Neil Parish and his “coastal communities” blind spot

Long article by Somerset farmer and Tiverton and Honiton MP on the impact of Brexit on “coastal communities”.

Two-thirds of the article is about the impact of Brexit agriculture, one-third is about its impact on fishing.

https://www.devonlive.com/news/news-opinion/nowhere-impact-eu-membership-been-1865271

Anyone notice a glaring omission? TOURISM!

Does he have any idea of the effect of Brexit on tourism – one of East Devon’s biggest earners? Apparently not.

Oh, and by the way, as with nearly 100% of our railways and most of our utility companies, many British fishing boats are NOT British owned:

“Nearly half of the total English fishing quota is controlled by companies from overseas, according to an investigation into the extent of foreign dominance over UK waters. …”

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/half-of-english-fishing-quotas-controlled-by-overseas-firms-9836970.html

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“Advertised broadband speeds fall dramatically after rule change “

“Broadband providers have dramatically cut their advertised speeds following a recent rule change to prevent misleading claims, a consumer group has found.

Which? analysis of the UK’s biggest broadband providers found that 11 have had to cut the advertised speed of some of their deals since the new rules came into effect in May, with the cheapest deals dropping by an average 41 per cent.

The move has forced a number of providers to admit that they offer 10Mbps or 11Mbps, which is widely considered as the slowest acceptable speed for home internet.

These include BT, EE, John Lewis Broadband, Plusnet, Sky, Zen Internet, Post Office, SSE, TalkTalk and Utility Warehouse.

Previously they all advertised their standard broadband deals as “up to 17Mbps”, around a third higher.

Under the new tougher rules, home broadband providers must now ensure that at least 50 per cent of their customers can achieve advertised speeds during peak times.

They had previously been allowed to advertise “up to” speeds as long as they were available to a minimum of just 10 per cent of customers, resulting in widespread complaints from Government, consumer groups and the public.

Which? found that across all the deals on offer from the 12 biggest providers, the advertised speeds from “up to 17Mbps” to “up to 100Mbps” had decreased by an average 15 per cent. …”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/08/03/advertised-broadband-speeds-fall-dramatically-rule-change/

“Death knell sounds for High St bank: Britons left in lurch as bank closures hit 80 a month”

Meanwhile, word reaches Owl of a near-riot in Sidmouth, where recently the beleaguered Post Office had a queue outside into the street and only two counters open while one customers wanted foreign currency and the other counter had a business customer with several items to deal with.

“Nearly 3,000 branches have shut their doors since 2015, or will do so by the end of this year, depriving communities of essential services.

Added to that is the steep decline in ATMs, which has a devastating impact on the 2.7 million adults who rely almost entirely on cash for their day-to-day lives.

The closures come as the Big Four – Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland – are expected to unveil a combined £13.6billion profit for the first half of 2018.

A study by consumer campaign group Which? showed 2,868 high street branches have closed in the past three years at a rate of almost 80 a month.”

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/997113/bank-closures-atm-customers-misery-barclays-hsbc-lloyds-rbs

Flybe has post-Brexit worries

“Flybe, whose headquarters is in Exeter, is warning that no agreement is in place for services to mainland Europe after Brexit.

With only eight months until Britain leaves the EU, airlines have no legal, commercial or political deals in place.

Flybe said it was already selling fares for next summer, with fingers crossed that common sense would prevail. But it warned there was no certainty.

Chief commercial officer Roy Kinnear said: “Customers are used to buying their flights in advance.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-devon-44951601

“Next CEO Lord Simon Wolfson says business rates accelerating ‘process of failure’ on the high street”

Lord Wolfson does not mention a transaction tax on online purchases – not surprising as Next has a big online presence too.

“The chief executive of Next has called on the government to reform business rates, which he says are accelerating the rate at which high street shops close.

Lord Wolfson, a Conservative Party peer, says the tax on commercial property has not been updated to reflect the increasing popularity of online shopping and needs changing.

“The one thing that I think the government must do is make rates more responsive to today’s reality,” Simon Wolfson told ITV News.

“Let the thriving towns and cities, we should be paying high rates, but the ones that are dying, actually that process of failure is being accelerated by rates that are stuck at levels that don’t reflect today’s reality”. …”

Governance and transparency – How does our Local Enterprise Partnership measure up?

A long read, but if you worry about the unaccountability of our Local Enterprise Partnership (and you should) it is a “must read” – note the requirement for LEPs to be scrutinised by council scrutiny committees:

For good or ill the Government has chosen Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) to play a key part in assisting in the delivery of government policies to support local economic growth.

There are 38 LEPs in England. Through the Local Growth Fund, the government has committed £12 billion to local areas between 2015 and 2021; £9.1 billion of this is through Growth Deals with LEPs. The government also sees LEPs as key to its new industrial strategy. But performance has varied as acknowledged in the government’s publication of July 2018 “Strengthened Local Enterprise Partnerships”.

Amongst other things this paper announced that all the recommendations of last year’s Mary Ney review (see below), and this year’s Public Accounts Committee (PAC) report on Governance and Departmental oversight of the Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough (GCGP) LEP, would be accepted.

Now is the moment to review these three publications which, taken together, amount to a scathing criticism of the way LEP governance arrangements, and government oversight of them, have, to date, been working.

PUBLIC ACCOUNTS COMMITTEE

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmpubacc/896/896.pd

In 2016 the PAC reported on the governance of LEPs and made clear recommendations for improvement which were accepted by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government. [Footnote: East Devon Alliance submitted evidence to this inquiry].

Despite this, things are going seriously wrong and, in the words of the PAC: “the Department needs to get its act together and assure taxpayers that it is monitoring how LEPs spend taxpayers’ money and how it evaluates results.

In the case of CGGP (Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Enterprise Partnership) the LEP could not respond satisfactorily to allegations of conflicts of interest, levelled by an MP. The governance arrangements were not up to standard. There were no comprehensive conflicts of interest policies nor an up to date register of interests for board members. In addition, the LEP was not acting transparently.

In March 2017, the Department applied the nuclear option and withheld the release of money to the LEP. Then, in December 2017, the LEP went into voluntary liquidation, following the Chair’s resignation the previous month.

Key findings by the PAC were that GCGP LEP did not comply with expected standards in public life, particularly in terms of accountability and transparency. Also that the Department’s oversight system failed to identify that GCGP LEP as one which should have raised concerns. Furthermore, that the Department has a long way to go before it can be sure that all LEPs have implemented Mary Ney’s review properly.

MARY NEY REVIEW

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/review-of-local-enterprise-partnership-governance-and-transparency

Which leads us to: the “Review of Local Enterprise Partnership Governance and Transparency”, Led by Mary Ney, Non-Executive Director, DCLG Board, October 2017. This is an internal departmental review but nevertheless surprisingly thorough.

The review makes 17 recommendations (all now formally accepted) covering the following topics: Culture & Accountability; Structure & Decision-Making; Conflicts of Interest; Complaints; Section 151 [financial accounting] Officer Oversight; Transparency; Government Oversight & Enforcement. Just a few of these 17 recommendations of particular importance are highlighted out below.

Many LEPs have codes of conduct reflecting the requirements of company board directors and do not sufficiently embrace the dimension of public sector accountability. This is inadequate as it does not reflect the dual dimension (i.e. public and private) of the role of board members.

The code of conduct, which all board members and staff sign up to, should explicitly require the Nolan Principles of public life to be adopted as the basis for this code. E.g. the notion of integrity whereby holders of public office must avoid placing themselves under any obligation to people or organisations that might try inappropriately to influence them in their work. They should not act or take decisions in order to gain financial or other material benefits for themselves, their family, or their friends. They must declare and resolve any interests and relationships.

Key features of decision-making to ensure good governance and probity should include:

• a clear strategic vision and priorities set by the Board which has been subject to wide consultation against which all decisions must be judged;
• open advertising of funding opportunities;
• a sub-committee or panel with the task of assessing bids/decisions
• independent due diligence and assessment of the business case and value for money;
• specific arrangements for decisions to be signed off by a panel comprising board members from the local authority, in some cases including a power of veto;
• Section 151 officer line of sight on all decisions and ability to provide financial advice;
• use of scrutiny arrangements to monitor decision-making and the achievements of the LEP.

Conflict of Interest declarations must include employment, directorships, significant shareholdings, land and property, related party transactions, membership of organisations, gifts and hospitality, sponsorships. Interests of household members to also be considered.

LEPs to include in their local statements how scenarios of potential conflicts of interest of local councillors, private sector and other board members will be managed whilst ensuring input from their areas of expertise in developing strategies and decision-making, without impacting on good governance.

LEPs will need to publish a whistleblowing policy.

As part of transparency, in addition to the obvious things such as agendas and minutes, LEPs should maintain on their websites a published rolling schedule of the projects funded giving a brief description, names of key recipients of funds/ contractors and amounts by year.

GOVERNMENT RESPONSE – STRENGHTENED LEPs

Click to access Strengthened_Local_Enterprise_Partnerships.pdf

In accepting these recommendations the government in its “strengthened LEP” paper does add a few points of clarification which are worth noting.

Readers may recall our LEP, Heart of the South West (HotSW), proposing in its 2015 prospectus “towards a devolution deal” to deliver, amongst other things, a world-class integrated health and care system within our communities. A prospectus produced without any public consultation. Well, the government has taken on board a further PAC criticism that it has not been clear about the current role, function, and purpose of LEPs.

The government now says it will set all Local Enterprise Partnerships a single mission to deliver Local Industrial Strategies to promote productivity.

Each Local Enterprise Partnership’s overall performance will be held to account through measures agreed in their delivery plans. The Government will work with Local Enterprise Partnerships to ensure that they have these plans in place by April 2019.

In addition, Government will commission an annual economic outlook to measure and publish economic performance across all Local Enterprise Partnerships and benchmark performance of individual Local Enterprise Partnerships. In the light of HotSW aim of a 4% annual growth rate and record-breaking productivity growth, starting this year, this might prove to be an interesting exercise.

Other points on topics such as increasing diversity of board members are covered in the previous Watch blog:

https://eastdevonwatch.org/2018/07/27/government-proposes-shake-up-of-local-enterprise-partnerships/

MEANWHILE

The House of Commons Communities and Local Government Committee inquiry into Effectiveness of local authority overview and scrutiny committees was also investigating LEPs and made this recommendation in December 2017 [East Devon Alliance submitted evidence to this inquiry as well]:

“The Government to make clear how LEPs are to have democratic, and publicly visible, oversight. We recommend that upper tier councils, and combined authorities where appropriate, should be able to monitor the performance and effectiveness of LEPs through their scrutiny committees. In line with other public bodies, scrutiny committees should be able to require LEPs to provide information and attend committee meetings as required.”

Click to access 369.pdf

Many councils which bought commercial properties are in big trouble

“The timing couldn’t have been more perfect. At a debate over the role of councils in the commercial property market, held by retail landlord Ellandi in central London last month, one notable panellist was conspicuous by her absence.

Karen Whelan, chief executive of Surrey Heath council, had been due to argue against the motion that local authorities were “absolute beginners” in the property investment game, but her attention had been diverted by a more pressing issue. That morning, the struggling department store chain House of Fraser had announced its intention to shut 31 shops through a controversial insolvency procedure known as a company voluntary arrangement (CVA).

The Camberley store was among those earmarked for closure. Surrey Heath had paid £17.6m for the property only 18 months earlier, following its £86m purchase of Camberley’s main shopping centre, The Mall (since renamed The Square). House of Fraser’s imminent departure left Surrey Heath staring at a loss of rental income and a destruction of the property’s investment value.

Whelan and the council’s leader, Moira Gibson, issued a joint statement saying they had bought the House of Fraser store “as part of the wider regeneration of the town and not as an investment”. They said they were “disappointed” by news of the CVA but added: “Because Surrey Heath is in control of the freehold of this site, like other sites we have bought, it enables us to continue our regeneration proposals.”

Critics of councils’ increasing forays into commercial activities found the response laughable. Just over a year ago, The Sunday Times raised questions over the boom in commercial property deals being struck by local authorities. Empowered by the 2011 Localism Act and funded by cheap loans from an obscure subsidiary of the Treasury, local authorities ploughed £3.8bn into industrial parks, offices and shops between 2013 and last year, according to consultancy Carter Jonas and landlords’ group Revo.

To say that town halls have a questionable record in commercial ventures is something of an understatement. Hammersmith & Fulham in west London came close to cataclysm in the early 1990s when it amassed £6.2bn of risky derivatives bets (it was saved only when the House of Lords ruled them void).

Concerns about councils’ dealmaking go beyond property. In recent years, their pension funds have started to take a much more active approach to investing in infrastructure, allocating more of their spending to assets ranging from ports to power networks — seen as an ideal match for their long-term liabilities. Yet with that new approach has come greater risk.”

In November, a City fund poured tens of millions of pounds of councils’ pension money into projects run by the outsourcer Carillion — weeks before it went bust. Pensions Infrastructure Platform (PIP), which invests on behalf of councils from Strathclyde to the West Midlands, paid £400m for 10 private finance initiative contracts from Standard Life Aberdeen. Among those assets was a 50% stake in the unfinished Royal Liverpool Hospital. PIP was left nursing heavy losses when Carillion’s collapse in January halted the hospital’s construction. Work has yet to resume.

Councils are under huge financial pressure as they prepare for the withdrawal of central government grants by 2019-20. Last year, the Local Government Association warned they faced a £5.8bn funding gap by 2020 — even if they cut costs by closing all children’s centres, leisure centres, libraries and museums, and turning off every street light. By borrowing from the Public Works Loan Board (PWLB) at 2% and using the money to invest in properties yielding 5% or more, local authorities generate a profit that can be redeployed on front-line services.

Some private sector operators have accused them of behaving like primitive hedge funds exploiting an arbitrage, predicting dire consequences when the property market cracks and the Treasury is left on the hook for deals funded 100% with debt.

Surrey Heath’s experience with House of Fraser could be seen as one of several canaries in the coal mine. A wave of administrations and CVAs by retail tenants such as Select and Poundworld has punched holes in shopping centres’ rental incomes. Even the most sophisticated operators — British Land, Hammerson and Intu — have admitted to feeling the effects of retail insolvencies in recent weeks. Councils, who lack expertise and the scale to move tenants around their portfolios, could find the changing environment far harder to deal with.

Lord Oakeshott, chairman of the property fund manager Olim, said local authorities such as Surrey Heath were “completely failing to face reality”. He said: “The professionals see them coming a mile off and, sadly for council ratepayers and taxpayers generally who are lending them the money, most councils haven’t a clue. They are often the only buyers of their local struggling shopping centres and in a collapsing market they’ve been paying well above last year’s prices. You couldn’t make it up.”

While local authorities such as Portsmouth have ventured beyond their boundaries and struck deals purely to generate income, most have bought assets in their immediate area with a view to running or redeveloping them.

Gibson said she still felt that Surrey Heath’s purchase of its House of Fraser store had been “the right thing to do” because otherwise the council would have been a “hostage to fortune” in terms of deciding the future of the empty site. She said the council had filled holes left by insolvent tenants at The Square by moving in the local museum and creating a table tennis room.

“A year on, we have a lot more retail experience than we started with, and to be fair, I don’t think we can do worse than some of the people in retail at the moment,” she said. “We’re used to dealing with difficult budgets.”

There are instances where council intervention appears to have worked. Gerry Clarkson, leader of Ashford council in Kent, said he grew so tired of receiving complaints about the local shopping centre after taking over in 2013 that he instructed his staff to buy it. Clarkson, a former chief executive of the London Fire Brigade, said the council then revived Park Mall by offering six-month rent-free periods to independent retailers. Ashford is also working on a separate £75m development to build a Picturehouse cinema and a Travelodge.

“We were well aware of the government’s attitude to cutting funding for local authorities, and rather than cry into our beer, we started a strategy of becoming like a business,” he said. “In time, we will redevelop Park Mall and put flats above it, but for now, it’s thriving.”

Agencies such as Cushman & Wakefield and Knight Frank have earned significant sums for advising councils on deals. Charlie Barke, head of retail capital markets at Knight Frank, defended the prices some were paying for properties.

“These guys don’t have the luxury of waiting for what might be the bottom of the market,” he said. “Councils need to take action now, while there’s still some footfall and life in these town centres.”

Barke said the super-low interest rates offered by the PWLB mitigated some of the risks of tenants leaving, as the average shopping centre’s rent income typically covered the interest cost by two or three times. He said councils could mitigate risk further by paying down their loans over time, setting aside excess cash in a “sinking fund” and using professional advisers to manage the assets day-to-day.

Among local authority pension funds, the appetite for infrastructure assets is only growing as they seek to slash the fees they pay to external fund managers.

Last summer, a group including the £14.3bn West Midlands Pension Fund bought the Isle of Wight ferry company Red Funnel for a rumoured £320m — well above the expected price of £250m.

Councillor Ian Brookfield, chairman of the West Midlands Pension Fund committee, insisted it took a prudent approach. “It’s not just a bunch of guys sitting in a smoke-filled room any more,” he said. “We have some of the best advice you can purchase. We’ve done our proper due diligence and looked at the risk factors. It gives us a good, stable return.”

Brookfield added: “Red Funnel was our first direct investment and we are actively looking for more.”

Pension funds chase returns

While councils have been gambling on properties to address funding pressures and the need to regenerate town centres, their pension funds have been ploughing cash into infrastructure assets in a desperate hunt for yield.

For years, overseas counterparts, such as Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System and Australia’s IFM Investors, snapped up water firms, power networks, ports and airports. They were keen to buy assets that matched their liabilities and delivered healthy returns.

Quantitative easing and the dive in gilt yields have forced council schemes to look beyond bonds for returns. Restricted on the amount of risky assets they can hold, they have turned to infrastructure, However, cheap debt and huge pots of money chasing a finite supply of assets have pushed values to eye-watering levels.

Westminster has played a part in the spending spree. Keen to keep a lid on debt, the former chancellor George Osborne ordered the 89 local government pension funds in England and Wales to pool their assets — now £263bn — and plough the money into British infrastructure.

Source: Sunday Times (pay wall)

50, 60, 70? Get a job, or else …..

“… Falling numbers of immigrants – who tend to be younger – since the EU referendum means the UK population is ageing faster than expected, which poses profound challenges for the country. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that NHS spending will need to almost double from 8% of GDP in the early 2020s to 13.8% by the mid-2060s because of the demographic shift. Without policy changes, public debt relative to the size of the economy could rise to 283% by 2067 from around 80% today.

Debate about age and the economy has recently focused on the plight of millennials. However, older workers face rampant workplace discrimination, according to MPs on the women and equalities select committee, even though treating older people differently at work is illegal under the Equality Act 2010.

Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the Bank of England, recently drew angry comments when he said the UK economy was in a “menopausal” phase – past its productive peak. Although he soon apologised, observers pointed out that women over 50 are the fastest-growing group of workers in the UK and are far from past their economic peak.

Changes to the state pension age for women, which is gradually rising to meet the male threshold of 65, are part of the reason for the increase. Meanwhile, there are now more than 10 million over-50s in work – double the 1990s number and accounting for almost a third of the overall UK workforce.

French says younger people might worry about large numbers of older workers making it harder for them to find a job, or about seeing their career progression blocked. But she argues that companies could always create more jobs: “They can put someone in my job with me – that’s never going to be a problem.”

Economists call this idea the lump of labour fallacy, arguing that there is not a fixed amount of work in the world, and that the more jobs are added to an economy, the bigger it can become. The same argument is applied to immigration, where economists agree migrant labour stands to boost host economies rather than steal domestic workers’ jobs.

There are, however, fears that growing numbers of older workers could hold back the growth of productivity and wages, as the older we get the slower we become and the more outdated our skills might be. According to the Oxford Economics thinktank, ageing societies with a bigger share of over-60s workers see lower wage growth. It found eurozone wage growth depressed by as much as 0.3% annually.

More funding for training in later life can help. Ben Franklin, economist at the International Longevity Centre, says: “It may well be that in 10 years’ time the peak age for productivity is 60 rather than 50. Age may be a drag on per capita growth at the moment, but it doesn’t have to be if you can translate health gains into productivity gains.”

The International Monetary Fund fears that if baby boomers continue retiring at 60-65, Britain and other advanced economies could be overwhelmed by pensioners. It reckons ageing societies have the potential to slow economic growth by as much as 3% by the middle of the century, while also increasing the strain on the welfare state.

Franklin says keeping people in the workforce is the most efficient thing to do. “We need older workers, even if they’re less productive. You may be less productive as a 70-year-old, but if you’re not in the workforce, your output is lost altogether.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/28/older-workers-retirement-age-economic-growth-wages

Plan unveiled to achieve HotSW Local Enterprise Partnership productivity target!

No – it’s not a Heart of the South West plan. They are still searching for suitable levers of power to grasp.

It’s not a detailed plan following up the Government’s White Paper:“Industrial Strategy – Building a Britain fit for the future”, Nov 2017, with its five foundations of productivity (Ideas, People, Infrastructure, Business Environment and Places) either.

Last week John McDonnell, shadow chancellor, unveiled plans for an investment revolution. He proposed all new governments should be obliged to set productivity targets with a revamped Bank of England, and act on them.

McDonnell commissioned Graham Turner, a City economist who advises hedge funds and investment banks, to produce a report. In an interim report, published in December, Turner found our financial system was taking money from sectors such as manufacturing and lending it to invest in property.

Promising growth in new tech sectors was overwhelmingly concentrated in and around London. Politicians and regulators have not ensured that banks play their part in supporting the growth of new businesses. Instead, banks have entrenched their focus on unproductive lending. Turner’s team recommended fundamental transformation of our financial system. Alongside the Bank of England’s (BoE) existing inflation target it should set a 3% target for annual productivity growth, backed by new powers that steer the financial system towards investment to maximise productivity growth.

Most comment of this idea was critical. As David Smith, Sunday Times economic editor, pointed out: by decade, productivity growth averaged 2.2% in the 1970s, 2.4% in the 1980s, 2.3% in the 1990s, 1.4% in the 2000s, and just 0.5% since 2010. It is not impossible: there have been 11 years in the past 45 when productivity has grown by 3% or more, years of strong economic growth or falling employment.

Monetary policy and financial stability, the Bank’s responsibilities, have no direct links to productivity and adding to its targets merely makes it more likely that it will miss its central one, controlling inflation.
Last autumn, Mark Carney, BoE governor, criticised those who wanted the central bank to solve problems such as productivity. The BoE “cannot deliver lasting prosperity and it cannot solve broader societal challenges,” he said, adding that calls for it to solve poor UK productivity “confuse independence with omnipotence”.

Philip Aldrick, economics editor of The Times, however, took a different view:

“The thing is, though, the closer you look at the powers the central bank has, the more Mr Turner’s proposals seem like common sense. Since the 2008 crisis, the Bank has been given a vast array of tools. It can ration household or business lending, it can drain or flood an economy with finance, it can direct banks how to behave, it can deploy £750 billion of cheap liquidity to grease the financial system, it can inject billions of pounds into the economy through quantitative easing and it can change interest rates.”

“Despite Mr Carney’s claim, the Bank is almost omnipotent but chooses voluntary impotence because using its power would be to stray into politics. For Mr Turner, the Bank’s “deliberate passivity” is contemptible when “credit guidance” could help to fix the nation’s productivity woes. What’s the point of all that power if the Bank doesn’t use it, especially since 2013, when its mandate was updated to “support the economic policy objectives” of the government? If nothing else, his paper asks the question.”

When our Council Leaders accepted HotSW’s ambition, without any detailed action plan, to double economic growth in 18 years, primarily by elevating productivity growth to levels never before sustained, did they realise just how radical a plan might be needed? And will they now be backing Labour’s or something equally tranformative?

John McDonnell’s Guardian article:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/20/britain-investment-revolution-labour-party

Interim Report (good source of financial data):

Click to access Financing-Investment-Interim-Report.pdf

Final Report:

Click to access Financing-investment-final-report-combined.pdf

By 2036 one-third of people in Devon will be over 65 – but don’t worry, they will have PLENTY of houses available!

Owl is puzzled. Our Local Enterprise Partnership says we need 50,000 new homes in the next 5 years (published in 2017 – so say until 2023):

Click to access SEP-Final-draft-31-03-14-website-1.pdf

(page 8)

Yet the Office for National Statistics says that the population of Devon will increase by just over 52,000 by 2026 (see below). Averaging a very low estimate of low 2 people per home that would mean we would need 26,000 new homes IN TOTAL in Devon in the next 8 years, not 50,000.

In fact, the same Office of National Statistics says average occupancy is 2.4 persons per household – so a more accurate figure would be 21,666 extra homes needed in Devon by 2026 – again NOT 50,000!

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/bulletins/familiesandhouseholds/2017

Someone has their sums badly wrong. 50,000 by 2023 or 21,666 by 2026.

Is it the Office of National Statistics or our LEP with its preponderance of developers and landowners?

“The population of Devon will increase by 52,100 by 2026, according to the Office for National Statistics.

In 2016 the population was 778,800. By 2026 it is expected to reach 830,900, a rise of 6.7%.

Every two years the ONS estimates how the population of England will change over the next 25 years.

Statisticians study birth and death rates, and look at how the county’s population is ageing.

In Devon the percentage of the population made up by pensioners is expected to rise from 24.8% in 2016 to 27.6% 10 years later. And by 2036 the ONS thinks over 65s will make up almost a third of the area’s residents. …”

https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/population-devon-grow-52100-1667958

“Pensioner households paying out nearly £9bn in income tax per year”

“Households with one or more people who are past state pension age are paying out nearly £9bn in income tax a year, analysis has found.

Of the 8.7m so called pensioner households in the UK, 1.4m of them contain a worker generating taxable income.

The research by pension and investment provider Aegon found that the number of people still working past state pension age had increased from 12 per cent in 1997/98 to 17 per cent today.

A growth in people working past pension age was accompanied by a rise in average earnings, as pensioner couples saw their weekly wages after inflation increase 30 per cent from £410 to £534 today.

Steven Cameron, pensions director at Aegon said:

“Gone are the days when reaching state pension age meant a total end to work. Many people are choosing to keep working and earning, perhaps by cutting back gradually on the amount of work they do, even once they’ve started taking their pension.

These people are contributing significant amounts to the nation’s finances through the tax they generate while also helping the broader economy through their work.”

Cameron also said that despite the current climate being favourable for pensioners, with many living on decent incomes, this “golden era for pensioners” could not last forever.

“Both final salary pensions and inflation busting increases to the state pension are unlikely to continue indefinitely so it’s important that society is changing with more people able to choose to work past traditional retirement ages,” he added.”

http://www.cityam.com/287427/pensioner-households-paying-out-nearly-gbp9bn-income-tax

“Retail space returned to landlords in high street crisis, Colliers International reveals”

Owl says: would Tesco be calling for a “level playing field” between high street and online shopping if they had not just closed Tesco Direct – their online retailer!

“Retail space equivalent to about 180 football pitches has been handed back to landlords this year, in a stark sign of the challenges facing the high street.

A day after House of Fraser announced that it would be closing more than half of its stores, an analysis by Colliers International shows that 11.6 million sq ft of retail has been “lost” to administrations, company voluntary arrangements and planned store closures this year.

The property consultancy said that this included the two million sq ft of retail space that Marks & Spencer planned to offload by closing 100 stores.

Fears are growing for the future of high streets as more retailers struggle and try to close stores through CVAs — the contentious insolvency process that allows retailers to shut shops and cut rents at landlords’ expense. New Look, Carpetright and Mothercare are among those that have entered into CVAs this year and House of Fraser’s proposed CVA has infuriated many in the property industry. The British Property Federation, which lobbies for landlords, has called for an urgent inquiry into the practice.

However, retailers say that they are facing a toxic mix of high rents, rising wages and costs and a structural shift in the industry as more people shop online. Yesterday, Dave Lewis, chief executive of Tesco, told the BBC that the burden of business rates, which hits retailers with large store estates hard, was to blame for many of the present woes.

He said that Tesco paid more than £700 million a year in business rates and that “you need a level playing field . . . between an online digital world and a traditional retail store base model”.

Dan Simms, co-head of retail agency at Colliers, said that the retail space at risk of closure this year was already more than the 10.7 million sq ft handed back in 2016, the year BHS collapsed.

“What we are seeing now are a lot more retailers closing stores,” he said. “It is much more broadly based so it feels like things are markedly worse.”

Analysis by Harper Dennis Hobbs shows that about 25 million sq ft of retail space was lost between 2008 and 2010 …”

“Rural businesses say the government’s review of national parks could fuel economic growth in the countryside”

This will be a REAL test of what EDDC councillors’ priorities: a clean, green environment (remember Diviani promising this years ago!)

https://eastdevonwatch.org/2015/03/30/from-the-archives-1-clean-green-and-seen-promise-east-devon-tories-in-2011/

or more concrete.

“… Country Land and Business Association president Tim Breitmeyer said boosting economic growth and productivity in designated landscapes should be at the centre of the review.

“Designated landscapes are crucial to the wellbeing of the nation, providing opportunities not only for visitors but most especially for those who live and work there,” he said.

The crucial challenge is to strike the right balance between ensuring designation that delivers natural beauty, alongside encouraging the right types of economic activity.

Together, this more positive balance will sustain these areas and create thriving communities, said Mr Brietmeyer.

“Most businesses within designated landscapes experience significant opposition and hostility to development of any kind.”

Success would see more landowners, users, park authorities and conservation boards working together to identify opportunities to deliver sensitive development, said Mr Breitmeyer.

This could help improve the use and enjoyment of these unique areas, he added.

Two-thirds of people in England live within 30 minutes of a National Park or AONB, with visitors contributing more than £6bn each year to the local economy.

Game-changing

Emma Marrington, senior rural policy campaigner at the Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE), described the review as “potentially game-changing”.

It was an opportunity to shine the spotlight on national parks and AONBs – and to consider whether there should be new additions to the current network of designated landscapes. …”

http://www.rsnonline.org.uk/rural-groups-react-to-national-park-review

Young people stuck in low-paid, insecure jobs

And that’s why “great employment figures” are not to be trusted.

“… The number of 21- to 30-year-olds working in precarious, often low-paid work has exploded, according to the report. In that 20-year period, numbers of young people working in private social care has increased by 104%, while in hotels and restaurants the figure is 80%. The generational pay gap has increased in real terms from £3,140 in 1998 to £5,884 in 2017 for someone working a 40-hour week. …”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/04/growing-gulf-between-pay-of-younger-and-older-people-says-tuc

“Oligarchs’ ‘influence and dirty money threaten UK’”

“A rising Tory MP warns that government inaction on laundering is a gift to Putin and has let rich Russians think they own Britain.

The Tory chairman of the foreign affairs select committee has launched a withering attack on the government’s failure to tackle the effect of Russia’s “dirty money” on Britain, ahead of the publication of a damning report this week.

Tom Tugendhat, one of the Conservative Party’s brightest hopes, criticised the UK’s “lethargic response” to Russian money-laundering and organised crime that has been enabled by London’s financial and property markets.

The MP said the government had failed to deal with oligarchs who cleaned their illicit wealth by buying townhouses in Belgravia and Mayfair, while also allowing Russian companies to raise money in London despite being under sanctions.

Writing on The Sunday Times website, Tugendhat said the regime of President Vladimir Putin had been emboldened: “Our lethargic response . . . is taken as proof that we don’t dare stop them. This is no longer just a financial problem,” he writes. “Over the years Moscow has turned from being a corrupt state to an exporter of instability. London’s markets are enabling the Kremlin’s efforts.”

Tugendhat spoke out ahead of an excoriating select committee report tomorrow entitled Moscow’s Gold: Russian Corruption in the UK. The findings will embarrass Theresa May’s government, which has professed to take a tough line with Moscow over the poisoning of the Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, in Salisbury.

However, the MP for Tonbridge and Malling points out that Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, was able to “trade bonds in London days after the attempted murders”.

He said there was a link between “oligarchs’ wealth and the power of the Kremlin” and highlighted evidence to his committee that some rich Russians now believe “they own Britain”. “Russian corruption and influence has become a matter of national security,” he writes.

Tugendhat is particularly concerned about lax controls fostering Russian influence including the London flotation of EN+, an energy company controlled by Oleg Deripaska, one of Russia’s wealthiest men who is closely linked to Putin.

MI6 is known to have been enraged when the firm was able to use the London Stock Exchange last year to raise an estimated £1bn. The company, chaired by Lord Barker, a former Tory energy minister, has been linked to the Russian military, including the production of a Buk missile that Dutch investigators said downed flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014, killing 298 people.

The float was waved through by regulators despite EN+ being part-owned by VTB, a Russian state-owned bank subject to EU and US sanctions. The bank lent the firm £697m to help fund the flotation.

Deripaska was himself hit by tough US sanctions imposed after the Skripal poisoning. Last week, he stepped down from the EN+ board in an attempt to free it from sanctions.

“Oligarchs, who depend on Putin no matter how rich they are, have been encouraged to invest in everything from real estate to pharmaceuticals, providing Russia with leverage,” writes Tugendhat.

“It isn’t just about theft through tax evasion but enabling entire nations to be robbed of their democratic rights.”

Garry Kasparov, the Putin critic and former world chess champion, said the flow of corrupt money from Russia into the West was part of a “subtle” Kremlin strategy to “launder and spread influence”. Kasparov, who stood for the presidency in his homeland in 2007, also criticised Europe for failing to wean itself off Russian oil and gas reserves following the war in Ukraine in 2014. He said this had handed Putin leverage over the EU.

“Much of Europe still depending on Russian energy over four years after Putin invaded a European country is damning, as is the willingness of many in Europe to continue with pipeline plans that would only increase Putin’s leverage and cash flow,” Kasparov said. “It’s a war, and your enemy cannot be your partner at the same time if you want to win.”

Source “The Sunday Times” (pay wall)

When is a not worker a worker?

A friend of mine has lost his job at RBS a month or so back. Has to sign on every other week, but is not unemployed as long as he proves that he is looking for work. He has to ‘work’ 16 hrs a week looking for work to get his NI paid. But he’s not unemployed; he’s just not working.”

Comment at:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/18/ikea-halts-new-preston-store-as-uk-profits-fall

At least one business is profiting from those extra 20,000 deaths (so far) since winter!

“A surge in the number of deaths helped funeral provider Dignity get its financial year off to a strong start as it battles to get back on a positive footing after warning it was struggling against fierce competition.

Britain’s only listed funeral operator revealed a 2pc increase in revenues for the 13 weeks to March 30 on the back of an 8pc increase in deaths, holding its underlying operating profits steady at £37.5m. …”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/05/14/dignity-turnaround-efforts-lifted-higher-death-rate/

“18 month delay on the draft Greater Exeter Strategic Plan (GESP)”

Owl says: Seems those traffic jams into and out of Exeter are not going to get better any time soon.

“… The preparation of the GESP has been held up by a number of factors. These include a significant and ongoing review of national planning and housing policies, a very high response to the “call for sites” with over 700 sites made available, and the need to resolve complex transport issues associated with the plan, particularly in the Exeter area, including extensive modelling, roadside interviews and scheme assessment.

“This work is still ongoing and will inform a key element of the GESP strategy. It is not expected that the transport work will be ready before the end of 2018, given the complexities and in particular the need to ensure that Highways England are content with the work.

“The NPPF review is expected to be complete in the summer of 2018. These factors mean that the draft plan is not likely to be ready before spring 2019.

“In order to avoid issues of Purdah associated with the local elections in May 2019 it is therefore now proposed that the draft plan should be published in June 2019.”

The purpose of preparing the Greater Exeter Strategic Plan is to have a joined-up vision and aspirations for the area.

The local authorities are working together, engaging with stakeholders and communities, to prepare a new joint plan.

The GESP will sit above District-level Local and community Neighbourhood Plans, taking a long-term strategic view to ensure important decisions about development and investment are coordinated. …”

https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/18-month-delay-draft-greater-1505396

“Number of zero hours contracts rises by 100,000 in 2017, says ONS”

“The number of zero hour contracts in the UK labour market rose by around 100,000 last year according to the Office for National Statistics.

The agency reported that in its latest survey of firms there were 1.8 million contracts that did not guarantee a minimum numbers of hours in the year to November 2017. The equivalent number in November 2016 was 1.7 million. …”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/zero-hours-contracts-number-ons-gig-economy-latest-a8317646.html

Bank of England and Big Business take over productivity drive from the amateurs – where does this leave our Local Enterprise Partnership?

Our LEP members are pretty much one-trick ponies representing primarily the interests of their companies or their councils. Are they now quietly being frozen out?

“British business leaders announce further plans to boost firm-level productivity at Bank of England

The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has chaired a meeting of UK business leaders who have announced a new set of commitments to help UK firms improve their productivity.

As the countdown to Brexit begins, Be the Business – the campaign organisation formed to tackle the UK’s longstanding productivity challenge – met with the governor to set out plans to make the UK more productive and competitive.

Attendees included the leaders of Amazon, BAE Systems, the British Museum, BT, CBI, Cisco, EY, KPMG, the John Lewis Partnership, McKinsey & Co, Rolls-Royce and Siemens UK.
UK productivity grew by 0.9 per cent in Q3 and 0.7 per cent in Q4 of 2017.

While positive, this follows a decade of under-performance and Britain remains 25 per cent less productive than Germany. In its latest inflation report, the Bank of England highlighted poor productivity growth as a key factor limiting the UK’s capacity to grow to around 1.5 per cent per year.

That’s why some of the UK’s leading businesses have committed to bringing world-class management and technology practices to thousands of British businesses in their communities and supply chains. This includes:

Support for a national digital platform, launched today, giving businesses best in class advice on how to improve.

A new mentoring programme, launching nationwide later this year, to help SMEs build essential management skills – supported by senior staff from companies including GSK, the John Lewis Partnership and Siemens

The national roll-out of Productivity through People – an executive education programme for SME leaders

A new business productivity index and a series of tailored programmes targeted specifically at SME productivity

The Bank of England has been at the forefront of highlighting the need for UK firms to improve their productivity. In March 2017, the organisation’s chief economist Andy Haldane warned that technological diffusion from business “leaders to laggards” has slowed. This message was echoed by chancellor Philip Hammond, who announced a call for evidence in the Spring Statement to understand how to best help the UK’s least productive businesses to learn from, and catch-up with, the most productive.

At the meeting, held on 9 April 2018, Carney said: “UK productivity has severely under-performed since the financial crisis, resulting in a lost decade for real incomes and a lower speed limit for the economy. Reviving productivity growth is critical for the UK’s long-term economic prosperity, and part of the answer lies in spreading best practice across a much wider range of firms. Be the Business are playing a key role in achieving that, helping businesses to identify and implement ways to improve their productivity.”

Also attending the meeting was Charlie Mayfield, chairman of the John Lewis Partnership and Be the Business, who commented: “Getting our businesses to improve their performance to the same level as our international competitors is the biggest economic challenge we face as a country. The UK’s businesses have the solution in their grasp. That’s why we’re building a movement that will recruit tens of thousands of companies across the UK to ensure we’re match fit to compete post-Brexit.”

Note:

Be the Business is a new business-led organisation created to close the UK’s productivity gap. Chaired by Charlie Mayfield, chairman of the John Lewis Partnership, Be the Business is spearheading a business-led drive to help companies across the UK improve their performance.

It is supported by some of the UK’s most senior business leaders including Tera Allas (McKinsey & Co), Olly Benzecry (Accenture), Sir Roger Carr (BAE Systems), Roger Connor (GSK), Ian Davis (Rolls-Royce), Carolyn Fairbairn (CBI), Doug Gurr (Amazon), Dame Fiona Kendrick (Nestle), Sir Richard Lambert (British Museum), Prof Juergen Maier (Siemens UK), Sir Charlie Mayfield (John Lewis Partnership), Gavin Patterson (BT Group), Phil Smith (Cisco), James Stewart (KPMG), Steve Varley (EY) and Nigel Whitehead (BAE Systems).

Be the Business’s advisory board members have committed the first 100 mentors to a leading nationwide mentoring programme. Be the Business will report on the programme roll-out at its next advisory board meeting, to be hosted by the chancellor, in September 2018.

Productivity through People is a 12-month regional productivity programme for SME leaders. Initially launched by BAE Systems and the University of Lancaster in January 2017, participants undertake a series of masterclasses, led by the leading business school faculty and industrial visits to some of the UK’s leading businesses, alongside tailored mentoring. Programmes are currently underway in Lancaster, Bath and Glasgow, and a national roll-out is in development for 2019.

Office for National Statistics, Labour productivity, UK: October to December 2017:
https://bit.ly/2uRexXl

Productivity puzzles, speech given by Andrew Haldane, chief economist at the Bank of England, at the London School of Economics on 20 March 2017:
https://bit.ly/2EwlP2q

https://www.bethebusiness.com/2018/04/british-business-leaders-announce-further-plans-to-boost-firm-level-productivity-at-bank-of-england/