipate-cutting-services-to-legal-minimum/

Tory MP blames Tory government and Tory councillors for Tory council collapse

“A Conservative MP has said ministers need to urgently “learn the lessons” from the financial collapse of Tory-run Northamptonshire county council if they are to prevent more councils slipping into insolvency.

Andrew Lewer, the MP for Northamptonshire South, said that while mismanagement had fuelled the Northamptonshire crisis, the council was also a victim of underlying financial pressures affecting all local authorities with social care responsibilities.

Lewer’s comments will be seen as a breaking of ranks both with the government and with his six fellow Tory MPs in the county, who have up to now sought to present the council’s problems as unrelated to wider funding issues.

His intervention came as Northamptonshire county councillors prepare to take further steps towards drawing up a drastic cuts plan that they hope will close a £70m black hole in the accounts over the next few months.

Lewer has written to the secretary of state for housing, communities and local government, James Brokenshire, and the secretary of state for health and social care, Matt Hancock, to request a meeting to discuss the council funding crisis and ensure the wider lessons of Northamptonshire are heeded.

“A culture of poor performance and decision-making in Northamptonshire county council fuelled the current crisis, but there are bigger, national drivers that also have a significant bearing on the position of not only Northamptonshire, but other local authorities too,” said Lewer.

“Adult social care demand from a rapidly increasingly elderly population is the big elephant in the room. We need to have a discussion on how future local government is structured, financed and delivered, especially for this crucial and costly sector.”

Council social care bosses in England warned earlier this year that care services for older and disabled adults were on the brink of collapse because of funding pressures. The Local Government Association (LGA) estimates that adult social care faces a £3.5bn funding gap by 2025.

Lewer, who became an MP at the last general election, is a former leader of Derbyshire county council, and a vice-president of the LGA.

Northamptonshire councillors will discuss a proposed action plan which calls for “radical service reductions and efficiencies” in areas including children and adult social care, as well as a programme of staff redundancies, at a council meeting on Thursday morning.

Although it is anticipated no precise details of the cuts will be put forward at the meeting, councillors are expected to approve a “hierarchy of priorities” approach to the cuts which will see some services restricted to the legal minimum, and non-core services eliminated altogether.

Councillors will also vote to formally accept a section 114 letter from the council’s director of finance, published last month, which sets out in humiliating detail the extent of Northamptonshire’s financial problems, and the poor decision-making that led to it being declared technically bankrupt in February.

The meeting comes amid growing concern in local government circles that more councils – many of them Conservative-run – could follow Northamptonshire into draconian cuts to try to stave off huge budget shortfalls, with Somerset and Lancashire among those reporting financial stresses.

Last week it emerged that East Sussex county council was drawing up plans to move to a bare legal minimum level of services – which it called a “core offer” – to cope with a growing budget shortfall that if not addressed would see it bankrupt within three years.

A spokesperson for the LGA said: “More and more councils are struggling to balance their books and others are considering whether they have the funding to even deliver their statutory requirements.”

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/aug/08/tory-mp-breaks-ranks-on-northamptonshire-council-crisis

Don’t look to eastern East Devon for jobs unless you have a car

Following on from the post on an increase in buses and frequencies on the western side of East Devon (which has effectively become a commuting suburb of Exeter:

https://eastdevonwatch.org/2018/08/06/western-east-devon-profits-from-extra-buses-eastern-east-devon-gets-nothing-time-to-join-west-dorset/

comes this information:

“Bad buses ruin work chances

Unreliable buses that are too expensive are causing low-income families to miss out on jobs, according to a study by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.

Fewer services mean people are unable to travel long distances and guarantee punctuality, putting commuters at risk of losing their job. Since 2010 funding for buses has dropped £182 million, fares have risen 13 per cent above inflation and 3,347 routes have been cut.”

Source: Mirror page 25